2024 Predicted Forward Rotation

Happy New Year fanatics!

Time for my highly questionable two cents on what each team's general forward rotation will average out around.

Feel free to suggest any edits comrades. Most of you put me to shame every year so your input is more than welcome.

Highlighted in bold are players who are predicted to either take on a new/greater/shittier role at their club and/or have changed clubs. Players returning from large injury layoffs are also boldened

Starting off with the Broncos (condolences)



Brisbane Broncos

Taupau 25
Walters 54
Haas 60 -> 69
Riki 80
Piakura 80 -> 4
Carrigan 65 -> 80

Smoothy 26 -> 44
Baker 25 -> 33
Hetherington 25 -> 35
Jensen 40 -> 56

Post-Round 1 Notes:

Piakura went down early with an HIA as we all know. Walters, Riki and Taupau played an expected amount of minutes.

From Piakura:
Baker picked up 8 minutes
Haas picked up 9 minutes
Hetherington picked up 10 minutes
Carrigan picked up 15 minutes
Jensen picked up 16 minutes
Smoothy picked up 19 minutes

Nothing here suggests that round 2 rotations will be too far off my initial predictions barring injury.

Pre-Season Notes:

Piakura comes in for Capewell and likely plays the full 80 if fit. Doesn’t particularly over-exert himself, opting to stick to his position in the line like a traditional second rower rather than drift in and tally a few extra tackles. Started slowly last year when filling in for Riki with scores of 29 and 31 before hitting his straps. With a break-even of 29, he looks good value with the potential to hit mid-40s. However, if he's not 100% come round 1, expect Willison to hold his place until he returns.

Other than that, there’s not much change in the Broncos forward pack. Jensen will likely move in to the starting pack without much of a minute increase and Willison has been given a pre-season shoutout from Kevvie and will likely have a small impact role off the bench unless called upon in the starting lineup for Piakura.

Canberra Raiders

Papalii 45 (Horsburgh 50 once he returns) -> 38
Levi 55
Tapine 50 (45 post-Horsburgh) -> 55
Hosking 80 (Whitehead when he returns)
Young 80 -> 70
Smithies 60 -> 68

Starling 25
Guler 30 (25 post-Horsburgh) -> 26
Mariota 30 (20 post-Horsburgh)
Saulo 25 (Papali’i 40, post-Horsburgh) -> 22

Post-Round 1 Notes:

The bench (excluding Starling) played about 7mins under expected (78 rather than 85) and Papali’i realised a reduced role a few rounds earlier than predicted. Smithies looks like he would have played 80 if not for his HIA. Young would have played 80 if not for his sin bin.

Pre-Season Notes:

With Horsburgh suspended for the first two matches (depending on whether the NRL’s bizarre suspension allocations strike again), new English recruit Morgan Smithies likely comes in and blows everyone away with a Shaun Fensom-esque workrate only to drop back to the bench to make way for Horsburgh’s return. Don’t be surprised though if Josh Papali’i starts to come off the bench for an impact role much like he did at the end of the regular season last year with Smithies perhaps retaining a starting role.

Mariota, Saulo, Mooney and Hosking will fight it out for two bench roles - one when Horsburgh returns.

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Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

King 45 -> 42
Mahoney 80
Faamausili 35 -> 20
Kikau 70 -> 67
Preston 80 -> 63
Salmon 50 -> 80

Curran 30 -> 63
Hughes 30 -> 28
Morrin 30 -> 25
Mann 30 -> 53

Post-Round 1 Notes:

Definitely a different rotation than expected. Even without Addo-Carr’s injury, Curran, Mann and Salmon would have played big minutes. Max King, Mahoney, Hughes and Morrin all played about as expected. Farmer Silly only played the first quarter and both backrowers still had a 15min break despite JAC going down. I think a realistic Round 2 rotation would see Salmon playing about 60, Curran 50 and Mann 50.

