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    2023 Season Retro (or how I learned to stop worrying and overachieved to 82nd)

    robelgordo
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    2023 Season Retro (or how I learned to stop worrying and overachieved to 82nd) Empty 2023 Season Retro (or how I learned to stop worrying and overachieved to 82nd)

    Post by robelgordo Mon Sep 11, 2023 6:24 am

    And I didn't do the tracker thing this year, but I did track things. In a spreadsheet I'd update once a week and in a note on my phone I'd pop all kinds of ideas in.

    So I definitely think these team planners/trackers are valuable. Which I why I though it'd be useful to put it all together and sometime in Jan/Feb I can look and hopefully redo the good stuff, ignore the bad stuff, and back up with some more solid results.

    Because nobody likes a fluke*

    And maybe if anyone else reads they get something from it as well.


    First up - STARTING SQUAD

    HOK: Kenny (426)
    MID: Haas (809), Carrigan (716)
    HOK/MID: Cheese (585)
    EDG: Fifita (771), Eutcher (561), eKatoa (448), Doorey (250)
    MID/EDG: Hopgood (453)

    HOK/HLF: Boyd (479)

    HLF: Cleary (957), Douiehi (771), Trindall (250), iKatoa (230)
    CTR: HSS (250), Talau (250), Alamoti (230)
    WFB: Turbo (638), CNK (372), Warbrick (230)
    HLF/WFB: TMM

    One key difference from previous two seasons was no absolute howlers, unlike 2022 (no Hynes Embarassed ) and 2021 (also gross, with no Fifita and some other big misses)

    Having said that, in hindsight it's not bad, but nor is it that good. Pretty unbalanced positionally and I did miss often - there was no Carty Party, or Miller, Or Loeiro, and probably also missed a few other great early season cows I'm forgetting. Meanwhile I had Douiehi, and a CTR pairing of HSS/Talau, and so on.

    I think Boozecluez showed this better than anyone - you don't need a perfect start to succeed. I didn't do it as well as him obviously, but **spolier alert** from around R5 I gained ranks almost every week until the last month of the season.

    So I don't think you have to pick the most vanilla side ever to set yourself up, like others prescribe. You can take some risks. But you do need to just to course correct and make cash.


    Next post will be trades by round, post after might be trades in a slightly different view.



    *In terms of fluke, after this 82nd my highest rank in 5 seasons is 996th (ran out of trades and dropped from 400ish in the last week). So seems outlier-y.

    BUT this season my Autofill team would've made L3, and I won Draft L2 plus made the GF in both my non-NRL fantasy draft leagues. So 2023 is a very broad-based fluke I guess. Whatever my process is, it seemed to work. At least this season.
    easytiger
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    2023 Season Retro (or how I learned to stop worrying and overachieved to 82nd) Empty Re: 2023 Season Retro (or how I learned to stop worrying and overachieved to 82nd)

    Post by easytiger Tue Sep 12, 2023 10:09 pm

    I'm looking forward to the next installment.

    I also don't think you can fluke your way to top 100 - so congrats on a well played season.

    I do think you can be a good player and get a few decisions wrong (or be just slightly off process) and find yourself way back in the pack - so maybe the other seasons were a type of outlier

    You don't need a perfect start to succeed, especially with such a difficult bye period. I do think you want to be in that top 1-2k after the first month is done.
    Having a higher rank early obviously reduces the pressure to nail big calls.
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Wed Sep 13, 2023 5:24 am

    Thanks mate, hoping to do part 2 this arvo. Or at least start. Could be a long one!

    Without looking too closely at past years, I think
    - 2021 was a large part bad process e.g. refusing to get player X because he was no longer cheap, when a better process is: player x is no longer at his cheapest, but still value
    - 2022 was one shocking early decision and then I think the process was ok given squad value constraints, without translating to ranks until late

    2023 is likely some good variance but hoping a better process means bad variance still leads to decent results!

    robelgordo
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    2023 Season Retro (or how I learned to stop worrying and overachieved to 82nd) Empty Re: 2023 Season Retro (or how I learned to stop worrying and overachieved to 82nd)

    Post by robelgordo Wed Sep 13, 2023 6:22 am

    Breaking this up, because its too long/too much work for one post

    ROUND BY ROUND - part 1/3

    R1 - 829pts, 8053 overall rank (OR)

    R2 - 778pts, 6061 OR
    Talau (248k) to Preston (232k)

    I think I was initially holding pat here but able to make the switch when Preston was a late starter.

    R3 - 776pts, 9989 OR
    TMM (319) to Perham (332)
    Cheese (531) to BMM (256)

    TMM made a whole 6k in 2 weeks, I think he went alright the next 2-3 before getting injured. Perham was a slight upgrade but WFB still quite weak.

