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    2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

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    Fortitude

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Fortitude on Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:19 am

    How many trades do you start with?
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    Liverpool_Bulldog

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog on Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:21 am

    @Milchcow wrote:

    If he is going to continue with a bench role, of course we can. He's not going to score 30 point tries every week. If you trade in any old guy with a negative BE you'll end up running put of trades and having a squad full of average Joes who managed one good score all season.


    Didnt he just get put through a hole? Wouldn't of thought 30 points.
    Was gonna go big again if not called back for a penalty

    But fair play, can only hope he starts
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    Brendos1er

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Brendos1er on Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:23 am

    There has been a lot of talk of trading out TPJ and Lodge this week and I'm a little concerned they are very reactionary. Last week's minutes seemed very strange and I don't think we can just assume that "worst case scenario" of it being that way going forward.

    For me at least, I think holding them for one more week is the way to go. Most trades I would do with them are sideways and I would prefer them to maybe lose 11k each and me be wrong then waste two trades only for them to go back to more sustainable minutes.

    I'll be moving Surgess and Gosi back into the 17 this week and banking the trades (FINALLY).

    Happy to be proven wrong though.

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Guest on Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:31 am

    Hoping Bird stays at 6 and Niko moves to bench with Thaiday, Sims and Ofa, leaving Su’a with a 70-80 min starting spot
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    wolfking

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by wolfking on Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:33 am

    @Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:

    Didnt he just get put through a hole? Wouldn't of thought 30 points.
    Was gonna go big again if not called back for a penalty

    But fair play, can only hope he starts

    It was like a 10m run, line break and broke 3 maybe 4 tackles.
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    Chucky

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Chucky on Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:34 am

    @Cap'n Ranta wrote:

    No worries. Glad I could help.

    Please just take anything I say with a grain of salt though. My team is 2378th overall and generally I tend to play more for H2H (once my overall hopes are in tatters).
    You do a good analysis and I find it helpful.
    I look at stats and try to make my decisions based on them, but I don’t go to the level that you do.
    Don’t be concerned with your rank, at this stage of the season 100 points can make a huge difference to that.
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    filthridden
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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by filthridden on Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:39 am

    Squad before trades:

    Smith
    Kikau, Arrow
    NBrown, Murray, RFM
    Maloney, JMK
    Kennar, Dugan
    Ponga, Tedesco, Dufty


    Cook, Lodge, Havili, JFH

    Croker, Inglis, Gosieski, CThompson

    Lodge, Croker and Inglis on the chopping block.
    Murray and NBrown out for the time being, still managed 800+ without them this round.

    Thinking Lodge ---> Su'a if he's named to start.

    How are people seeing Widdop and Brooks?
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    Chewie

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Chewie on Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:46 am

    @Brendos1er wrote:There has been a lot of talk of trading out TPJ and Lodge this week and I'm a little concerned they are very reactionary. Last week's minutes seemed very strange and I don't think we can just assume that "worst case scenario" of it being that way going forward.

    For me at least, I think holding them for one more week is the way to go. Most trades I would do with them are sideways and I would prefer them to maybe lose 11k each and me be wrong then waste two trades only for them to go back to more sustainable minutes.

    I'll be moving Surgess and Gosi back into the 17 this week and banking the trades (FINALLY).

    Happy to be proven wrong though.

    For me trading Lodge out fits into my strategy... 
    If I want to upgrade some of my cows to keepers I need the cash to fund these upgrades.

    Lodge to Gosie this week is a +230K ITB, and Manly is playing round 13.
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    Chewie

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Chewie on Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:57 am

    @filthridden wrote:Squad before trades:

    Smith
    Kikau, Arrow
    NBrown, Murray, RFM
    Maloney, JMK
    Kennar, Dugan
    Ponga, Tedesco, Dufty


    Cook, Lodge, Havili, JFH

    Croker, Inglis, Gosieski, CThompson

    Lodge, Croker and Inglis on the chopping block.
    Murray and NBrown out for the time being, still managed 800+ without them this round.

    Thinking Lodge ---> Su'a if he's named to start.

    How are people seeing Widdop and Brooks?

    Both Widdop and Brooks have been irratic fantasy scoring players in the past, but with their teams having a good start to the season they have had a more consistent output. 
    Whoever started with Brooks made a gutsy move that paid off. Benji seems to be the right partner for Brooks.

    They are both scoring at keeper level at the moment... and their current price reflects that. If they keep going like this, they can even make it to some peoples final 17
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    wolfking

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by wolfking on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:03 am

    I will have to choose to punt 2 of Griffin, Rochow, TPJ and Lodge this week.

    Secretly hoping Brown learns that Levi is shit and punts him to reserve grade again.
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    Mulvy
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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Mulvy on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:10 am

    @Cap'n Ranta wrote:

    60 minute games:

    30 tackles, 75m,

    80 minute games:

    40 tackles, 100m

    His tries have mostly been scooping up a deflected ball so no LB, no TBs. 8 points is nice but its hardly the big play you think it might be. Shows he backs up to support /  has good game sense (or is super lucky) but his more normal 1TB and 0.5 an offload would be what we expect based on average.