Pre-Season Notes:

Gun fantasy lock Josh Curran likely hops off the Warriors bench and into the Bulldogs starting pack. With a breakeven of 36, Curran’s average of 55 starting at lock and a pedigree for making consistent big scores with any real minutes, make him a must-have.

Liam Knight’s another player who could potentially step up his output with a bigger role predicted in 2024. Has averaged 39 in his career when playing over 40mins and with a breakeven of 28 could be good value. Whether he actually plays 45mins as I’ve predicted is up for debate however. New recruit Kurt Mann and/or Ryan Sutton could play a larger role.

Another potentially undervalued player is Viliame Kikau who has traditionally averaged around the 45 mark with a considerable ceiling. Granted, the vastly superior attacking opportunities he had at the Panthers likely contributed to this. Whether you wanna give him a bit of leeway given it was his first season at the dogs and the potential for them to improve is up to you. A breakeven of 37 makes it a little trickier.

Cronulla Sharks

Kaufusi 30 (Hamlin-Uele 40 when he returns) -> 44
Brailey 80
Hunt 30 -> 19
Nikora 80
Wilton 80
McInnes 55 (45 post BHU return) -> 40

Finucane 40 -> 19
Rudolf 35 -> 31
Hazelton 25 -> 40
Williams 25 -> 47

Post-Round 1 Notes:

One of the more bizarre rotations from round 1. Kaufusi, Hazleton and Williams played more minutes than McInnes, Finucane and Rudolf. Whether this is repeated next week is the question. Royce Hunt played 10 less than expected as well.

Pre-Season Notes:

With the retirement of Wade Graham, either Oregon Kaufusi slides back in the team or Siosifa Talakai makes his rumoured return to the bench to accommodate talented outside back Kayal Iro.

Outside of that, the Sharks forward pack is very settled.

Dolphins

Flegler 45
Marshall-King 80
J Bromwich 40
Kaufusi 80
Lemuelu 80
Stone 45

Kerr 20
Plath 20
Bromwich 35
Nicholls 35

Tom Gilbert likely returns in place of Connelly Lemuelu with Kenny Bromwich moving back out wide. Outside chance that Kenny stays in the middle rotation and one of Lemuelu or Aitken starts on an edge.

Tom Flegler likely plays a similar role to the role he played at the Broncos. Whether or not he ups his output is up in the air.

As appealing as a Dolphins forward would be given they play the first two major bye rounds, there doesn’t appear to be much upside.

Gold Coast Titans

Fotuaika 50 -> 49
Randall 55 -> 53
T Fa’asuamaleaui 55 -> 58
K Haas 80 (first few rounds before Fifita returns)
Fermor 80
Palasia 40 -> 31

Verrills 30 -> 65
Clark 30 -> 27
Jolliffe 30 -> 22
Liu 30 -> 22

Post-Round 1 Notes:

One of the better predicted rotations here. Everyone played close to predicted except Verrills. Palasia, Liu, Clark and Jolliffe all played slightly less than expected and Kini came off at the end. Verrills seemed to pick up every one of those minutes. He’s still not relevant though.

Pre-Season Notes:

Beau Fermor is sure to return to his consistent role on the edge playing 80 with Klese Haas or Jacob Alick holding David Fifita's spot while he's injured.

Keenan Palasia joins the team, likely playing an impact role unless Dessy ops for a more balanced rotation with Mo, Tino and Liu playing slightly less minutes.

Other than that, not much to write home about.

Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

Aloiai 40 -> 36
Croker 57
Paseka 39
Olakau’atu 80
B Trbojevic 65 -> 71
J Trbojevic 80

Lawton 23
Brown 31 -> 52
Bullemor 35 -> 22
Waddell 30 -> 19 (likely Schuster once fit)

Post-Round 1 Notes:

Turns out Ben played 70 rather than 65.
Brown ate all of Bullemor and Waddell’s minutes.
3 minute anomaly in the actual rotation came from Saab’s injury.

