NRL Fantasy 2019 thread part 8

SI wrote:

This deserves a paddlin'!

Fixed.

King Assassin wrote:

so guys like Murray, Kikau, Offa(personal favourite)

Yeah lots of guys in the 500-700k range ready to make the leap.

Bethany_B wrote:


- I know Macca is probably better value for money but I think McInnes will score better than he will. McInnes has a better running game, is just as good defensively, and will almost certainly not play Origin. Also, the Dragons have a pretty tough draw in the first 4-5 weeks, and that usually means McInnes scores better. I don't mind Macca as a pick but I've got a gut feeling that McInnes will be better.

- As for Ofa, I see quite a lot of upside in him. He's pretty talented, has a huge motor, and is pretty much the leader of these young middle forwards. With TPJ out, I think he's a must-have and even with TPJ in, the Broncos don't have that many experienced middle forwards and I reckon the bench middles would be taking more minutes off Lodge and TPJ than they will with Ofa. That being said, if I need to free up cash before round 1, I might drop Ofa down to Junior Paulo (or alternately Alex Twal if he starts).

I agree McInnes will score better no doubt. The only reason I suggested FAC was to do with money. Good point he won't play origin though. No doubt Ofa is talented but even with TPJ out (btw he won't be out long), he seems unlikely to start at lock which is where I think he needs to be to get minutes.

King Assassin wrote:

Offa had a few games starting when mcguire and a couple others were out where he played 70 minutes at lock. not sure how he scored in those game but if he can get similar minutes consistently this season he has amazing upside

I was all over Ofa for a long time but it isn't looking like he will start at lock, can't see him getting 50-55 as you say and playing in excess of 60 minutes at prop

Bethany_B wrote:

That's my general approach to midrangers, with the exception of Stimson. As for your mystery POD, he wouldn't happen to be an edge forward who plays for the Tigers, right?

I thought about getting Chris Lawrence in too

Alfie wrote:

I agree McInnes will score better no doubt. The only reason I suggested FAC was to do with money. Good point he won't play origin though. No doubt Ofa is talented but even with TPJ out (btw he won't be out long), he seems unlikely to start at lock which is where I think he needs to be to get minutes.



I was all over Ofa for a long time but it isn't looking like he will start at lock, can't see him getting 50-55 as you say and playing in excess of 60 minutes at prop

So your thinking TPJ starts lock?

mattnz wrote:

Not stimson, have Mahoney. Avoiding mid rangers generally now, instead getting those in the range of sub-gun ready to make the leap to gun scores this season.

Means I am going for the guys currently getting mid 40s, that I think can hit mid 50s this year, instead of a guy like Stimson who is priced at 28 and may hit 40s. He becomes the kind of guy that you need to trade out before he peaks, as you need his spot in your team for a guy hitting gun scores, and he is too expensive by then to be running as an NPR. In a few rounds I see him as the kind of guy that you regret having in your team.

I am also deliberately going for guys that I see having a high ceiling, ones that have managed to hit 70s when getting good minutes but are priced in the 40s. They have huge upside potential. Have a massive POD that I recently added to my team, who is priced mid 40s, when he plays 80 minutes as expected, he never gets less than 40, and has hit 70s more than once.

I see Mahoney as having the potential to be a heavily discounted gun scorer.

Dude they are the same thing. We are all trying to do the same. It's just balance and confidence level you put on everyone.

King Assassin wrote:


So your thinking TPJ starts lock?

When he returns from injury yes, Gillett is also apparently a chance

Players that I have locked in for R1 are - Fifita, Murray, Arrow and Matterson.

Mulvy wrote:

I won't be saying that, because horrocious isn't a word. I mean seriously, that's just rambuctious!

I wonder if SI intentionally made this a portmanteau of 'horrendous' and 'attrocious'? Probably just a few beers down I assume

Mulvy wrote:

What happened to sub-gun POD's?. Also, cows and guns is a solid strategy, in fact the more common strategy. Having some dollars left over makes sense for this. The right mix of cows and guns vs midrange value is the most interesting thing about the new 21 man/open bench format. But really, is probably just a year to year consideration.

Much of my team is sub-gun PODs, but have been adding a few genuine guns recently that should be undervalued to start the season, like Taupau, Arrow.

WT2K wrote:Players that I have locked in for R1 are - Fifita, Murray, Arrow and Matterson.

You have guys locked in? Actually that's a decent shout. Matterson, convince me on him?

Alfie wrote:

I wonder if SI intentionally made this a portmanteau of 'horrendous' and 'attrocious'? Probably just a few beers down I assume

It should be a word. Ill defitely be talking to Oxford bout this

Mulvy wrote:

Dude they are the same thing. We are all trying to do the same. It's just balance and confidence level you put on everyone.

