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    2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

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    Boozecluez

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Boozecluez on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:15 am

    @StormTrooper96 wrote:And stay tuned for dual position updates for several players this week, with Sam Burgess (FRF), Adam Blair (2RF), James Fisher-Harris (FRF), Trent Merrin (FRF), Hymel Hunt (WFB), Sia Soliola (FRF), Aidan Tolman (2RF), Nathan Ross (CTR), Asipele Fine (2RF), Brad Parker (CTR) and Bunty Afoa (FRF) among those set to become available in a second position in Fantasy. More updates will come after round 12.

    With JFH now available in the front row, makes him close to a keeper there if he can average close to 50
    Throw in Arrow and Kikau and probably won't have to worry about FRF this year unless you want Fifita

    Nice problem to have


    Last edited by Boozecluez on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:16 am; edited 1 time in total
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    sajjos

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by sajjos on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:16 am

    Haven't seen Mansour in many teams here but could bring in a cheapie


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    Cap'n Ranta

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Cap'n Ranta on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:20 am

    @Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:I have Isaako, Hiku and Kennar. Is it safe to downgrade Kennar to a cow?

    Assuming you are looking for some cash. Kennar has the same story Isaako did last week. All it will take is 1 big game till their prices start going up again. That being said without hindsight and any reliable base stats (5 tackles, 100m, 2 KD and a missed tackle = 15 = base price) his value is a hard question to answer. Personally I expect him to be able to hold this price or thereabouts with a few attacking stats here and there but further cash needs another big game with 2 tries (he'll just get to hit 40+).

    Looking at whether it is "safe" doing this is a whole other question. Before I start I'm an Isaako fan, but remember his time in the team with Kahu returning is limited.

    I know he's a really good player etc. etc. but fantasy bias is likely clouding judgement here. He's played really well during his time but the back 5 for the broncos to start the season was:

    1. Boyd.
    2. Oates
    3. Roberts
    4. Bird
    5. Kahu  

    1 injury is all it takes for him to be in the squad. Isaako is 2nd choice FB, would replace Kahu or Oates and with Roberts/Bird out Kahu would move to CTR with Isaako on the wing. Hell an injury to Milf or Knik has Bird go to the halves, Kahu to CTR and Isaako to wing. Maybe with Gilletes injury when Kahu is back Oates goes to the 2nd row.

    When Kahu is back who takes the kicking tee?

    Isaako has scored well and has a safe floor due to his kicking (3 goals, 6 tackles, 100m = 22). When Kahu returns (and assuming no new injuries) his spot and scoring comes into question. This could be rd 9-12 according to nrl.com so you have 2 weeks of guaranteed Isaako (barring an early return) and then maybe further weeks but with no guarantee of any kicking duties.

    Summary: Isaako and Hiku are fine CTRs for now and Kennar (even with a big game) is likely spent as a cow. However, don't count on Isaako beyond the next 2 weeks to cover your CTR position when you make this trade. You are counting on injuries to continue or Wayne to change his mind..............
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    Finch

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Finch on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:38 am

    Someone posted Surgess only played 3 games in the 2nd Row, if true, why is he getting DPP?

    I'm all for it, but this opens up a can of worms.
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    Rippin and Tearin

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:39 am

    I haven't seen the Warriors play the last 2 weeks. Can someone fill me in as to how Mannerig has been used? Has he been playing in the middle?

    Also thoughts on this week? Does he get named at 13 you think? or on the edge?
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    Milchy
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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Milchy on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:40 am

    @Finch wrote:Someone posted Surgess only played 3 games in the 2nd Row, if true, why is he getting DPP?

    I'm all for it, but this opens up a can of worms.

    Surgess was already 2RF, he just got FRF added.