    Has averaged 1.5 MT a game and almost 0 penalties/errors.

    Take that in and you get a 37 point guy in 60 minutes or a 50 point guy in 80 mins. Obviously he has been great at finding the line so far (4 tries in 6 games) which has helped his average to be 55 points a game.

    Looking ahead if he averages 45 points which I think is fair you can expect him to peak at around 780k (+39k). Average of 52 gets him to 818k (+77k) so even in an optimistic scenario there is not enough cash to justify a trade so you'd really want him to be final 17 material.

    Personally I have him in a similar boat to Koroisau who is reliant on getting closer to 80 mins (for the tackle stats) they need to be considered a gun player in the HLF position. They both have DPP but their non HLF spot isn't exactly great. Both also "likely" play rd 13 (pending origin selections). Both also excel in more defensive game scripts due to their high workrate (Api makes more in the middle but misses a few more too). In an attacking game (i.e. rd 3 vs the knights Matterson got 43 in 80 mins) he doesn't get enough work and isn't so much of an attacking threat so if the roosters find some form he'll likely have some poorer scores than you'd like.

    Without being able to guarantee his minutes (lots of injuries for the chooks so far in game) he's a real risk buying at this point. Well done to those that got in previously but I can't see the upside for him to be a HLF or 2RF keeper. Scores should be fairly consistent if you'd just like a high floor (40+) HLF player.

    For those reasons I'm not considering trading him at this point but if I had him I'd be happy to hold till rd 13 at least to see what I have.

    My attitude is also helped by the fact that even if I'm wrong a 52 average hardly makes him unaffordable later. Just think there is more risk than upside bringing him in this week.

    Another great post. You are easily my new favourite poster!
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    Chewie

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Chewie on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:11 am

    @wolfking wrote:I will have to choose to punt 2 of Griffin, Rochow, TPJ and Lodge this week.

    Secretly hoping Brown learns that Levi is shit and punts him to reserve grade again.
    I'm keeping Griffin and Rochow for the time being, just because they play round 13 
    I don't have TPJ, but I would expect him to bounce back with a big score soon
    Lodge is on the outer for me...
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    Klemhammer

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Klemhammer on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:13 am

    Is still worth getting Maloney in with his be -6, or should I just go with jetski and sua
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    my tv broke

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by my tv broke on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:20 am

    @Klemhammer wrote:Is still worth getting Maloney in with his be -6, or should I just go with jetski and sua

    Depends if you need a half, but probably not imo. He still had -24 in negatives on the weekend. Expensive risk imo
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    wolfking

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by wolfking on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:25 am

    @Chewie wrote:
    I'm keeping Griffin and Rochow for the time being, just because they play round 13 
    I don't have TPJ, but I would expect him to bounce back with a big score soon
    Lodge is on the outer for me...

    Im thinking about trying to keep those two for round 13 too, but probably not really worth it.
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    Fortitude

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Fortitude on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:26 am

    Makes me feel sick watching Maloney scores and prices come in, and I own him. I was very doubtful.

    Think the only trade out for me this week is Doughie. Knock him down to Su'a. Despite wanting to rage trade cronk out, I don't wont to wipe my bank on SJ or Matterson, or want to be forced to play Maloney.

    Same goes for a desire to trade Isaako or Hiku out. They might not be pumping out significant scores on the reg, but they doing a job with out costing me to much. That and there isn't anyone scoring consistently enough to warrant rushing them into CTRs or WFB.

    If Surgess get the DPP I might look to bring in this week for Lodge, if not ill do it next week. TLT will be interesting to hopefully confirm a few changes. With Surgess back, might look to punt Nichols next week.

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    Rabbit
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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Rabbit on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:28 am

    @B/L wrote:You're an angry man Rabs. When are you being made mod ?

    The story of how rabs accidently first outed his real name on sportal back in the day is a classic.

    It was no accident. It was a letter to RLW. I told everyone I was sending it. I’ve never hidden my identity. I don’t need to. I also posted some boxing trophies with my name on them. Alf disappeared for a few years and the Bonzos turned to shit. Here’s the letter.

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    bluetige

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by bluetige on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:30 am

    @Klemhammer wrote:Is still worth getting Maloney in with his be -6, or should I just go with jetski and sua

    I would rather a Jetski then a sewer but a sewer is more important, I hope that helps
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    Chewie

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Chewie on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:31 am

    @wolfking wrote:

    Im thinking about trying to keep those two for round 13 too, but probably not really worth it.
    Yeah it's on a round by round basis... One of them will probably get an upgrade in the next few rounds
    My upgrade targets are Fifita, Surgess, and NBrown
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    surmo13

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by surmo13 on Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:33 am

    hmm, fisher-harris getting DPP means i can place him into my final plans instead of Taupau and save more money on my final team

      Current date/time is Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:17 am