NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 1 - Offseason Edition

Mulvy wrote:

Moses should be going right (I assume) all day to Matterson in any event.

That's part of the reason I picked Niukore to begin last season lol

my tv broke wrote:Any requests for footystatistics.com ?

I know some people have suggested things but I didn't note them at the time.

Also @Blindside, I will look into the grid stuff you mentioned

Possible comparison function? You are tossing up between Munster and Walker and you want to compare their stats for the year. Just quicker instead of flicking between each team/player

Also on the stats side of thing, maybe including the game score on each line?. Help know that say Ado-Carr's 58 was an outlier due to the fact Storm won 40-6 or something like that.

my tv broke wrote:Any requests for footystatistics.com ?

I know some people have suggested things but I didn't note them at the time.

Also @Blindside, I will look into the grid stuff you mentioned

Hey man, Im not sure if Im up to date, but last time I looked you had historical stats back to 2018. The set up was fantastic with filters etc. Any chance you could add another year or three of data to that. 5 years would be awesome to get time trends for certain players!

Enchanted Glossy Flamingo wrote:

I still have PTSD from the end of last season

Hey if I can forgive him for turning a two week injury into like 10 weeks in 2018, anyone can right?

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

The 2018 stats/filters are still there, just below the "current" season, which is still 2019.. still undecided about how best to show it all.

I did start working on importing prior years, from Steve Nichols spreadsheet.

The ability to easily compare players is something I want to add

Hey man, Im not sure if Im up to date, but last time I looked you had historical stats back to 2018. The set up was fantastic with filters etc. Any chance you could add another year or three of data to that. 5 years would be awesome to get time trends for certain players!

my tv broke wrote:

The 2018 stats/filters are still there, just below the "current" season, which is still 2019.. still undecided about how best to show it all.

I did start working on importing prior years, from Steve Nichols spreadsheet.

The ability to easily compare players is something I want to add

Hey man, Im not sure if Im up to date, but last time I looked you had historical stats back to 2018. The set up was fantastic with filters etc. Any chance you could add another year or three of data to that. 5 years would be awesome to get time trends for certain players!

Yeah man, its fantastic the way it is. Just more data would be great.

Yeah I have Steve's spreadsheets too and they were my go to last season, but your site is more user friendly so I would for sure switch to that, but Steve had more years.

Reminds me, I should get in touch with him. Fantasy season starting so we are probably due a coffee!

I've only got 7 FRF's on my short list (for starting 13, haven't really looked at cash cows yet):

Haas, Fifita, Kapow, James, Mofo, Knight, Carrigan.

Haas is a captain option. If Fifita is fit there's a chance he could rival Haas' scores for cheaper. James, Mofo, Knight and Carrigan are perceived to be undervalued. Kapow will be fair value but is a rd 12 gun and with AFB and Jurbo possibly missing early rounds, could get a bump in minutes (but that's what I thought would happen last year and Des just refused - remember Kapow minutes watch??)

Surely I missed someone? Any other ideas someone wants to debate?

There are props every season that are priced around 40 that we all talk ourselves into becoming 50+ scorers. Never seems to eventuate. Mofo and Knight remind me of that

my tv broke wrote:There are props every season that are priced around 40 that we all talk ourselves into becoming 50+ scorers. Never seems to eventuate. Mofo and Knight remind me of that

Well worked pretty good if you went AFB last year. Not so much for LAM, Kevans etc.

Did anyone have Manu Ma'u last year? I had no idea he had the 10th highest avg in fantasy. There you go.

Mulvy wrote:

Well worked pretty good if you went AFB last year. Not so much for LAM, Kevans etc.

Wallace a couple years ago?

Tolman wasnt bad last year was he? I cant remember....

but yeah, predicting a significant role change at prop seems to get overstated a lot.

