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    NRL Fantasy 2024 Part 2 - We've all been waiting for Weekes

    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Mon Jan 29, 2024 11:17 pm

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:I think the link between captaincy and minutes is tenuous at best

    Here are 2023 club captains

    Club Captain(s)
    Brisbane Broncos Adam Reynolds
    Canberra Raiders Jarrod Croker
    Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs Reed Mahoney and Matt Burton
    Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks Wade Graham and Dale Finucane
    Dolphins Jesse Bromwich
    Gold Coast Titans Tino Fa'asuamaleaui
    Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles Daly Cherry-Evans
    Melbourne Storm Christian Welch
    Newcastle Knights Kalyn Ponga and Jayden Brailey
    North Queensland Cowboys Chad Townsend and Jason Taumalolo
    Parramatta Eels Clinton Gutherson and Junior Paulo
    Penrith Panthers Isaah Yeo and Nathan Cleary
    South Sydney Rabbitohs Cameron Murray
    St. George Illawarra Dragons Ben Hunt
    Sydney Roosters James Tedesco
    New Zealand Warriors Tohu Harris
    Wests Tigers Api Koroisau

    Did any of the forwards see increased minutes?

    Harris did, was one of the reasons I was hot on him at the start of last season, when named captain. Before getting injured, was playing 80 almost every week.

    Yeo similar.
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Mon Jan 29, 2024 11:19 pm

    mattnz wrote:

    His issue was his foot, then went out of favour, was forced to play MID, with Preston the bolter last season coming through, but has said he wants to play EDG.

    If he starts EDG, would be foolish not to start with him. With Bird wanting to play CTR, and that EDG being weak otherwise last season, you would expect he should have the front running as the most experienced guy and a better player in that position than any of the other Dragons (certainly pre-injury at least).

    In 70+ minutes at EDG he averages 50, priced at $426k.

    There are so bloody many edges. But his DPP is a bonus. Hope he goes better than the last Dragons DPP starting edge.
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Tue Jan 30, 2024 12:31 am

    I didn’t realise I thought it was starting next Monday but it started tonight I can watch it back on 10 play I’ll be watching Australian Survivor Titans v Rebels for sure should be bloody good!
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Tue Jan 30, 2024 12:33 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:

    It's co-captain though, isn't it? As in the other captain is a half (Dearden) who they know will be on for 80. Same as Lolo and Chad last year. Doubt it'll make the slightest difference either way.

    Captaincy is hugely overrated in pretty much all sports except cricket anyway. They're just there to talk to the ref and front up to the media, really. It's not like they're calling the plays, and team leaders/motivators (eg Munster, Jurbo) are free to lead by voice or example whether they have the armband or not.
    I still think Cotter will avg 60mins the first half of the season anyway.
    Bethany_B
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    Post by Bethany_B Tue Jan 30, 2024 1:19 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:

    There are so bloody many edges. But his DPP is a bonus. Hope he goes better than the last Dragons DPP starting edge.

    Main downside is that he'll be on the left side outside Flanagan, instead of the right side outside Hunt.

    That said, if he's starting edge and playing 80, he's probably still worth it but not the slam dunk he otherwise would be.
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Tue Jan 30, 2024 5:43 am

    mattnz wrote:

    Harris did, was one of the reasons I was hot on him at the start of last season, when named captain. Before getting injured, was playing 80 almost every week.

    Yeo similar.

    Tohu 2022 - Take out the game he came back from injury off the bench he averaged 71 minutes. 2023 averaged 68 minutes. I traded him in twice last year on the back of 80 minute performances that stopped

    Yeo 2022 - Averaged 75 minutes. 2023 averaged 77 minutes

    Looking at some of the other forwards on the list

    Junior Paulo - Went from 47 to 54 which is a decent jump
    Cameron Murray - Went from 65 to 67
    Tino - Went from 59 to 61
    Bromwich - No point comparing his Storm data to his Dolphins data (although minutes decreased)
    Wade Graham - Minutes dropped from 51 to 45
    Dale Finucane - 46 up to 49

    Aside from Junior Paulo it made almost no difference for any of them
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Tue Jan 30, 2024 6:30 am

    mattnz wrote:
    Holy Moly wrote:Taumololo axed as captain. Could fire him up?

    https://www.news.com.au/sport/nrl/cowboys-weapon-jason-taumalolo-axed-after-clubs-2023-season-flop/news-story/fa00babf0fd2f5e9152b3bcab7adc368

    Hope it's legit news.