    They have a new system this year, can make decisions based on team role rather than just counting final team lists
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    White Lightning

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by White Lightning on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:40 am

    @Cap'n Ranta wrote:

    Assuming you are looking for some cash. Kennar has the same story Isaako did last week. All it will take is 1 big game till their prices start going up again. That being said without hindsight and any reliable base stats (5 tackles, 100m, 2 KD and a missed tackle = 15 = base price) his value is a hard question to answer. Personally I expect him to be able to hold this price or thereabouts with a few attacking stats here and there but further cash needs another big game with 2 tries (he'll just get to hit 40+).

    Looking at whether it is "safe" doing this is a whole other question. Before I start I'm an Isaako fan, but remember his time in the team with Kahu returning is limited.

    I know he's a really good player etc. etc. but fantasy bias is likely clouding judgement here. He's played really well during his time but the back 5 for the broncos to start the season was:

    1. Boyd.
    2. Oates
    3. Roberts
    4. Bird
    5. Kahu  

    1 injury is all it takes for him to be in the squad. Isaako is 2nd choice FB, would replace Kahu or Oates and with Roberts/Bird out Kahu would move to CTR with Isaako on the wing. Hell an injury to Milf or Knik has Bird go to the halves, Kahu to CTR and Isaako to wing. Maybe with Gilletes injury when Kahu is back Oates goes to the 2nd row.

    When Kahu is back who takes the kicking tee?

    Isaako has scored well and has a safe floor due to his kicking (3 goals, 6 tackles, 100m = 22). When Kahu returns (and assuming no new injuries) his spot and scoring comes into question. This could be rd 9-12 according to nrl.com so you have 2 weeks of guaranteed Isaako (barring an early return) and then maybe further weeks but with no guarantee of any kicking duties.

    Summary: Isaako and Hiku are fine CTRs for now and Kennar (even with a big game) is likely spent as a cow. However, don't count on Isaako beyond the next 2 weeks to cover your CTR position when you make this trade. You are counting on injuries to continue or Wayne to change his mind..............

    Excellent post mate. Isaako seems to be a better gk than Kahu so I hope Isaako retains his spot.
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    Finch

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Finch on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:40 am

    Milchcow wrote:

    Surgess was already 2RF, he just got FRF added.

    They have a new system this year, can make decisions based on team role rather than just counting final team lists

    So the 4 game rule has gone?
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    Rippin and Tearin

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:42 am

    Also, and apologies if this has already been done, what are the pros and cons of Su'a v Gosiewski? is there a clear winner?
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    Milchy
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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Milchy on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:45 am

    @Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Sua with a BE of -8
    Maloney with a BE of -6

    Can't really turn down Sua can we?

    If he is going to continue with a bench role, of course we can. He's not going to score 30 point tries every week. If you trade in any old guy with a negative BE you'll end up running put of trades and having a squad full of average Joes who managed one good score all season.

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    White Lightning

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by White Lightning on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:46 am

    @Rippin and Tearin wrote:Also, and apologies if this has already been done, what are the pros and cons of Su'a v Gosiewski? is there a clear winner?

    Why not both.
    Gos started, Su'a on bench but Su'a seems to have a much higher ceiling.Gos plays round 13.
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    Finch

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Finch on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:46 am

    From what I have seen of Mannering, he comes on as a second rower, left side. Blair has been playing close to 80 I think as a lock. However with Pulu injured now, Mannering should start, just unsure where...
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    Cap'n Ranta

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Cap'n Ranta on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:46 am

    @Fortitude wrote:Are people actually considering Matterson?

    Ive only watched the game, and haven't watched the stats very closely, but he has scored a few very fortunate trys. Im not sure how to what extent his scores are inflated by those tries.


    60 minute games:

    30 tackles, 75m,

    80 minute games:

    40 tackles, 100m

    His tries have mostly been scooping up a deflected ball so no LB, no TBs. 8 points is nice but its hardly the big play you think it might be. Shows he backs up to support /  has good game sense (or is super lucky) but his more normal 1TB and 0.5 an offload would be what we expect based on average.

