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    NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 1 - Offseason Edition

    Ben Marlin
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    Post by Ben Marlin on Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:28 pm

    @Rabbits21 wrote:
    So you reckon Luciano plays about 55mins?

    Garner to play 80?
    Sounds about right
    Maybe slightly more minutes for Leilua
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 on Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:38 pm

    Even Haas post season games are ridiculous

    65 v Eels in 58-0 game playing 80 mins (probably a lot of time spent under goalposts)

    50 in 50 mins v Fiji PM XIII (1 try)

    46 in 37 mins from interchange vs NZ (174m, 20 tackles)

    56 in 46 mins from interchange v Tonga (123m, 32 tackles)

    Quality opposition for 3 of 4 of those

    Rapture_NRL
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    Post by Rapture_NRL on Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:44 pm

    @Camo123 wrote:Even Haas post season games are ridiculous

    65 v Eels in 58-0 game playing 80 mins (probably a lot of time spent under goalposts)

    50 in 50 mins v Fiji PM XIII (1 try)

    46 in 37 mins from interchange  vs NZ (174m, 20 tackles)

    56 in 46 mins from interchange  v Tonga (123m, 32 tackles)

    Quality opposition for 3 of 4 of those


    $1m though lol it's a lot to fork out. But that does show how good he is playing in other teams and in different roles and still scoring well... Maybe he's the set and forget
    Milchy
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    Post by Milchy on Thu Jan 16, 2020 10:56 pm

    @Camo123 wrote:Even Haas post season games are ridiculous

    65 v Eels in 58-0 game playing 80 mins (probably a lot of time spent under goalposts)

    50 in 50 mins v Fiji PM XIII (1 try)

    46 in 37 mins from interchange  vs NZ (174m, 20 tackles)

    56 in 46 mins from interchange  v Tonga (123m, 32 tackles)

    Quality opposition for 3 of 4 of those


    If he got those scores first 4 weeks this year he'd drop over $100k
    StormTrooper96
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    Post by StormTrooper96 on Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:19 pm

    @Milchy wrote:

    If he got those scores first 4 weeks this year he'd drop over $100k
    I don’t remember who said it but it was a good point that if you start without Haas, you probably won’t get him in until around R19 and then you’ll only have the highest scoring fantasy player for the last 6 rounds. You would be too hard up on cash early on to try aim to have him by R5-6, then he will only play a handful of games around the origin period and even still you’ll probably be paying top dollar for him. I remember when Cook started last year at around 900K and people were worried about getting him in early. Even though Haas doesn’t really have much upside, neither did Cook yet he is a set and forget captain, Broncos main forward, plus as stated, his bad games are his low 50’s. I will definitely be looking at having Haas in every one my iterations.

    Everyone may as well start trying to fit 20 players in $8.81 mil
    Welshy
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    Post by Welshy on Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:24 am

    @StormTrooper96 wrote:
    I don’t remember who said it but it was a good point that if you start without Haas, you probably won’t get him in until around R19 and then you’ll only have the highest scoring fantasy player for the last 6 rounds. You would be too hard up on cash early on to try aim to have him by R5-6, then he will only play a handful of games around the origin period and even still you’ll probably be paying top dollar for him. I remember when Cook started last year at around 900K and people were worried about getting him in early. Even though Haas doesn’t really have much upside, neither did Cook yet he is a set and forget captain, Broncos main forward, plus as stated, his bad games are his low 50’s. I will definitely be looking at having Haas in every one my iterations.

    Everyone may as well start trying to fit 20 players in $8.81 mil

    Guess people starting without Hass will be hoping he starts the season stringing together low 50s, same with any other top level gun

    How often has the top rated fantasy player backed up the following season by doing the same?
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo on Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:28 am

    @Welshy wrote:

    Guess people starting without Hass will be hoping he starts the season stringing together low 50s, same with any other top level gun

    How often has the top rated fantasy player backed up the following season by doing the same?