    I don't see that as a positive for his minutes. Being named as captain for a forward is often a good sign for increased minutes.

    Since being made co-captain 3 years ago, Taumalolo's minutes have dropped every year.

    I don't think that trend will reverse now that he's not captain, as his reduced minutes were more a sign of his age than the captaincy
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Tue Jan 30, 2024 6:31 am

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    Tohu 2022 - Take out the game he came back from injury off the bench he averaged 71 minutes. 2023 averaged 68 minutes. I traded him in twice last year on the back of 80 minute performances that stopped

    Yeo 2022 - Averaged 75 minutes. 2023 averaged 77 minutes

    Looking at some of the other forwards on the list

    Junior Paulo - Went from 47 to 54 which is a decent jump
    Cameron Murray - Went from 65 to 67
    Tino - Went from 59 to 61
    Bromwich - No point comparing his Storm data to his Dolphins data (although minutes decreased)
    Wade Graham - Minutes dropped from 51 to 45
    Dale Finucane - 46 up to 49

    Aside from Junior Paulo it made almost no difference for any of them

    Tohu was getting 80 minutes, then had problems with both knees, that affected him the rest of the season. Its not just 1 game coming back from injury.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Tue Jan 30, 2024 6:37 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:

    Captaincy is hugely overrated in pretty much all sports except cricket anyway. They're just there to talk to the ref

    Fun fact, in soccer they don't even really get to do that. There is nothing in the laws that gives the captain any power or privilege in talking to the ref that every other player doesn't have. The ref will generally talk to them out of convention, but technically the armband does nothing.

    In Rugby League the captain has explicit permission to talk to the ref about decisions during stoppages in play.
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Tue Jan 30, 2024 7:12 am

    I am finding that my team drafts are getting more and more heavy on MIDs.

    Its the one position that should start out really strong to begin the season, so it is difficult to pass them up. They can make a really good core of scoring to build the team around, and there is lots of potential value in the position.

    I currently have 7 MIDs including 3 guns (not including Curran).
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Tue Jan 30, 2024 7:22 am

    Kris has been denied to have the All Stars game count to his suspension he will be back round 2.
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Tue Jan 30, 2024 7:24 am

    Rabbits21 wrote:Kris has been denied to have the All Stars game count to his suspension he will be back round 2.

    Probably means there will be a round 1 trap in the Raiders back line.
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Tue Jan 30, 2024 8:01 am

    Rabbits21 wrote:Kris has been denied to have the All Stars game count to his suspension he will be back round 2.

    How come it counts for Wighton? Typical bunny stitch-up
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Tue Jan 30, 2024 9:02 am

    Rabbits21 wrote:Kris has been denied to have the All Stars game count to his suspension he will be back round 2.

    NRL didn’t mention the denial of All Stars in latest article although saying he returns in R2. Given Kris has letter of support to say he’d be selected for All Stars I can’t see why they’d deny the exemption

    Edit: Confirmed by Canberra Times exemption was unsuccessful


    Last edited by Camo123 on Wed Jan 31, 2024 4:13 am; edited 1 time in total
    easytiger
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    Post by easytiger Tue Jan 30, 2024 9:08 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:

    How come it counts for Wighton? Typical bunny stitch-up

    Jared Waerea-Hargreaves has also had his application denied, meaning he will miss the Las Vegas game (and probably won't help shed light on Lenui v May roles).

    In a surprising co-incidence; it means JWH should bring up his 300th NRL match in the Friday night R3 blockbuster vs the Rabbitohs...
    easytiger
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    Post by easytiger Tue Jan 30, 2024 9:33 am

    Mulvy wrote:I wonder if we should be concerned about the departure of Matt Moylan from the Sharks, affecting Hynes scoring. Is Trindall the likely replacement? Hynes and Trindall played the last six games together last year which gives a bit to go on. KMs would be the main concern.

    Earlier in the year Hynes was kicking 440 KMs per game, compared with 295KMs in the last six games when he was along side Trindall (a decrease of 145kms). In those last six games, Trindall averaged 233KMs compared to Moylan who averaged 74KMs (an increase of 159kms).

    If these numbers ring true, Trindall at five-eighth could be the direct cause of about a five point decrease in scoring for Hynes. I can't quite remember, but Hynes might have been carrying a strain of some sort, so this may all be over blown.

