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    NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 1 - Offseason Edition

    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 on Tue Jan 14, 2020 8:53 pm

    @WT2K wrote:

    Mbye 60 Reynolds/Walters 20 would be my guess
    So his average was 33 in 2019 I’m not sure if there is enough upside there tbh with him, he may average around 40 and I don’t think that’s enough to justify me buying him!

    Koroisau, Egan and B. Brailey seem like better options right now.
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    Post by Chewie on Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:30 pm

    @Rabbits21 wrote:
    So his average was 33 in 2019 I’m not sure if there is enough upside there tbh with him, he may average around 40 and I don’t think that’s enough to justify me buying him!

    Koroisau, Egan and B. Brailey seem like better options right now.
    Would Mbye get WFB/HOK?
    His scores will probably be more consistent than some of the other cheaper WFBs, and he's likely to scoot out of dummy half...and who doesn't like a good scoot? Beer
    Might be worth a punt.
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    Post by Chewie on Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:33 pm

    @Honey Badger wrote:Happy 2020 everyone. I thought there might be some activity on here! Dont they normally reveal player prices by now?
    CK got back from Hols on Monday and dropped the first fantasy related article at the end of the work day. I'm expecting to see a few more articles in the next few days.
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 on Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:54 pm

    @Chewie wrote:
    Would Mbye get WFB/HOK?
    His scores will probably be more consistent than some of the other cheaper WFBs, and he's likely to scoot out of dummy half...and who doesn't like a good scoot? Beer
    Might be worth a punt.
    Didn’t think of that, yes I’d probs take a punt on him at WFB
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    Post by code delta on Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:55 pm

    @Chewie wrote:
    CK got back from Hols on Monday and dropped the first fantasy related article at the end of the work day.
    And surely we are sick of hearing about Latrell
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    Post by Camo123 on Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:00 pm

    I would have thought the players who are rumoured to play new positions (Watson & Mbye for argument sake) who played multiple positions would get DPP before they could get their new position (2RF and HOK) respectively

    If Mbye is WFB/CTR and Watson is WFB/HOK or HLF/HOK it’d make them more appealing picks for me. Guess we won’t know until game is released
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    Post by Milchy on Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:03 pm

    @Chewie wrote:
    Would Mbye get WFB/HOK?
    His scores will probably be more consistent than some of the other cheaper WFBs, and he's likely to scoot out of dummy half...and who doesn't like a good scoot? Beer
    Might be worth a punt.

    Mbye played 5 games at hooker in 2017 and averaged 36.4. 80 minutes every game. 

    He averaged 33.8 last year, so I wouldn't expect a tonne of value, even if you can pick him at CTR
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    Post by Rabbits21 on Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:19 pm

    @Camo123 wrote:I would have thought the players who are rumoured to play new positions (Watson & Mbye for argument sake) who played multiple positions would get DPP before they could get their new position (2RF and HOK) respectively

    If Mbye is WFB/CTR and Watson is WFB/HOK or HLF/HOK it’d make them more appealing picks for me. Guess we won’t know until game is released
    I wonder if Newcastle really will use Connor Watson at lock, or will they just use him at lock for the first 28-30mins and then bring off Brailey after 60mins and have Watson play the last 20mins at hooker. If Watson is just gonna get around 50mins I wouldn’t see it as enough to justify buying him.

    But then again depending on his price and if he gets WFB status I may look at him.
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    Post by Camo123 on Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:25 pm

    We’re just going to have to face the brutal truth that CTRs are going to suck without Bateman and Nikora
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    Post by Chewie on Tue Jan 14, 2020 11:13 pm

    @Milchy wrote:

    Mbye played 5 games at hooker in 2017 and averaged 36.4. 80 minutes every game. 

    He averaged 33.8 last year, so I wouldn't expect a tonne of value, even if you can pick him at CTR

    Thanks for the sobering stats Milch!
    Mbye
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    Post by manlybeaver on Wed Jan 15, 2020 1:08 am

    I remember latrell playing fb before the roosters signed teddy what was his average that year ?
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    Post by Welshy on Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:46 am

    @Camo123 wrote:We’re just going to have to face the brutal truth that CTRs are going to suck without Bateman and Nikora

    Same as last year mate, we didn't expect those those 2 be as viable as they were, same with Burns

    A few will come to the fore, just got to select the right ones
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    Post by robelgordo on Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:22 am

    @manlybeaver wrote:I remember latrell playing fb before the roosters signed teddy what was his average that year ?