    Pretty much always? (Smith) 

    I'm in the start Haas camp. Haven't had a go at budgeting yet but the only three players I DEFINITELY know I'll pick are Haas, Papenhuysen and Tedesco. Ted even looks like being an early-season POD judging by other comments.
    Welshy
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    Post by Welshy on Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:30 am

    @rhinoceroo wrote:


    Pretty much always? (Smith) 

    I'm in the start Haas camp. Haven't had a go at budgeting yet but the only three players I DEFINITELY know I'll pick are Haas, Papenhuysen and Tedesco. Ted even looks like being an early-season POD judging by other comments.

    That's finishing the season.

    I'm looking at say the first 5 rounds, where they might drop enough cash to make it worthwhile waiting and probably hoping with Haas.
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo on Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:14 am

    @Welshy wrote:

    That's finishing the season.

    I'm looking at say the first 5 rounds, where they might drop enough cash to make it worthwhile waiting and probably hoping with Haas.

    People waiting might get super-lucky and see Haas get an HIA 4 and tank in value, but it would be luck. Other than that, what's your best case? He drops 100k and you have to find 900k from somewhere to buy him in amongst all your other early-season trade fixes?
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 on Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:55 am

    I'm intrigued to see if similar people who don't want to start with Haas didn't start with Cook last year or if there are people who started with Cook last year but don't want to start with Haas this year (if people can remember) - for myself I originally wasn't including Cook but I ended up starting R1 with him, while Haas I think will be in every draft I do

    If there are people who started with Cook and don't want to start with Haas I'm a bit confused as Cook's 2019 starting price was 969k (2018 average of 64.9) while Haas is only 30k more at 999k [2019 average of 67.8] with a 200k increase in the salary cap
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms on Fri Jan 17, 2020 5:39 am

    @Camo123 wrote:I'm intrigued to see if similar people who don't want to start with Haas didn't start with Cook last year or if there are people who started with Cook last year but don't want to start with Haas this year (if people can remember) - for myself I originally wasn't including Cook but I ended up starting R1 with him, while Haas I think will be in every draft I do

    If there are people who started with Cook and don't want to start with Haas I'm a bit confused as Cook's 2019 starting price was 969k (2018 average of 64.9) while Haas is only 30k more at 999k [2019 average of 67.8] with a 200k increase in the salary cap

    Didn't start Cook last year and probably won't be starting Haas

    For reference I had a captain I believed to be on the same tier(Fifita) and will be looking to do the same this year (Cook/Bateman)

    The difference in prices is the MN has changed. Haas is priced at nearly a 70 point average while Cook was priced at 64. It's not about Haas "only" costing 30k. A player with Haas's average using last years MN and pricing system would be priced at 969k. Even without a down game he is still priced at a premium
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke on Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:11 am

    The biggest concern for me with Haas is the coach and how they rotate their forwards.

    Broncos start the year in Townsville, rnd 2 at suncorp, 530 game at Cubs in round 3, and 630 game in penrith in end 4. Chance that a few of those are hot weather.

    Haas is obviously very capable of big mins, but if no one is injured, our middle rotation will be haas lodge tpj ofa flegler and carrigan.

    Carrigan is in the leadership group now, and flegler has just had his contract upgraded. Ofa is an origin player, and TPJ/lodge will always get big mins.

    If haas is on the field I've no concerns over his ability to score points but if he starts the year off with 50 to 55 mins then he might find it hard to justify his price tag.
    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:47 am

    @my tv broke wrote:The biggest concern for me with Haas is the coach and how they rotate their forwards.

    Broncos start the year in Townsville, rnd 2 at suncorp, 530 game at Cubs in round 3, and 630 game in penrith in end 4. Chance that a few of those are hot weather.

    Haas is obviously very capable of big mins, but if no one is injured, our middle rotation will be haas lodge tpj ofa flegler and carrigan.

    Carrigan is in the leadership group now, and flegler has just had his contract upgraded. Ofa is an origin player, and TPJ/lodge will always get big mins.

    If haas is on the field I've no concerns over his ability to score points but if he starts the year off with 50 to 55 mins then he might find it hard to justify his price tag.