    In hindsight Cheese needed to go before R2 not after, or just hold through the dip. I do remember having about 4 players I liked at MID as replacements and going with BMM as the cheapest. I think "player I'd most likely have a beer with" also came into the thinking. Others were Leo Thompson, Uto and I can't remember - but all 3 turned out to be better options than BMM.

    R4 - 974pts, 5756 OR
    Doueihi (749) to Johnson (646)
    Doorey (319) to Lemuelu (445)

    Spoiler - nobody in my starting squad makes it through the full season so these two ended up being my longest holds.

    SJ seems a no brainer now, but back then there was an element of 'maybe he's still cooked'. I'd actually bought in SJ about R4 the season before, and it didn't work, so I was wary.
    Similarly NULL was not guaranteed a job at this stage. But I really need to remove Doorey and was at least 80% confident the EDG role was his. Although I probably could've got Carty here. Never did.

    R5 - 940pts, 8340 OR
    Eutcher (538) to Hosking (541)
    BMM (252) to Ford (383)

    I think these were super standard and both worked well.

    R6 - 893pts, 7548 OR
    Trindall (392) to Nikorima (254)

    Why I was willing to punt on Trindall but not Carty? Lesson there. Anyway I clearly got more bold in season, because Niko was not a sure thing either. Worked out pretty well.

    R7 - 821pts, 5339 OR
    Hopgood (717) to Bird (626)
    Perham (457) to Tedesco (616)
    Kenny (464) to Cheese (467)

    Trades up to 3 per round, and I've maxed it first up, including Perham to Teddy being the first serious "cow to gun" type upgrade of the season. 2 years running I grabbed Teddy into the season near the dip, would recommend.

    Hopgood was benched one week and a lot of people jumped off having made a big profit. Obviously it wasn't necessary to do this but getting Bird was good - in past seasons I would've been "eww too expensive for a CTR" but until midseason he was an obvious keeper in that position and arguably at EDG if you needed it.

    I'm still surprised by how poor Kenny ended up being all season. His only 2 decent scores were immediately after I sold him, I think. Still better to rip the bandaid off here - if I'd kept, yeah I get those good scores, but I probably hold him for all the following bad scores and cash loss up to Origin.

    After 6 weeks of not doing much rank-wise, this is the start of the "charge"

    R8 - 929pts, 2662 OR
    HSS (273) to Granville (267)

    Last shitto removed, Granville was a pretty decent risk preying on my weakness for coin goat MIDs, but worked out ok. I think there was a bunch of us here on Sat night making a very late call to bring him in and riding him to mid 30s together. Good times.

    Halved my rank this round, would've been the 1st or 5 door dash vouchers for top 1000 rank round in the old days.

    R9 - 942pts, 1453 OR
    Alamoti (415) to Manu (615)
    Turbo (551) to Drinkwater (504)
    Warbrick (390) to Bula (247)

    I think at the time I was dirty at having to do a triple bypass procedure to my WFB position as there were some top players available elsewhere (Horse, JdB). I think this was some poor squad structure from the outset coming home to roost, but ultimately it didn't hurt the week or season prospects too much. I was a very early adopter of Drinkwater, at the time was hoping for some 40s and SOO 1 cover.

    Manu and Bula obviously good buys, but also the right time to remove Alamoti and Warbrick too. I still think Alamoti is still a very good prospect, and having done a reverse of Burton/Kikau/Crichton, I half expect he beds down a 1st grade spot next year at the Panthers and guns it.


    Next installment: the top 1000 and beyond!
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    2023 Season Retro (or how I learned to stop worrying and overachieved to 82nd) Empty Re: 2023 Season Retro (or how I learned to stop worrying and overachieved to 82nd)

    Post by robelgordo Wed Sep 13, 2023 8:59 am

    ROUND BY ROUND - part 2/3

    R10 - 998pts, 858 OR
    Preston (626) to Horse (623)

    Oh hello top 1000.

    Obviously no issue getting in the Horse, but Preston out was premature. Thought process at the time was I have Hosking/Preston/Katoa, and only need 2 through the byes. Katoa price was stalled due to a HIA, but had otherwise scored well without tries. Hosking was a good player in a good team. In hindsight I picked the wrong horse to get Horse.

    R11 - 925pts, 1119 OR
    Ford (537) to Hopgood (719)

    Oh goodbye top 1000 Sad

    R12 - 1094pts, 247 OR
    Hosking (688) to Tatola (445)
    iKatoa (435) to Koula (444)

    Boom! Big round, 1st of 7 1000+ in the season and 178 rank for the week. Trades that week... had little to do with it. Two good outs but the ins were #bigbyeplanning and probably not in a way that really moved the needle. I grabbed Koula just in time for him to be the absolute shits, later selling him just in time for him to become Turbo 2

    R13 - 702pts, 187 OR
    Cheese (564) to Koloa (734)
    Boyd (695) to Cook (698)
    Haas (880) Harris (671)

    Good big bye week #1 but not without a few "you fucked up" moments.

