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    2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 7

    Joey Superior
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    Post by Joey Superior Thu Mar 01, 2018 9:59 am

    Dropping Smith allows me to pick up Lichaa and Whitehead, surely those 2 will have a higher combined points per week than Smith and having to play Kennar (if named)?

    Question is, those that don't start with Smith, how are you planning to bring him in? Regardless of the mid rangers that has increased in value it will still require 2 trades to bring someone like Smith in? Unless you leave couple 100k's in the bank?
    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:00 am

    Most Super Rugby teams in NZ, or the ones I know about at least, have 1 sports analyst on their pay roll and therefore they do it all themselves. For the world leader in Rugby, I was shocked at how little resources get put into this side of the game, and that literally these guys are running a few metrics typically on excel spreadsheets. It really is quite amateurish stuff. Big niche out there for anyone that wanted to target that NZ market I reckon!!
    GreenMachine
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    Post by GreenMachine Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:01 am

    I should have noted that having watched the rugby league data through its numerous sources over the years playing this, it just isn’t the same class as Football, Tennis, Basketball - which are the betting “big-3”. And above comment is right. QA/Supervision IS just doing the same job on delay. It’s checking the accuracy of previous persons work but importantly is done by someone with a lot of experience. To be a supervisor or QA specialist of the 100 dollar scouts you have been a proven high quality experienced scout yourself and they are on full time wages, proper job.

    Also every scout has a quality score and supervisor strict goals. If you have a low quality score you don’t get more work. Pretty ruthless
    GreenMachine
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    Post by GreenMachine Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:09 am

    By the way if anyone is ever interested in this space as a side earn and would like to be paid to go watch sports there’s always demand. Might be some A-league or especially cricket if anyone here that way inclined. Cricket is ball by ball and hugely growing in play sport in Asia.

    https://www.sportsdata.ag/application/data-journalist/

    Sign up your interest there. Fantastic company Sportradar and not a bad foot in the door either, as they have a Sydney office

    When I was there we signed a 7year 30 million a year NBA deal as data rights holder. Serious business!


    Last edited by GreenMachine on Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:12 am; edited 1 time in total
    Finch
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    Post by Finch Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:11 am

    FWIW:

    https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-premiership/jason-taylor-and-andrew-johns-hand-cooper-cronk-his-tricolour-version-of-cam-smith/news-story/ad1e10d2746f63a0dd41584aef2a7e1d

    Friend saying he is looking to be more running more this year


    I'm interested.


    I hope Farah is in the 17 otherwise it's going to be tough picking Cook/Friend/Smith...
    Speedball Deluxe
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    Post by Speedball Deluxe Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:11 am

    Thickshake wrote:Taking a break from my lurking to chime in on the scoring chat. When I was at uni in Canberra (~10 years ago), I did live stats recording for the raiders under-20s games for a season. It entailed going to the ground, I got a media pass to get in, and then I'd just call the stats company and dictate the stats to them as they happened. A couple of times my phone went flat with 10-20 minutes to go and whatever live stats they were providing would have just crashed. After the game I had to go to a van and get a copy of the recording to send through to the company for the stats review. Got $100 a game I think, plus got to stick around for the main game.

    Obviously for the NRL all games are televised so the over-the-phone thing doesn't happen, but it's not hard to see how the live stats can be quite wrong when trying to dictate every tackle, missed tackle, hit up, kick metre, error, penalty, tackle break etc. in a continuous stream of numbers and gibberish.

    Surely they get it fairly right when they have a chance to review the game with pause, half speed or whatever they do. Not that I've checked. Looking forward tot he season anyway!

    Entertaining story man, thanks for posting! Smile
    wolfking
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    Post by wolfking Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:27 am

    Joey Superior wrote:Dropping Smith allows me to pick up Lichaa and Whitehead, surely those 2 will have a higher combined points per week than Smith and having to play Kennar (if named)?

    Question is, those that don't start with Smith, how are you planning to bring him in? Regardless of the mid rangers that has increased in value it will still require 2 trades to bring someone like Smith in? Unless you leave couple 100k's in the bank?

    I think if you don't start with Smith, it will probably be near impossible getting him in without major surgery and consequences.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:43 am

    Rippin and Tearin wrote:Most Super Rugby teams in NZ, or the ones I know about at least, have 1 sports analyst on their pay roll and therefore they do it all themselves. For the world leader in Rugby, I was shocked at how little resources get put into this side of the game, and that literally these guys are running a few metrics typically on excel spreadsheets. It really is quite amateurish stuff. Big niche out there for anyone that wanted to target that NZ market I reckon!!

    When NRL went from NRLStats to Prozone/Champion, they forced the clubs to use that feed as well.

    At the time a few clubs were unhappy because they liked what they had and didn't want the change.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:46 am


    Stats companies ask for applicants every year to do data recording

    But its is generally low pay and bad work hours to be a data monkey, so you'd have to love the job.
    TheWeapon
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    Post by TheWeapon Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:47 am

    Finch wrote:FWIW:

    https://www.foxsports.com.au/nrl/nrl-premiership/jason-taylor-and-andrew-johns-hand-cooper-cronk-his-tricolour-version-of-cam-smith/news-story/ad1e10d2746f63a0dd41584aef2a7e1d

    Friend saying he is looking to be more running more this year


    I'm interested.


    I hope Farah is in the 17 otherwise it's going to be tough picking Cook/Friend/Smith...