    NRL.com said he averaged 32 that season, but again, they are using a season average to discuss him playing FB when he played multiple positions that year. 16 games at FB, 8 on the wing. I’d guess he went better than 32 at the back and his wing scores dragged down the avg? Also not sure it matters but that was the year Pearce pretended to fuck a dog and the Roosters ran close to last.
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    Post by Honey Badger on Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:10 am

    @Welshy wrote:

    Same as last year mate, we didn't expect those those 2 be as viable as they were, same with Burns

    A few will come to the fore, just got to select the right ones

    I'll be going as cheap as i can to start with in this position. Not interested in someone like mbye who might be slightly undervalued but price still falls in that mid-range price range.
    Remember last year we had burns, bird, nikora but plenty of people paid extra for holland because he was slightly under priced.
    Happy to wait on Latrell too and see how he goes. He might be a good pickup before the first bye if not selected for origin.
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    Post by Rapture_NRL on Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:22 am

    @Milchy wrote:

    I'll definitely be considering Croft.

    He's been a pretty consistent scorer except for the start of 2018 when everyone had him.

    Should go OK in a team where Cam Smith isn't around to keep the ball away from him

    Feeling like Croft is the SJ type player in that he has great potential but suffers from expectation and he feels the pressure. Some players start their career off with a hiss and roar from adrenaline pretty much blocking everything out, but once they get a bit more comfortable, they start overthinking. Just a thought

    He'll still be someone I look at as a value buy
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    Post by Rapture_NRL on Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:34 am

    @StormTrooper96 wrote:I was honestly about to write something about how I thought Brimson was a massive trap; however, I just had a look at his stats last year and he averaged 42.75 points when playing an 80 minute fullback role (8 games). He should be priced around 32 points so that makes him 10 point under-priced. I also like to think that has he gets older he may get better and this could even rise more.

    Here's hoping there's no sex-tape scandal to make him Dedwards 2020 haha
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    Post by Rapture_NRL on Wed Jan 15, 2020 8:35 am

    @StormTrooper96 wrote:

    I think I would like to see his pre-season games before making a concrete decision. He can get lazy so I expect him to go missing here and there; however, you would have to think Bennett gets the best out of him. Old Wayne loves a fixer upper. Plus Latrell played alongside Teddy so you would think he would've learnt a thing or two. I think he would rely heavily on breaking tackles though because he isn't the quickest back youve ever seen. Would lose GK, probably make up for it in kick return metres but. He reminds me of a Karmichael Hunt type runner

    He's quicker than he looks because of his stride. Pretty sure he clocked one of the top 10 speeds of 2019
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    Post by my tv broke on Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:23 am

    @StormTrooper96 wrote:

    I think I would like to see his pre-season games before making a concrete decision. He can get lazy so I expect him to go missing here and there; however, you would have to think Bennett gets the best out of him. Old Wayne loves a fixer upper. Plus Latrell played alongside Teddy so you would think he would've learnt a thing or two. I think he would rely heavily on breaking tackles though because he isn't the quickest back youve ever seen. Would lose GK, probably make up for it in kick return metres but. He reminds me of a Karmichael Hunt type runner

    I'm tempted to go with Latrell just because of his ability for 30 point plays. I'm not really expecting a massive turn around in the type of player he is (big bursts and big quiet periods), but at FB there is a chance he is forced to become more involved.

    The ol 'wayne will get the best out of him' doesn't always ring true. Roberts didn't find his groove at all after moving down to Souths. Bennett tends to give players a long leash in terms of personal life/eating habits/drinking/training habits/etc, so will be interesting to see how Latrell goes.

    I hope he kills it tbh.
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    Post by No Worries on Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:27 am

    @robelgordo wrote:

    It matters when the entire analysis is based on trying to project his FB scores to determine his value against his price. Using a season points average that covers two positions makes a difficult exercise a nonsense IMO.

    Right.

    So we should be taking the season average of those games at which all players played centre. Break that down to an average for each data point. Compare that data set with an equivelent data set for Latrell. Determine the +/- % performance of Latrell against each data point.

    Now we should be taking the season average of those games at which all players played fullback. Break that down to an average for each data point. Increase that by the Latrell performance factor and you get his predicted season average at FB. Assuming his able to perform at the same level compared to his peers. The bonus of this method, it automatically removes goal kicking.
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    Post by Chewie on Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:49 am

    I can see Latrel sitting on 15 fantasy points in the 75th minute of the game and still end up with 50 points at full time

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