    Firstly, Boyd to Cook. An absolute steal for 3k, something you wouldn't even have conceived as possible pre-season. The problem is I flirted with Captain Cook, before making like Hawaii and killing the idea... EXCEPT I accidentally left the VC on him when switching the C off. And I had Granville in #14. Noticed Sat morning and even posted something like "I've locked in Cook and locked out Granville oh well what are the odds I'll want to reverse lol". Well Granville scored 55. Cook did get 60, but definitely a wasted trade. Especially when Cook ended up back in the Origin team.

    Secondly, Koloa straight off his injury was not the right play and he never did recapture his early season form. I'd be hoping for a bye period boom from him, did not happen.

    Thirdly, Haas out... was actually ok and not a fuck-up. Was always going to be Carrigan out but he scored 97 the week before and I did some quick maffs and decided it was better to play Russian roulette with Haas over Origin instead. Harris was solid. I think worth it?

    R14 - 859pts, 140 OR
    Fifita (934) to Hynes ([Dr.Evil]ONE MILLION DOLLARS[/Dr.Evil])
    Bird (688) to iPap (706)

    My most and least favourite trades of the season, all in one week!

    Least favourite first - Bird to iPap. Bird was done, but all week I was on Bateman on the basis of when it's 50/50 go the upside. And Bateman was slightly more attacking (more offloads and TBs) and there was a hint he might spent some time in the middle. In the end I asked some very smart people and they all said it should be iPap for very smart reasons... but it wasn't my way. Note not blaming the people here, blaming my process. I felt dirty about this pick all season, even when I thought iPap would finally outscore him in R27. Then he shit the bed anyway just to rub it in.

    Most favourite - Fifita to Hynes. Not aware of a single other person with the balls to do this. Not sure I've ever made a live (under 1hr before kickoff) this clever before. AND IT PAID OFF. Only regret - brining back Fifita later, he was fairly underwhelming post Origin

    R15 - 965pts, 302 OR
    Cleary (993) to Ponga (444)

    This rank drop felt like a big blow at the time, but it was a blip. This and round 11 are my only red arrows between R5 and R22. Nice bit of business getting Ponga so cheap before he went into God mode, but I think most would have.

    R16 - 866pts, 105 OR
    eKatoa (542) to Matterson (756)
    CNK (550) to Gutherson (549)
    Tatola (503) to NAS (537)
    Nikorima (527) to Simpkin (220)

    Big bye week 2, 63rd for the round. On face value - went the full 4 trades and it worked. But it kinda didn't?
    - Matto was a below par for price
    - Gutho got ruined by an inexplicable Origin selection, so I only played him 2 weeks
    - Flipped one short-term mid MID (Tatola) for another (NAS)
    - Hands was better than Simpkin
    Main takeaway here is banked trades are good even if you don't use them optimally?

    R17 - 940pts, 104 OR
    Granville (424) to Grant (756)

    Definitely no ragrets getting the best HOK in the game for a dodgy coin goat, even if Grant's season back-end wasn't worth the ticket price.

    R18 - 1022pts, 101 OR
    Koula (366) to Kiraz (446)

    This trade is frustrating just because it seems good process but bad outcome. Koula was crap and R19 bye. Kiraz was a solid prospect with a great base, but gets 12 the first week  and outscored by Koula to stall his cash gen. Then he does ok R19 as planned, get absolutely robbed of getting CTR DPP, has a bye, CTR DPP would be useful but is stuck at WFB, then injured right as Koula moves to WFB and scores like an uber gun.


    Next installment later in the week: the top 100!!


    Last edited by robelgordo on Mon Sep 18, 2023 1:37 am; edited 1 time in total
    easytiger
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    2023 Season Retro (or how I learned to stop worrying and overachieved to 82nd) Empty Re: 2023 Season Retro (or how I learned to stop worrying and overachieved to 82nd)

    Post by easytiger Fri Sep 15, 2023 9:59 am

    easytiger wrote:
    You don't need a perfect start to succeed, especially with such a difficult bye period. I do think you want to be in that top 1-2k after the first month is done.
    Having a higher rank early obviously reduces the pressure to nail big calls.

    Well I guess being 7548th after 6 rounds and making it comfortably into the top 100 certainly puts an end to my thoughts of how high you want to be to start.
    Great stuff btw.