Have been dropping guys like Stimson, Paulo, Capewell etc that are lower mids, likely with value, replacing them with sub-gun level, also with value, and getting lots of cows to make the numbers work.

Alfie wrote:

I wonder if SI intentionally made this a portmanteau of 'horrendous' and 'attrocious'? Probably just a few beers down I assume

You are correct, it's a man who likes port. and yes they've discussed it before, and I've never liked it.

Bethany_B wrote:

That's my general approach to midrangers, with the exception of Stimson. As for your mystery POD, he wouldn't happen to be an edge forward who plays for the Tigers, right?

Matterson is in my team, locked in. Have another that I see as a similar pick that also fits that profile.

mattnz wrote:

SI wrote:

The last 3 seasons it's been my strategy-I've had between 400k and 500k in the kitty come Round 1 all those years.  Final ranks were 900, 360, 394.  Personally I'm more than happy with that, consistency wise.  

Last year I made a couple of horrocious rookie errors that cost me a Top 100 finish (I get we can all say that).  I was going to avoid the strategy this year, but with he mid range value again have currently got a team I am kind of happy with, and 400k in the bank.  So pretty sure I'll do it again.

How do you typically use the $400k?

Typically I use that 400k very poorly mate

It is there in reserve to both upgrade the couple of players we all get wrong, and to also snap up the couple of surprise packets none of us saw coming.

Alfie wrote:

I agree McInnes will score better no doubt. The only reason I suggested FAC was to do with money. Good point he won't play origin though. No doubt Ofa is talented but even with TPJ out (btw he won't be out long), he seems unlikely to start at lock which is where I think he needs to be to get minutes.



I was all over Ofa for a long time but it isn't looking like he will start at lock, can't see him getting 50-55 as you say and playing in excess of 60 minutes at prop

If not him then who gets all the minutes? There's 240 minutes to go around (3 middle forward spots) among 5 players, since Seibold has said he wants 2 bench middles.

Let's say the two bench middles get 30 minutes each, which is pretty optimistic for them and makes guys like Flegler and Carrigan worth running if they get the bench spots, that leaves 180 minutes between the three starters, Ofa, Lodge and TPJ (or whoever fills in for him). Lodge only played 60 minutes once in 2018, and usually got around 50 mins. For argument's sake, let's say Lodge gets 55 minutes a game, leaving us 125 minutes between Ofa and TPJ.

In the 3 games TPJ played at lock (rounds 8-10 last year), he played 49, 60 and 59 minutes, while at prop he played 4 games and never got over 50 mins. Either way, he has a recurring hammy problem and I doubt he'll get more than 50-55 mins at lock. That leaves 70 mins for Ofa.
Either way, I doubt that both bench middles will get 30 minutes each, more likely to get 20-25 each, or one of them getting 20 and the other getting 30, meaning even more potential minutes for Ofa.


TLDR: McGuire's minutes will likely go to Ofa since he's got a better motor and is less injury prone. If not, the bench middles become good cash cows.

mattnz wrote:

Matterson is in my team, locked in. Have another that I see as a similar pick that also fits that profile.

Would I be incorrect in saying shaun lane is in you team based on the way he finished last season?

King Assassin wrote:

Would I be incorrect in saying shaun lane is in you team based on the way he finished last season?

you wouldn't be incorrect

Bethany_B wrote:

If not him then who gets all the minutes? There's 240 minutes to go around (3 middle forward spots) among 5 players, since Seibold has said he wants 2 bench middles.

Let's say the two bench middles get 30 minutes each, which is pretty optimistic for them and makes guys like Flegler and Carrigan worth running if they get the bench spots, that leaves 180 minutes between the three starters, Ofa, Lodge and TPJ (or whoever fills in for him). Lodge only played 60 minutes once in 2018, and usually got around 50 mins. For argument's sake, let's say Lodge gets 55 minutes a game, leaving us 125 minutes between Ofa and TPJ.

In the 3 games TPJ played at lock (rounds 8-10 last year), he played 49, 60 and 59 minutes, while at prop he played 4 games and never got over 50 mins. Either way, he has a recurring hammy problem and I doubt he'll get more than 50-55 mins at lock. That leaves 70 mins for Ofa.
Either way, I doubt that both bench middles will get 30 minutes each, more likely to get 20-25 each, or one of them getting 20 and the other getting 30, meaning even more potential minutes for Ofa.


TLDR: McGuire's minutes will likely go to Ofa since he's got a better motor and is less injury prone. If not, the bench middles become good cash cows.

Love the breakdown but once TPJ comes back, either Fifita or Glenn will go to the bench and play in the middle. Gillett will eventually play 80 if not straight away as will Glenn and quite possibly Fifita if he gets the nod over Glenn and starts strongly