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    2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

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    wolfking

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by wolfking on Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:43 pm

    @Chewie wrote:
    Yeah it's on a round by round basis... One of them will probably get an upgrade in the next few rounds
    My upgrade targets are Fifita, Surgess, and NBrown

    Not liking Tolo?
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    Chewie

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Chewie on Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:45 pm

    @wolfking wrote:

    Not liking Tolo?

    I'm trying to get numbers for round 13 as a first priority
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    Milchcow
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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Milchcow on Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:50 pm

    @Klemhammer wrote:Is still worth getting Maloney in with his be -6, or should I just go with jetski and sua

    Currently priced at a 34 average.

    $15,000 a point more than that that he averages between now and when Cleary comes back.
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    Mearcats

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Mearcats on Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:54 pm

    Mmmmm, nothing like waking up in the morning to the scent of a few fresh new posts from Cap'n! Bloke, you sir have already locked in my new poster award vote for the NRLFF end of year awards. The analysis is good, not getting being too biased towards either solely stats or solely gut feelings, informative and in depth. Stoked with your work.

    As for your rank, remember it's a long season. I am currently ranked inside the top 500 which I am chuffed with but it also seems a long way off. What gives me hope is that I'm only about 100 points off 50th. Now, no chance in hell I do that in one week but even if I can make up 10 points a week for 10 weeks that gets me up there!

    Keep up the good work bro!
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    Fortitude

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Fortitude on Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:55 pm

    @Chewie wrote:

    I'm trying to get numbers for round 13 as a first priority

    Is the goal for rd 13 to bring in as many guns as possible for that round, then max trade to have as many guns for rd 17? Im trying to work a way that my Rd 17 team is as close to my final 17 as possible. Im thinking this will mean at the expense of a gun rd 13 team. So try and play more cow type players in the lead up to the byes to have bulk cash to gun it from there?

    I mean ultimately we will just scramble and try plug holes like a bunch of beavers on ice. BUt in my head. I have a plan.
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    Mearcats

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Mearcats on Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:58 pm

    Now if only someone could decode that head Fort! Razz
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    pm888

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by pm888 on Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:01 pm

    @Milchcow wrote:

    Currently priced at a 34 average.

    $15,000 a point more than that that he averages between now and when Cleary comes back.
    reports are cleary is aiming for a rnd 10-11 return. so 4-5 weeks left. then you might have one more price rise next to maloneys name before it all turns to shit. 

    he will still make 100k if he avgs 40 for the next month. as a late adopter you would want 50's from him. i think its one week too late and staying away
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    danseels1985

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by danseels1985 on Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:01 pm

    Thinking Lodge to Gosiewski may be my only trade this week as I definitely need cash,could ditch TPJ or Rochow for Surgess if I wanted but maybe that's a bit hasty? Any thoughts on this would be great thanks guys

    Smith
    Fifita TPJ
    Arrow Kikau RFM
    Mbye DCE
    Mitchell Isaako
    Tedesco Ponga Thompson

    Cook
    JFH
    Rochow
    Lodge

    Murray
    Fine
    JMK
    Kennar
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    Mearcats

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Mearcats on Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:02 pm

    Ok, gonna have a look at a few players ahead of TLT. Add away to the list guys.

    Flavour of the week-

    1. Jaydn Su'a
    2. Surgess
    3. Lolo
    4.
    5.

    Smokies-

    1. Bird
    2. King Guth
    3.
    4.
    5.

    Trade Outs?-
    1. Kennar
    2. Doughy
    3. Lodge
    4.
    5.
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    Chewie

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Chewie on Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:05 pm

    @Fortitude wrote:

    Is the goal for rd 13 to bring in as many guns as possible for that round, then max trade to have as many guns for rd 17?  Im trying to work a way that my Rd 17 team is as close to my final 17 as possible. Im thinking this will mean at the expense of a gun rd 13 team. So try and play more cow type players in the lead up to the byes to have bulk cash to gun it from there?

    I mean ultimately we will just scramble and try plug holes like a bunch of beavers on ice. BUt in my head. I have a plan.
    My approach is something like... get solid number for round 13... and then work towards getting my best 17 asap 

    I'll probably get close to 17 for round 13, but probably only 11 or 12 for round 17
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    my tv broke

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by my tv broke on Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:06 pm

    If youre bringing in a keeper then it doesnt matter if they play rnd 13 or 17. Cashies for 13 is what you want so you can then turn them to a keeper after rnd 13 and before rnd 17.
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    StormTrooper96

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by StormTrooper96 on Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:09 pm

    @Mearcats wrote:Ok, gonna have a look at a few players ahead of TLT. Add away to the list guys.

    Flavour of the week-

    1. Jaydn Su'a
    2. Surgess
    3. Lolo
    4.
    5.

    Smokies-

    1. Bird
    2. King Guth
    3. Brooks
    4. CHN
    5.

    Trade Outs?-
    1. Kennar
    2. Doughy
    3. Lodge
    4. Croker
    5.

    Cows -
    1. Katoa
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    Fortitude

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Fortitude on Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:10 pm

    @Mearcats wrote:Now if only someone could decode that head Fort! Razz

    Any success from this point will be attributed to Ass, not Class. Every trade has been on a gut feel this yr. Haven't paid too close attention to byes this year.

    Generally, my thoughts were to break my season down like this.

    Rd1-10

    Get my team in a good position with out burning trades. Try be in top 1000 with over half a dozen trades up my sleeve. The point here was I didn't want to be heading into byes looking to make up ground, more just maintain position.