Pre-Season Notes:

With Josh Schuster injured for round 1, Ben Trbojevic slides in to the starting team, potentially as a placeholder for Schuster unless can string a few performances together.

Tof Sipley and Matt Lodge will be unavailable for the first 3 and 4 rounds respectively; Gordon Chan Kum Tong and Brad Parker were left in Australia, leaving a bench of Lawton, Bullemor, and new recruits Nathan Brown and Corey Waddell to take the field in Vegas.

Melbourne Storm

Kamikamika 40 -> 52
Grant 65 -> 71
King 55 -> 48
Chan 70 -> 64
Katoa 80
Loiero 50 (40 once NAS returns) -> 60

Wishart 15 -> 12
Welch 45 -> 41
Lewis 30 (NAS 40 once he returns) -> 27
Macdonald 30 -> 25

Post-Round 1 Notes:

Loiero played a lot more minutes than I expected, not enough to be fantasy relevant though. Another surprise was the role of Kamikamika. He played more minutes than King and Welch in the middle but like Loiero still isn’t quite relevant. Joe Chan also didn’t play 80, which still wouldn’t have saved him.

Pre-Season Notes:

After impressing last year, Sua Fa’alogo is a decent chance of snapping up a utility/impact role off the pine after being upgraded to the top 30 in 2024.

Trent Loeiro's apparent move to the middle could see Shawn Blore or Kane Bradley snap up an edge role. Jack Howarth is an outside chance.

Newcastle Knights

L Thompson 45 -> 43
Crossland 55 -> 72
J Saifiti 40 -> 50
Frizell 80
Lucas 80 (potentially Pearce-Paul once he’s match fit) -> 65
Elliott 65 -> 53

Cogger 25 -> 50
D Saifiti 35 -> 43
Pearce-Paul 30 -> 40
Hetherington 25 -> 24

Post-Round 1 Notes:

After Tuala went down, Lucas moved to centre and Gagai to the wing. Crossland, Cogger, and KPP profited from the extra minutes. Additionally, Lucas went off for an HIA in the last 15, further inflating everyones minutes. Interestingly, Adam Elliott didn’t get any of Lucas or Tuala’s minutes, playing less than I predicted without injuries to the outside backs.

Pre-Season Notes:

With Jayden Brailey rumoured to be struggling with a hamstring injury, Crossland will retain his starting role.

With the exit of Lachlan Fitzgibbon, Jed Cartwright would have to be the man who steps in if fantasy coaches are to get any value. Both priced over 40, Lucas and Pearce-Paul would probably both be wait and sees.

New Zealand Warriors

Fonua-Blake 60 -> 56
Egan 60 -> 34
Barnett 40 -> 51
Ford 80
Capewell 80 -> 69
Harris 60 -> 80

Walker 35 -> 57
Ale 25 -> 0
Lussick 20 -> 46
Afoa 20 -> 15

Post-Round 1 Notes:

Egan‘s injury didn’t affect the rotation given Lussick played out the rest of the match at hooker. Ale and Afoa had their minutes drastically cut (Ale didn’t even take the field), likely a consequence of the Warriors chasing points in the second half. Walker and Tohu Harris were the big winners from this move. Additionally, Capewell didn’t play 80 and Taupiki went off late, all benefitting Walker and Harris.

Pre-Season Notes:

After an injury-affected 2023, Tohu Harris could provide a bit of value if his late season form was anything to go by. The grizzly kiwi had a last 5 round average of 59 including the finals and with no tries. A potentially underpriced keeper.

With the arrival of Kurt Capewell, who will likely play out the match most nights (unlike his predecessor Niukore), the Warriors middles might see a slight decrease in minutes.

North Queensland Cowboys

McLean 40
Robson 80
Taumalolo 55
Luki 60
Nanai 80
Cotter 55

Granville 30
Neame 35
Finefeuiaki 20
McIntyre 25

After averaging over 50 in 2022, Reuben Cotter had a surprisingly sharp drop in fantasy output, beginning 2024 with a breakeven of 43. Jason Taumalolo took another step in the wrong direction, averaging a lowly 34 last year, lightyears away from his rippin and a tearin glory days. That 10 year contract is looking like a bit of a blunder. Can either of these two get back to their best? I’ll leave that with you handsome.

