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    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread

    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Thu Jul 13, 2023 6:09 pm

    Camo123 wrote:

    Sounds all good, similar with Boyd and Brimson you can reverse if Fifita is out as same game/team

    If you’re able to, can you check my tracker for my conundrum
    Thanks mate will look soon for sure just doing a Q and A with Scoop.
    standard-issue
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    Post by standard-issue Thu Jul 13, 2023 6:18 pm

    Snatchpato wrote:
    L-Jimmy wrote:



    I'm a fan too - nice work @ynot !

    The way to deal with @lukeayee 's (correct) criticism is to build two models. The model you have here is a model of actual outcomes.

    The model you need to complement it and add intelligence (a cute way of saying observed-minus-predicted) is a model of predicted outcomes - some folks here would've seen the xG stuff soccer uses (and is seen in FPL).

    This sounds complex, but fortunately you've already darn near everything you need to build the predicted model! Easiest option is to rely on autocorrelation (i.e. tomorrow=yesterday+today+randomness) - a variant of which is how we price players.

    A better (still easy) option is throw everything you can think of together in a LASSO or something, and take the top few predictors and back-build the model. Happy to help with R/Python code here if useful.

    A full-powered predictive model is a big chunk of work (needs player identification, weather, trends in each, injuries, player-vs-players stats, season point, distance from Origin, etc etc) because it needs separate models for each position&player. But then you'd have a betting forecasting model that'd beat Sportsbet. Again, happy to help but given the quanta of work it'd be less hands-on-code help and more advice.



    I am familiar with some of these words.

    I can lift heavy things.
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Thu Jul 13, 2023 6:44 pm

    Shady2K wrote:The u19 blues don't get origin either

    Three kids named Ethan scoring nearly all the points is lol
    The Bludger#2
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    Post by The Bludger#2 Thu Jul 13, 2023 6:52 pm

    Snatchpato wrote:
    I am familiar with some of these words.

    As an English teacher I am unfamiliar with these words.
    Forget maths equations or averages, I go with gut-feel.
    (This is why I suck at Fantasy) cheer
    the_great_wobbler
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    Post by the_great_wobbler Thu Jul 13, 2023 7:23 pm

    On the topic of data analysis does a public data set exist anywhere? Thinking about learning r and no better way to do it than through the lens of something that holds your attention.
    OB
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    Post by OB Thu Jul 13, 2023 7:39 pm

    No Worries wrote:

    Only days that dont end in Y. The RLPA is a joke, the players don't even know why there is a ban

    It sounds like you're taking that opinion straight from the media.

    Cheese was talking on James Graham's podcast and it sounds like there is pretty widespread support for the action from the player base, that the decision was ultimately made by them, and that the reasons they are doing it are pretty important to them.
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Thu Jul 13, 2023 7:44 pm

    Think I’m gonna sell Boyd to Fifita over Brimson to allow more funds to get Cleary back in. If SJ is out this week I’ll probs just go straight to Cleary.

    Might have to go give up Grant or can go Hopgood to Grant next week and consider Preston to DCE next week etc….

    Makes my 17-21 a bit weaker but it is what it is. And I’d have to forget about Murray.

    Robson/Grant SJ/DCE/Preston Matto M. King
    Brimson Lemuelu Hands Kris

    Does that look strong enough?

    Scoopadifuego
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    Post by Scoopadifuego Thu Jul 13, 2023 7:46 pm

    Rabbits21 wrote:Think I’m gonna sell Boyd to Fifita over Brimson to allow more funds to get Cleary back in. If SJ is out this week I’ll probs just go straight to Cleary.

    Might have to go give up Grant or can go Hopgood to Grant next week and consider Preston to DCE next week etc….

    Makes my 17-21 a bit weaker but it is what it is. And I’d have to forget about Murray.

    Robson/Grant SJ/DCE/Preston Matto M. King
    Brimson Lemuelu Hands Kris

    Does that look strong enough?


    It is if you have a looper most weeks.
    Robertneville
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    Post by Robertneville Thu Jul 13, 2023 8:42 pm

    BCT05 wrote:Pretty unsure what to do this week myself. I have two pretty much locked in trades in Tapine to Yeo and Boyd to Cleary assuming he is good to go. 

    But then I'm not sure if I should just keep going and go big. There is an option where I make 4 trades this week and 2 next week and then hang on for dear life from there with 3 trades left. 

