NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 70 - the Happy Birthday Random thread

Camo123 wrote:

Sounds all good, similar with Boyd and Brimson you can reverse if Fifita is out as same game/team

If you’re able to, can you check my tracker for my conundrum

Snatchpato wrote:

L-Jimmy wrote:



I'm a fan too - nice work @ynot !

The way to deal with @lukeayee 's (correct) criticism is to build two models. The model you have here is a model of actual outcomes.

The model you need to complement it and add intelligence (a cute way of saying observed-minus-predicted) is a model of predicted outcomes - some folks here would've seen the xG stuff soccer uses (and is seen in FPL).

This sounds complex, but fortunately you've already darn near everything you need to build the predicted model! Easiest option is to rely on autocorrelation (i.e. tomorrow=yesterday+today+randomness) - a variant of which is how we price players.

A better (still easy) option is throw everything you can think of together in a LASSO or something, and take the top few predictors and back-build the model. Happy to help with R/Python code here if useful.

A full-powered predictive model is a big chunk of work (needs player identification, weather, trends in each, injuries, player-vs-players stats, season point, distance from Origin, etc etc) because it needs separate models for each position&player. But then you'd have a betting forecasting model that'd beat Sportsbet. Again, happy to help but given the quanta of work it'd be less hands-on-code help and more advice.

I am familiar with some of these words.

Snatchpato wrote:
I am familiar with some of these words.

Rabbits21 wrote:Think I’m gonna sell Boyd to Fifita over Brimson to allow more funds to get Cleary back in. If SJ is out this week I’ll probs just go straight to Cleary.

Might have to go give up Grant or can go Hopgood to Grant next week and consider Preston to DCE next week etc….

Makes my 17-21 a bit weaker but it is what it is. And I’d have to forget about Murray.

Robson/Grant SJ/DCE/Preston Matto M. King
Brimson Lemuelu Hands Kris

Does that look strong enough?

BCT05 wrote:Pretty unsure what to do this week myself. I have two pretty much locked in trades in Tapine to Yeo and Boyd to Cleary assuming he is good to go. 

But then I'm not sure if I should just keep going and go big. There is an option where I make 4 trades this week and 2 next week and then hang on for dear life from there with 3 trades left. 

It would involve binning both Null and Bula and I'm really not sure how I feel about each of them, Null in particular. Feels weird trading out a CTR playing 80 at second row. Some poor scoring lately but we also know he can go big. Maybe Penis is a better trade out with the late bye to come...

mattnz wrote:Great to hear SJ will be back at Warriors. A chance to build next year with him back and RTS adding some real quality to the backline.

The Bludger#2 wrote:

As an English teacher I am unfamiliar with these words.
Forget maths equations or averages, I go with gut-feel.
(This is why I suck at Fantasy)

GarethEllisismyDad wrote:watching the U19 state of origin ready for next years cheapies!

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Too late for the "look out for" post but Chevy Stewart is the next big thing at fullback and Blake Mozer at hooker. Both will be very fantasy relevant in the next few years

From what I've seen previously this game has the best hit rate for future NRL talent

Take a look at this line up from 2019 to see some current/developing stars with only a handful of misses

https://www.nrl.com/draw/state-of-origin-u20s/2019/round-1/nsw-u20s-v-qld-u20s/

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Too late for the "look out for" post but Chevy Stewart is the next big thing at fullback and Blake Mozer at hooker. Both will be very fantasy relevant in the next few years

From what I've seen previously this game has the best hit rate for future NRL talent

Take a look at this line up from 2019 to see some current/developing stars with only a handful of misses

https://www.nrl.com/draw/state-of-origin-u20s/2019/round-1/nsw-u20s-v-qld-u20s/

Revraiser wrote:Jfc. The Sunday night 6pm game again. Who wants that

Finch wrote:

4/6/8 here in NZ

I don't mind it but I love my footy