Leilua has moved on so that should mean Heilum Luki is good value. He was quite inconsistent last year but still worth a look.

Parramatta Eels

Campbell-Gillard 45 -> 48
Lussick 50 -> 63
Paulo 45 -> 43
Lane 80
B Cartwright 80 -> 68
Hopgood 60 -> 51

Matterson 45 -> 32
Ofahengaue 25 -> 31
Hands 30 -> 17
Tuilagi 20 -> 47

Post-Round 1 Notes:

Lussick actually played decent minutes, sharing with Hands who didn’t eat into the prop/lock rotation. Bizarrely, Tuilagi was given a surprisingly good hit out, playing a lot longer that Ryan Matterson. Carty was also given a spell and Hopgood didn’t play as long as many expected, allowing Ofahengaue and Tuilagi to play longer.

Pre-Season Notes:

After a stop-start season last year, Shaun Lane is a decent shout here. Priced 11 points under his 2022 average of 52 where he went on a post-Origin tear, a return to form would be highly lucrative. The gangly backrower didn’t even score many tries that year. Food for thought.

The hooking role is still up in the air with Brad Arthur declaring his desire for an 80min hooking role. Either Lussick or Hands will get the role and expect whoever gets it to be in every team.

Penrith Panthers

Leota 40 -> 42
Sommerton 45 (Kenny 65 when he returns) -> 48
Fisher-Harris 50 -> 43
Garner 80 -> 56
Martin 70 -> 75
Yeo 80

Luke 35 (Sommerton/Luke 15 when Kenny returns) -> 32
Smith 30 -> 51
Henry 25 -> 35
Eisenhuth 25 -> 18

With Leniu and Salmon gone, Eisenhuth and Garner likely sneak back in on a more consistent basis with promising young forward Liam Henry nipping at their toes.

Nothing else to report, they know what to do.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

Tatola 45 -> 43
Cook 80
Keppie 30 -> 40
Arrow 65 -> 53
Koloamatangi 80
Murray 70 -> 72

Havili 25 -> 27
Moale 20 -> 28
Host 25 -> 21
T Burgess 40 -> 37

Post-Round 1 Notes:

Keppie the only surprise here, playing 10mins more than expected.

Pre-Season Notes:

An interrupted 2023 means big Tevita Tatola could be of some value, 8-10 points perhaps, if he can return to his 2022 levels. Definitely an option.

St George-Illawarra Dragons

de Belin 70 -> 57
Liddle 55 -> 68
F Molo 45 -> 51
Faitala-Mariner 80 -> 74
Su’a 80
Eisenhuth 50 -> 60

Muhleisen 25 -> 12
M Molo 25 -> 48
Murdoch-Masila 25 -> 15
Fifita 25 -> 14

Post-Round 1 Notes:

Another surprising rotation here. Eisenhuth played the most minutes in the middle with Blake Lawrie out injured. Michael Molo also had a significant role, leaving little for Murdoch-Masila and Fifita. Liddle had a good run at hooker with Muhleisen barely used.

Pre-Season Notes:

Jack Bird moves back to the centres with former Dragon Luciano Leilua returning to the backrow. No value in the Dragons pack for fantasy coaches, as per usual.

Sydney Roosters

Leniu 35 (Waerea-Hargreaves 40 when he returns) -> 42
B Smith 55
Collins 55 (50 when JWH returns) -> 60
Wong 60 -> 52
Tupouniua 80 -> 43
Radley 70 -> 80

S Smith 25
Whyte 20 -> 15
N Butcher 40 -> 54
May 40 -> 54

Post-Round 1 Notes:

Sitili came off early with pain in his left groin. Nat Butcher and Terrell May were the big beneficiaries, with Radley also perhaps playing a few extra minutes. Wong also came off with an injury as well so its hard to predict how many minutes both he and Sitili will come back and play when fully fit. The flow-on effect for the middle rotation is also hard to foresee.