    But, that's just KMs. Would he affect playmaking more or less than Moylan? It might not affect Hynes that much, but it's a risk, and when you pay for the most expensive player in fantasy, you expect top of the range scores. I also don't expect Trindall to take the goal kicking away from Hynes, but if I remember correctly, Hynes had a pretty unhappy stretch for a while there with the boot, so it's always a risk as well.

    I was tempted to run with both Cleary and Hynes, but it's a lot of cap, and with the above possible risks, thinking I'll just run Cleary.

    I'm not sure Hynes lost the goal-kicking to Trindall - Hynes had a quad injury towards the end of the regular season which explains why he didn't goal kick (also missed R26 as a result) and that issue may have been in the mix with the reduction in general field kicking towards the end of the season.

    Nevertheless, I think you'd expect Trindall should average more KM than Moylan, but I suspect the loss of KM is probably only going to be a few fantasy points.
    It could be offset by Hynes running more which is where he can be pretty good at grabbing TBs & OLs

    It feels like he has a bit more questions over him than Cleary, but I suspect he ends up being there or there-abouts with what we've come to expect the last couple of years.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Tue Jan 30, 2024 10:06 am

    Camo123 wrote:

    NRL didn’t mention the denial of All Stars in latest article although saying he returns in R2. Given Kris has letter of support to say he’d be selected for All Stars I can’t see why they’d deny the exemption


    Have you met the NRL before?

    Didn't they grant a suspension exemption to 1 player but not another as recently as last year?
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Tue Jan 30, 2024 11:00 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:

    How come it counts for Wighton? Typical bunny stitch-up

    Jared missed the last three games of the Roosters’ season plus the entire Pacific Championships with New Zealand.

    He had attempted to get the All Stars Game included, but Waerea-Hargreaves has not represented the Maori All Stars since 2015.

    Wighton has appeared seven times for the Indigenous All Stars, the joint most all-time.

    That means Wighton will also likely debut in Round 3 against the Roosters, with the first two games plus the All Stars forming his three.

    Seb Kris, who was sent off in the final round of the regular season for the Raiders, was able to include the Kiwis in his five match ban, meaning he returns Round 2 when the Tigers visit Canberra.

    https://www.theroar.com.au/2024/01/30/nrl-round-1-judiciary-vegas-roll-of-the-dice-comes-up-snake-eyes-for-roosters-wighton-gets-repreive/
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    Post by Aardvark Tue Jan 30, 2024 11:05 am

    easytiger wrote:

    I'm not sure Hynes lost the goal-kicking to Trindall - Hynes had a quad injury towards the end of the regular season which explains why he didn't goal kick (also missed R26 as a result) and that issue may have been in the mix with the reduction in general field kicking towards the end of the season.

    Nevertheless, I think you'd expect Trindall should average more KM than Moylan, but I suspect the loss of KM is probably only going to be a few fantasy points.
    It could be offset by Hynes running more which is where he can be pretty good at grabbing TBs & OLs

    It feels like he has a bit more questions over him than Cleary, but I suspect he ends up being there or there-abouts with what we've come to expect the last couple of years.

    I was more curious about the 'I'm locking in Hynes and Cleary to start' talk more than anything else (with the massive disclaimer being I haven't made a team). I suspect that Hynes won't be far from the top of the tree this year either but Trindall starting does give us something to think about if you're going with one or the other which I suspect will be the default position for many of us.

    Personally I'd be thinking long and hard about tying that much salary cap up in one position at the start of the season but again that does depend on the value available both at Half and other positions....which won't become obvious until TLT.

    Anyway I know nothing at this stage so grain of salt and all that.
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Tue Jan 30, 2024 1:37 pm

    Aardvark wrote:

    I was more curious about the 'I'm locking in Hynes and Cleary to start' talk more than anything else (with the massive disclaimer being I haven't made a team). I suspect that Hynes won't be far from the top of the tree this year either but Trindall starting does give us something to think about if you're going with one or the other which I suspect will be the default position for many of us.


    My point exactly mate.  Hynes may score just as well,  but I'm not seeing any upside,  only potential risks.  Cleary meanwhile has multiple seasons of data to build his cred and a settled halves combo. Potential upside too given his average weighed down by injury game,  and had averaged higher in the past (albeit VLandyball)

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