As discussed many times, its the assumption that PPM doesnt change as minutes increases which seems to blow out predictions. Mofo for example,,,

in 2018 the kid played on average 31.9 min per game at 28.4 average, ppm=0.89
In 2019 he played 47 min per game, for 40 fantasy points, ppm=0.86 but in games over 50 minutes he average 46 on 58.7 minutes (thanks MTB) ppm=0.77

Just gotta be careful about how much these things can drop away....

That said, I love the way he plays from a fantasy perspective and I'd quite like to own him this year.... Just need to figure out the middle rotation for the Titans this year and take a punt as to whether he will be a 50 min prop or not.

He has some injury issues last year too - wrist was it? played through from memory, so there may be an uptick due to that as well.

Mulvy wrote:Did anyone have Manu Ma'u last year? I had no idea he had the 10th highest avg in fantasy. There you go.

He went well under the radar aye. Kept churning out tries and TAs. crazy scoring. I watched him closely as rival teams I was up against had him....killed me

Mulvy wrote:Did anyone have Manu Ma'u last year? I had no idea he had the 10th highest avg in fantasy. There you go.

He was my last trade for Matterson last year, ended up working out pretty well

Did it in R21 and got 72, 79, 66, 58, 49 while Matterson got 82, 41, 58, 46, 39. Wish I had 1 more trade at the backend of the year though

Could be good signs for Matterson as I remember Ma'u having a great partnership with Moses. Personally think Matterson is better on the edge as well

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

Wallace a couple years ago?

Tolman wasnt bad last year was he? I cant remember....

but yeah, predicting a significant role change at prop seems to get overstated a lot.

As discussed many times, its the assumption that PPM doesnt change as minutes increases which seems to blow out predictions. Mofo for example,,,

in 2018 the kid played on average 31.9 min per game at 28.4 average, ppm=0.89
In 2019 he played 47 min per game, for 40 fantasy points, ppm=0.86 but in games over 50 minutes he average 46 on 58.7 minutes (thanks MTB) ppm=0.77

Just gotta be careful about how much these things can drop away....

That said, I love the way he plays from a fantasy perspective and I'd quite like to own him this year.... Just need to figure out the middle rotation for the Titans this year and take a punt as to whether he will be a 50 min prop or not.

He has some injury issues last year too - wrist was it? played through from memory, so there may be an uptick due to that as well.

Yeah I think teams that just put two guns at FRF did pretty well from memory.

Napa was another but not really in the same category. He got a couple of tries early last season but he was otherwise not so good.

I've fallen into the trap of expecting more from those types of forwards in years gone by. I avoided it, to a degree, last year.

I love Mofo tho, he might be the AFB of this year

Mulvy wrote:Ryan James

2015 Avg 40.5 from 19 games at 2nd row (mostly 80 min, removing his one injury game) five tries
2016 Zero games starting from 2nd row. Avg 60.6 at prop.
2017 Zero games starting from 2nd row. Avg 47.8 at prop.
2018 Avg 44 from 5 games starting 2nd row, one try (one game was reduced minutes though)
2019 First two rounds starting 2nd row for scores 25 and 42. Pretty sure he was rotated through the middle before being subbed off at 60 and 71 minutes respectively.

So if playing middle he's value, if edge only some value but maybe not enough.

My memory hasn't gone yet then, this confirms it for me, Edge NO, middle YES for James

my tv broke wrote:Somewhat pointless stat, but I was playing around with data queries.

In 2019, starting fullbacks/wingers/centres averaged a combined 35.8 in winning teams vs 29.8 in losing teams (didn't count anyone that played less than 60 mins)

So on a very basic level, outside backs in winning sides outscore outside backs in losing sides by about 6 points.

This makes me want to pick a winger playing outside Shaun Johnson

Chewie wrote:Looks like the gang is getting back together, anyone seen @Stew, @Foina, or @SI

The wonderful world of alts.

mattnz wrote:

hall is a quality international that was coming back from serious injury last season. Could play bmoz at center and hall on the wing.

This was my thoughts. Bmoz played centre in WCC last year

1.Teddy
2.Tupou
3.Bmoz
4.Manu
5.Hall