Pre-Season Notes:

With Jared Waerea-Hargreaves suspended for a maximum of 4 matches, dependent on the NRL’s bogus attribution of suspensions to pre-season matches, Egan Butcher is likely to hang around as a placeholder. Depending on what Robbo wants to do, we could see Connor Watson return after a lengthy absence. Egan Butcher, Still Tupouniua and Sandon Smith could yet supersede him.

Siua Wong could potentially provide a bit of value even if he only plays 50 mins like he did a couple times last year to accommodate Crichton. If he gets the full 80, look out.

Terrell May is certainly one who tickles my fancy. Even with a strong lineup at the back-end of the year, the bloke commanded minutes with his impact and workrate. Regularly hitting scores above 50 in the last few regular season games with limited minutes, his hot form culminated in a staggering 84 without a try from 56mins in week 2 of the finals. Food for thought.

Wests Tigers

Klemmer 50
Koroisau 80
Utoikamanu 45
Bateman 80
Papali’i 80
Pole/Seyfarth 40/50

Simpkin/Galvin 15
S Fainu 20
Twal 40
Seyfarth/Pole 30/20

Alex Seyfarth might be a chance of nabbing the lock role from Fonua Pole, playing somewhere between 40 and 50minutes.

Outside of that, Koroisau might be value if playing 80 and goalkicking.

If you've made it this far, you're not only a studious little fantasy wizz, you're also incredibly handsome. I see great things in your future

Alfie wrote:

Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

King 45
Mahoney 65
Knight 45
Kikau 80
Preston 80
Curran 60

Taaffe 15
Edwards/Faitala-Mariner/Hughes 25
Sutton 35
Mann 30

Gun fantasy lock Josh Curran likely hops off the Warriors bench and into the Bulldogs starting pack. With a breakeven of 36, Curran’s average of 55 starting at lock and a pedigree for making consistent big scores with any real minutes make him a must-have.

Liam Knight’s another player who could potentially step up his output with a bigger role predicted in 2024. Has averaged 39 in his career when playing over 40mins and with a breakeven of 28 could be good value. Whether he actually plays 45mins as I’ve predicted is up for debate however. New recruit Kurt Mann and/or Ryan Sutton could play a larger role.

Another potentially undervalued player is Viliame Kikau who has traditionally averaged around the 45 mark with a considerable ceiling. Granted, the vastly superior attacking opportunities he had at the Panthers likely contributed to this. Whether you wanna give him a bit of leeway given it was his first season at the dogs and the potential for them to improve is up to you. A breakeven of 37 makes it a little trickier.

Thanks for taking the time to do this.

Not sure we would see both Mann and Taaffe on the bench. Mann is very versatile as a utility, in case there is an injury anywhere on the field, we have seen him play Fullback, CTR, EDG, HLF, HOK, MID. No need to have Taaffe there as well, when Mann covers both positions that he plays.

Salmon is a bigger body that can play in the forwards if needed, similar to how they used Okunbor last season.

Alfie wrote:

Gold Coast Titans

Fotuaika 50
Verrills 80
T Fa’asuamaleaui 50
Fifita 80
Fermor 80
Liu 45

Clark 25
Jolliffe 25
Palasia 25
I Fa’asuamaleaui 20

Beau Fermor is sure to return to his consistent role on the edge playing 80 with Klese Haas either moving back to the bench or out of the team.

Keenan Palasia joins the team, likely playing an impact role unless Dessy ops for a more balanced rotation with Mo, Tino and Liu playing slightly less minutes.

Other than that, not much to write home about.

Tino averaged 62 minutes last season and is the captain. I can't see him dropping minutes this year. If playing lock for Des, he could easily have an increase in minutes, closer to 80.