    Rd 10-18.

    This will be were most of my trades will be used, starting to get SOO players out, and Guns who will be playing and ending in my final 17 in. Obviously ill have some guns sit on the pine through out. If I have enough trades I might drop some out then bring them straight back in. I think its still much to early to worry about these trades now.

    Rd 18-End of season.
    Hopefully come out of Byes with a team pretty close to my Final 17. With trades up my sleeve, ill look to come home with a wet sail.
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    Rippin and Tearin

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:11 pm

    @Chewie wrote:
    I'm keeping Griffin and Rochow for the time being, just because they play round 13 
    I don't have TPJ, but I would expect him to bounce back with a big score soon
    Lodge is on the outer for me...

    I had the same plan originally, and I think Rochow could still warrant a place until 13, but the original plan was based on Griffin playing 80 and averaging about 45. Trends point to him being more of a 60 min guy now and a sub 40 player. IMO that doesn't warrant holding him till 13. Sure you might get 40 points more that week, but if you can use his cash to upgrade to someone scoring 50 points per week (or even more) you'd be far better off! And of course you could always upgrade to a round 13 guy too.

    This is coming from the guy who ditched RFM last week though Smile

    As another disclaimer, my stance is that bye planning this year is over-rated. Timing a few trades here and there, perhaps one or two trades dedicated solely to adding to by earned numbers, and attempting to cash out to bye round playing nuffies is what I'll be doing this year. Anything more an I think it'l be detrimental to your long game. I.e. holding a guy beyond his used by date just cause he plays 13 Wink
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    Fortitude

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Fortitude on Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:14 pm

    @Rippin and Tearin wrote:

    I had the same plan originally, and I think Rochow could still warrant a place until 13, but the original plan was based on Griffin playing 80 and averaging about 45. Trends point to him being more of a 60 min guy now and a sub 40 player. IMO that doesn't warrant holding him till 13. Sure you might get 40 points more that week, but if you can use his cash to upgrade to someone scoring 50 points per week (or even more) you'd be far better off! And of course you could always upgrade to a round 13 guy too.

    This is coming from the guy who ditched RFM last week though Smile

    As another disclaimer, my stance is that bye planning this year is over-rated. Timing a few trades here and there, perhaps one or two trades dedicated solely to adding to by earned numbers, and attempting to cash out to bye round playing nuffies is what I'll be doing this year. Anything more an I think it'l be detrimental to your long game. I.e. holding a guy beyond his used by date just cause he plays 13 Wink

    Couldn't agree more with your final para.

    The same can be said for avoiding cows because they might not play rd 13. I'm only really looking 2-3 weeks ahead.
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    Mighty Fishes
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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Mighty Fishes on Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:17 pm

    SST will miss this week and possibly next week
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    my tv broke

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by my tv broke on Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:18 pm

    If Griffin was still a 60+ minute player then a hold might be OK but he only played 48 minutes on the weekend. Maybe its a once off, but that's a huge worry, and he probably has to go. If those minutes continue he doesn't look likely to go over 30 very often.
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    Liverpool_Bulldog

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog on Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:21 pm

    @my tv broke wrote:If youre bringing in a keeper then it doesnt matter if they play rnd 13 or 17. Cashies for 13 is what you want so you can then turn them to a keeper after rnd 13 and before rnd 17.

    I like this strategy. Gossie looks like he will be making an appearance
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    Cap'n Ranta

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Cap'n Ranta on Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:21 pm

    @Mearcats wrote:Ok, gonna have a look at a few players ahead of TLT. Add away to the list guys.

    Flavour of the week-

    1. Jaydn Su'a
    2. Surgess
    3. Lolo
    4.
    5.

    Smokies-

    1. Bird
    2. King Guth
    3. Jacks
    4. Curtis Scott
    5. Mannering

    Trade Outs?-
    1. Kennar
    2. Doughy
    3. Lodge
    4. Griffin / Rochow
    5. Hiku
    6. Murray

    I'll leave the Sharks mess alone for now as TLT is definitely needed for that.

    Edit: Forgot Murray using a heap of cap with no real news.


    Last edited by Cap'n Ranta on Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:25 pm; edited 1 time in total
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    Mearcats

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    Re: 2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 30

    Post by Mearcats on Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:21 pm

    Su'a looks to me like he could be a good option, especially if he gets a starting role. This is by no means a definite and a s bench player you'd want him to be getting about 40 odd minutes to really handy.

    Current BE of -8 definitely swings things in his favor. Sitting on an average of 29.3 (obvs inflated by last weeks 60). Averaging 41mins over 4 rounds so far (49 in the last game) so I don't think thats an unreasonable expectation. Looks like he'll avg 75-100mts a game (7.5-10pts) and around 20-25 tackles (20-25pts). That would give him between 28-35 in base points per week. He does have a missed tackle and a error in him but not much to speak of so we'll call it 25-33.

    At 25 points he should make 79k in three weeks. At 33 points he'll make 123k. With Gillett being out for 10ish weeks I see no reason for him not to be around long enough to make that 150k that we base as a value for a trade. He likes to break a few tackles meaning that if he's kept quite he'll be on the lower end of his floor and ceiling ratio and he doesn't play 13. Ideally you'd want him to peak around rd12 ready to cash in. By then he should be close to 525k (in theory). Could be a good cash out option for Lodge, especially for those who have Kikau/Arrow/JFH and other DPP players with plenty of depth in the FRF.

      Current date/time is Thu Jul 19, 2018 5:58 pm