    It would involve binning both Null and Bula and I'm really not sure how I feel about each of them, Null in particular. Feels weird trading out a CTR playing 80 at second row. Some poor scoring lately but we also know he can go big. Maybe Penis is a better trade out with the late bye to come...

    I have been planing to do the very same thing; 4 this week and 2 next week to bring in 5 guns and 1 cashout and then trying to hold on 'til the end.

    What's causing me the most consternation is that I'll need to trade out 2 Tigers this week, and with them playing the first game I don't want to risk trading in origin players who may get rested as I'll have no way to reverse.
    B/L
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    Post by B/L Thu Jul 13, 2023 8:46 pm

    mattnz wrote:Great to hear SJ will be back at Warriors. A chance to build next year with him back and RTS adding some real quality to the backline.
    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread - Page 6 Giphy
    Snatchpato
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    Post by Snatchpato Fri Jul 14, 2023 1:44 am

    The Bludger#2 wrote:

    As an English teacher I am unfamiliar with these words.
    Forget maths equations or averages, I go with gut-feel.
    (This is why I suck at Fantasy) cheer
    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread - Page 6 Tenor
    Ponga Yeo the Mann
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    Post by Ponga Yeo the Mann Fri Jul 14, 2023 3:21 am

    Garrick or marzhew for my last WFB spot?

    TU Greg
    TD Reuben
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Fri Jul 14, 2023 3:44 am

    GarethEllisismyDad wrote:watching the U19 state of origin ready for next years cheapies!

    Too late for the "look out for" post but Chevy Stewart is the next big thing at fullback and Blake Mozer at hooker. Both will be very fantasy relevant in the next few years

    From what I've seen previously this game has the best hit rate for future NRL talent

    Take a look at this line up from 2019 to see some current/developing stars with only a handful of misses

    https://www.nrl.com/draw/state-of-origin-u20s/2019/round-1/nsw-u20s-v-qld-u20s/
    Liverpool_Bulldog
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Fri Jul 14, 2023 4:06 am

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    Too late for the "look out for" post but Chevy Stewart is the next big thing at fullback and Blake Mozer at hooker. Both will be very fantasy relevant in the next few years

    From what I've seen previously this game has the best hit rate for future NRL talent

    Take a look at this line up from 2019 to see some current/developing stars with only a handful of misses

    https://www.nrl.com/draw/state-of-origin-u20s/2019/round-1/nsw-u20s-v-qld-u20s/
    Those halves combos!
    GarethEllisismyDad
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    Post by GarethEllisismyDad Fri Jul 14, 2023 4:20 am

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    Too late for the "look out for" post but Chevy Stewart is the next big thing at fullback and Blake Mozer at hooker. Both will be very fantasy relevant in the next few years

    From what I've seen previously this game has the best hit rate for future NRL talent

    Take a look at this line up from 2019 to see some current/developing stars with only a handful of misses

    https://www.nrl.com/draw/state-of-origin-u20s/2019/round-1/nsw-u20s-v-qld-u20s/

    The Canberra guy who got a hatrick ethan strange was awesome

    The winger Ethan Ferguson was decent too

    Both fainu played good

    That’s all i noticed half watching
    Liverpool_Bulldog
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Fri Jul 14, 2023 4:46 am

    If any of you champions spot any Carrigan news today feel free to post. 😊
    Revraiser
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    Post by Revraiser Fri Jul 14, 2023 4:55 am

    Jfc. The Sunday night 6pm game again. Who wants that
    Finch
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    Post by Finch Fri Jul 14, 2023 4:58 am

    Revraiser wrote:Jfc. The Sunday night 6pm game again. Who wants that

    4/6/8 here in NZ

    I don't mind it but I love my footy
    Finch
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    Post by Finch Fri Jul 14, 2023 4:59 am

    Really interested to see who the dogs go with, either Skelton or Alamoti and push Kiraz to the wing

    I need to bring in a CTR/WFB this week, might just grab Skelton if he gets the nod, feel like Staggs would own him though if on the same side
    Revraiser
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    Post by Revraiser Fri Jul 14, 2023 5:01 am

    Finch wrote:

    4/6/8 here in NZ

    I don't mind it but I love my footy

    I get it,but they just have no idea. No pulse check.


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