    Has averaged 1.5 MT a game and almost 0 penalties/errors.

    Take that in and you get a 37 point guy in 60 minutes or a 50 point guy in 80 mins. Obviously he has been great at finding the line so far (4 tries in 6 games) which has helped his average to be 55 points a game.

    Looking ahead if he averages 45 points which I think is fair you can expect him to peak at around 780k (+39k). Average of 52 gets him to 818k (+77k) so even in an optimistic scenario there is not enough cash to justify a trade so you'd really want him to be final 17 material.

    Personally I have him in a similar boat to Koroisau who is reliant on getting closer to 80 mins (for the tackle stats) they need to be considered a gun player in the HLF position. They both have DPP but their non HLF spot isn't exactly great. Both also "likely" play rd 13 (pending origin selections). Both also excel in more defensive game scripts due to their high workrate (Api makes more in the middle but misses a few more too). In an attacking game (i.e. rd 3 vs the knights Matterson got 43 in 80 mins) he doesn't get enough work and isn't so much of an attacking threat so if the roosters find some form he'll likely have some poorer scores than you'd like.

    Without being able to guarantee his minutes (lots of injuries for the chooks so far in game) he's a real risk buying at this point. Well done to those that got in previously but I can't see the upside for him to be a HLF or 2RF keeper. Scores should be fairly consistent if you'd just like a high floor (40+) HLF player.

    For those reasons I'm not considering trading him at this point but if I had him I'd be happy to hold till rd 13 at least to see what I have.

    My attitude is also helped by the fact that even if I'm wrong a 52 average hardly makes him unaffordable later. Just think there is more risk than upside bringing him in this week.
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    Milchy
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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Milchy on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:47 am

    @Finch wrote:

    So the 4 game rule has gone?

    Yes, they now add DPP after rounds 6, 12 and 18
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    Finch

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Finch on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:48 am

    Milchcow wrote:

    Yes, they now add DPP after rounds 6, 12 and 18

    Thanks. I read they were going to add them in R6/12/18, just assumed they still had to of played 4 games in the new position. All good.
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    filthridden
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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by filthridden on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:49 am

    @StormTrooper96 wrote:And stay tuned for dual position updates for several players this week, with Sam Burgess (FRF), Adam Blair (2RF), James Fisher-Harris (FRF), Trent Merrin (FRF), Hymel Hunt (WFB), Sia Soliola (FRF), Aidan Tolman (2RF), Nathan Ross (CTR), Asipele Fine (2RF), Brad Parker (CTR) and Bunty Afoa (FRF) among those set to become available in a second position in Fantasy. More updates will come after round 12.

    Really hoping for that JFH DPP then I can trade Lodge to Su'a without dropping down to 2x FRFs. (Arrow and Kikau).
    Also means I can upgrade Croker finally and not be relying on Maloney as my strongest half (though he filled that role admirably on the weekend!)
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    White Lightning

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by White Lightning on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:51 am

    Some quality posts from Cap'n Ranta this morning. Very informative & have helped me a lot.
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    Rippin and Tearin

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:57 am

    @White Lightning wrote:

    Why not both.
    Gos started, Su'a on bench but Su'a seems to have a much higher ceiling.Gos plays round 13.

    Sure, but if you had to chose one? I'll be upgrading and downgrading this week. So can only add the one.
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    wolfking
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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by wolfking on Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:02 am

    If Gossie keeps the starting spot and Sua stays on the bench, I might lean towards Gossie. Plays 13 too.
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    Cap'n Ranta

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Cap'n Ranta on Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:10 am

    @White Lightning wrote:Some quality posts from Cap'n Ranta this morning. Very informative & have helped me a lot.

    No worries. Glad I could help.

    Please just take anything I say with a grain of salt though. My team is 2378th overall and generally I tend to play more for H2H (once my overall hopes are in tatters).

      Current date/time is Wed Sep 26, 2018 9:48 pm