    I too appreciate your Fifita->Hynes call.
    I often think the trade-outs can be some of the biggest moves in the game, but they tend to go less noticed. Booze with jumping off Miller early was another good example of this
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Fri Sep 15, 2023 12:38 pm

    Thanks mate. I’ll try and get to the end of the season over the weekend
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    Post by robelgordo Mon Sep 18, 2023 1:37 am

    ROUND BY ROUND - part 3/3

    R19 - 711pts, 91 OR
    Cook (703) to JdB (799)
    Koloa (648) to Penis (599)
    Gutho (633) to Kris (315)

    Got rid of 3 guys I thought would be available R19 but ended up in the NSW team #byeplanning. Long-term none of these replacements really worked out for various reasons.

    R20 - 1010pts, OR 79
    Carrigan (786) to Fifita (852)
    Bula (539) to Munster (718)
    Simpkin (376) to Hands (376)

    Carrigan was the last of my R1 team to be sold (admittedly some had been bought back). Fifita's price didn't dip quite as much over Origin as anticipated, but still think the move to sell was correct just for the 1st week. Probably the move to buy back that with hindsight wasn't great, as his season back end was poor. He seems like one of those players who gets tired, whereas other players, like his teammate Tino seem to finish strong.

    Should've done DCE over Munster, but don't ind my process. Should've done Hands over Simpkin 3 round earlier. Didn't know Lussick was coming, of course.

    R21 - 1022pts, OR 64
    Manu (713) to Cleary (993)

    Team was absolutely flying now, wouldn't last

    R22 - 1022pts, OR 45
    NAS (606) to Murray (676)
    Harris (682) to DCE (737)

    Peak rank achieved, almost all downhill from here. The Harris -> DCE trade was where it probably started to go wrong, as I overplayed my hand slightly. Could've held Harris, played Kiraz (scored 2 more than DCE anyway), and then next week got DCE for a suspended JdB while saving a trade. That saved trade might've been handy in R27...

    R23 - 1114pts, OR 51
    NO TRADES

    Can't recall why I decided to sit on a suspended JdB. This was the silly round where you could score 1100+ and lose ranks

    R24 - 928pts, OR 49
    JdB (788) to Haas (853)
    Hands (459) to Cotric (220)

    It's some game where bringing in Cotric was probably a better move than bringing in Haas.

    R25 - 1010pts, OR 56
    NO TRADES

    With 2 trades left I still kinda look primed here for a late run. This is before we knew what R27 was

    R26 - 980pts, OR 65
    Penis (504) to Manu (653)

    I didn't need Penis for my 17, he had a bye in R27, Manu was going to play FB. Solid move until he does his hammy and 43878954794219000065 players are unavailable for the last round

    R27 - 696pts, OR 82
    Matterson (630) to Hunt (653)

    #FUN
    Think Hunt was a decent upside play plus he was cheap enough that I could remove Matto because he was my unavailable player that most annoyed me in-season.

    The silly play here was not Hunt, but captain Fifita. If I'd captain one of the 3 HLFs I owned that scored 90, I think I ended around 69 OR (nice).

    Anyway I'd worked out I was going to finish top 100 and L1 unless something truly insane happened, so making the +EV decision in a round where nearly everyone was playing 3-6 guys short wasn't really grabbing my interest.


    So that is the season!

    Starting team was average, but aside from BMM I didn't really make a bad decision until maybe R12, even some risky ones paid off, so got right in the mix.

    Then when the trades didn't all hit, I had enough up my sleeve to bludgeon my way up the ranks through superior bye numbers.

    It was only in the back end when getting more 50/50s wrong than right starting hurting a little, and like everyone grossly underestimated the late season carnage.

    3 best trades
    1. R14 - Fifita to Hynes
    Balls
    2. R9 - Turbo to Drinkwater (as good as doing Drink to Turbo in 2021)
    3. R6 - Trindall to Niko (big risk but trusted the process)

    3 worst trades
    1. R14 - Bird to iPap (went against process not getting Bateman)
    2. R22 - Harris to DCE (overaggressive and for the butterfly effect)
    3. R13 - Boyd to Cook (just for idiotically locking in Cook as VC)
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    Post by easytiger Tue Sep 19, 2023 4:21 am

    I think Bhunt was a fair play in the last round, there's a world where he goes 80+ in a one-off against the Knights.

    Fifita was a surprise way to finish a great season.


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    Post by robelgordo Wed Sep 20, 2023 9:33 am

    Last bit - a slightly weird look at squad progression

    Does not show you the full story, as obviously trades are often made in bundles. So not as straightforward as "Alamoti became Cleary", few enabling complimentary trades besides those.

    2023 Season Retro (or how I learned to stop worrying and overachieved to 82nd) Squadp11

    Note the prices are post R27, I'm sure there are points earlier in the season where I reached the magical 15m squad value mark

    I think one thing that stands out is that I got fairly lucky with choosing the right guns and avoiding injuries to guns (until R26/27). Most of my wasting trades is in the mid/lower range, and sometimes deliberate bye week shenanigans.

      Current date/time is Sat Jun 22, 2024 12:21 pm