    Interesting. And also kicking more. Who played in the halves for the chooks rd 12/13 last year (I can't recall if origin players missed r12....I think it was 13...)? Interestingly he had 200+ kick meters in those games....and scored 82 and 70. In all but one other game, it looks like he put only one kick in, at most two....
    Joey Superior
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    Post by Joey Superior Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:50 am

    TheWeapon wrote:

    Interesting. And also kicking more. Who played in the halves for the chooks rd 12/13 last year (I can't recall if origin players missed r12....I think it was 13...)? Interestingly he had 200+ kick meters in those games....and scored 82 and 70. In all but one other game, it looks like he put only one kick in, at most two....

    Sounds juicy, very tempting
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:55 am

    wolfking wrote:

    I think if you don't start with Smith,  it will probably be near impossible getting him in without major surgery and consequences.

    If you start him though are you keeping him during origin? I think he will miss 13, 17 and be rested for one more in there somewhere. So you either have to carry him for three or more games, or use two trades to trade him out and in again. So it's not all plain sailing starting with Smith it has it's downsides too. It also means less money being spent on the rest of your squad, and presumably no value ie he will score what he's priced at. Obviously it has it's advantages too. There are pro's and cons with both options and one isn't necessarily better than the other. Also there is always the possibility that Smith gets an early shower in a couple of games during the origin (gives Smith jnr a chance to develop also) period and I can pick him up cheaper. Probably won't happen but could be a master stroke.
    TheWeapon
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    Post by TheWeapon Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:01 am

    mulvy wrote:

    If you start him though are you keeping him during origin? I think he will miss 13, 17 and be rested for one more in there somewhere. So you either have to carry him for three or more games, or use two trades to trade him out and in again. So it's not all plain sailing starting with Smith it has it's downsides too. It also means less money being spent on the rest of your squad, and presumably no value ie he will score what he's priced at. Obviously it has it's advantages too. There are pro's and cons with both options and one isn't necessarily better than the other. Also there is always the possibility that Smith gets an early shower in a couple of games during the origin (gives Smith jnr a chance to develop also) period and I can pick him up cheaper. Probably won't happen but could be a master stroke.

    I'll be looking at selling him around the origin period, possibly for Surgess. My current team has Cook / Friend / Taupau in addition to Smith....so in theory I'll have plenty of good captain options for Rd 13. In reality, I'll crumble and rage trade like a madman in weeks 1-3 and destroy my team anyway
    wolfking
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    Post by wolfking Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:05 am

    mulvy wrote:

    If you start him though are you keeping him during origin? I think he will miss 13, 17 and be rested for one more in there somewhere. So you either have to carry him for three or more games, or use two trades to trade him out and in again. So it's not all plain sailing starting with Smith it has it's downsides too. It also means less money being spent on the rest of your squad, and presumably no value ie he will score what he's priced at. Obviously it has it's advantages too. There are pro's and cons with both options and one isn't necessarily better than the other. Also there is always the possibility that Smith gets an early shower in a couple of games during the origin (gives Smith jnr a chance to develop also) period and I can pick him up cheaper. Probably won't happen but could be a master stroke.

    I dropped him before origin and then picked him back up last year, but with the game now, that's going to be a lot harder I feel. I guess whether you drop him before origin or carry him all depends on how you are travelling and how the rest of your squad is performing.

    There's also the option of running Smith until origin and then drop him and see if you even need to get him back. That could be another option, start with him for the first half of the season then come origin you can evaluate the hooker situation and you might not need him post origin.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:06 am


    I'm planning on keeping Smith. he only misses 1 extra game compared to non-origin players.

    If it looks like he'll get more rests than just the byes, then i'll reevaluate and might trade him out.
    wolfking
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    Post by wolfking Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:09 am

    Milchcow wrote:
    I'm planning on keeping Smith. he only misses 1 extra game compared to non-origin players.

    If it looks like he'll get more rests than just the byes, then i'll reevaluate and might trade him out.

    That's a good point. With the origin schedule this year there won't be as much need for him to be rested mid season.
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:17 am

    I'm planning to jump on the Lui bandwagon if he gets named at lock. I currently have Alvaro as my Lodge partner, but Lui's DPP, cheaper price tag and similar predicted score (45-ish) sounds like a better deal.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:18 am


    Given nobody really looks in the nearlysport thread I'll post here for visibility.

    If anyone wants to play in a nearlysport comp this year we have a space in my private comp. Draft is 2pm this Sunday (Sydney time) which you'd need to be online for.

    PM me if interested.

    More fun than fantasy/supercoach etc IMO

    wolfking
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    Post by wolfking Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:24 am

    Chewie wrote:I'm planning to jump on the Lui bandwagon if he gets named at lock. I currently have Alvaro as my Lodge partner, but Lui's DPP, cheaper price tag and similar predicted score (45-ish) sounds like a better deal.

    I think I'm keen on him too. Could be one of those players to have a Vaughn like year. Taking a punt on him over Fifita in my front row helps a lot in other areas. Means I can add a Whitehead and get a more secured 17th man like Lichaa or back to Murray if he still starts.
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:38 am

    Milchcow wrote:
    I'm planning on keeping Smith. he only misses 1 extra game compared to non-origin players.

    If it looks like he'll get more rests than just the byes, then i'll reevaluate and might trade him out.

    But that's impossible to predict. If your criteria for trading him out is if he misses three games, you won't know about it until after he has already missed the first one. And once he has missed the first one you missed the trade out boat because he then only misses two more, which by your criteria warrants holding him. It doesn't work.

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