    I think this is the best point made for the 'not going with Haas camp'. Essentially the risk is a role change. Otherwise I completely agree with Rhino. I was going to be starting Haas, until I read the above and now Im a little worried Smile

    But the issue is, as others have said, it could be very tough to get Haas into your team in the first 10 rounds (if you dont start him). You really cant plan for that as none of us have any idea how injuries will play out, or who will be the surprise booms, and the surprise busts will be that we will all have to deal with. One could be in the position where you make the right call on paper by not starting Haas (i.e. he drops in price by 100k+), but you are forced to make some, perhaps poor trades and serious comprimises just to find the dough to bring him in....

    I think Haas vs no Haas to start the season is going to be one of the defining decisions of the year.

    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo on Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:03 am

    @Milchy wrote:

    If he got those scores first 4 weeks this year he'd drop over $100k

    Should play more minutes than that in first 4 weeks, surely?

    But I’m still on the fence with Haas.
    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:06 am

    @Rabbits21 wrote:
    I don’t know if I can go with Edwards again after last season, most people sold him by round 5 or so and I holded out more and more keeping the faith  til round 8 or 9 and it just kept getting worse!

    He averaged 42ish if I recall so he will cost probs a little over 600k, I just dunno if there is enough value there.

    If Verrills isn’t on the bench for Rorters or gets injured in trials then I would consider Friend.

    I would want Friend playing at least 70mins and it worries me at about the 60-61min mark Robbo will take him off and play Verrills. If I got Friend I’d want him playing 80mins and averaging about 60 not playing 60-61mins and averaging around 47-48ish

    Did he really end up averaging that high? I'd be surprised if he did. My memory was that he was absolute garbage at the start of the season (perhaps with a negative thrown in there) (thats when I owned him Smile, got dropped, then got a recall ~round 11?? and probably hit around what we all expected him too from then on. Interested to get confirmed finishing average for him if anyone has the stats, and then if possible a break down of pre and post dropping Smile

    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 on Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:25 am

    Nah overall average fair bit lower at 36.9

    Pre dropping (R1 - R5): 20.6 average (including 1 on wing)
    Post dropping (R10 - R25): 42.26 average
    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:31 am

    @Camo123 wrote:Nah overall average fair bit lower at 36.9

    Pre dropping (R1 - R5): 20.6 average (including 1 on wing)
    Post dropping (R10 - R25): 42.26 average

    Thanks mate, just realised MTBs site has all the stats from last year too - yeah!!
    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:44 am

    How many games does someone have to play in 2019 before they stop getting a 'low games' discount?

    VSDT is 6 I think, cant recall what NRLF is...
    Iron Mike
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    Post by Iron Mike on Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:56 am

    @Camo123 wrote:I'm intrigued to see if similar people who don't want to start with Haas didn't start with Cook last year or if there are people who started with Cook last year but don't want to start with Haas this year (if people can remember) - for myself I originally wasn't including Cook but I ended up starting R1 with him, while Haas I think will be in every draft I do

    If there are people who started with Cook and don't want to start with Haas I'm a bit confused as Cook's 2019 starting price was 969k (2018 average of 64.9) while Haas is only 30k more at 999k [2019 average of 67.8] with a 200k increase in the salary cap

    I didn't start Cook last year and I'm firmly in the camp that was a mistake, and will start with both Hass and Cook this year. Cook because I prefer him over Smith(starts a little slower than end of season) and McInnes (injury comeback).
    The thing with Hass is that he is a machine and will only get better, those first few rounds in the heat when the other forwards are starting to get tired, Hass will just roll over the top of them.
    Other bonus is the difference in average between Hass and the next best prop in Fantasy is the greatest of any position, so you are gaining points at prop and as captain. Locked in. Better to find value elsewhere if value is what you are looking for.
    Iron Mike
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    Post by Iron Mike on Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:59 am

    @Milchy wrote:

    If he got those scores first 4 weeks this year he'd drop over $100k

    He ain't playing 37 mins and 46 mins from the interchange for the Broncos, more likely he plays 65 minutes for a ppm.

      Current date/time is Sun Jan 19, 2020 10:39 pm