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    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 55 - Big red and the KP comeback

    GreenSchist
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    Post by GreenSchist Tue May 30, 2023 1:25 pm

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:

    From what we have learnt so far this year my approach will be different next year

    - Try to avoid guys that have early byes in the first 5-6 rounds. These stalled cash gen and also total points
    - Trade in the best players regardless of byes until about round 10.
    - Max trade in 12 and 13 to bring in 7 bye players. Assuming should have 3 or so out of 21 organically this gets to a healthy 10. If you are in with a chance at overall you can grab 3 more in round 11
    - It feels harder to make up ground in the "big byes" with only 13 players on the field so I think making sure you have a good 17 in the other rounds is equally important

    Agree with all of the above. I would also add:

    - Don't be afraid to trust your gut and make trades. Treat Fantasy like the Stock Market. Sell High, Buy Low.
    - Avoid dead spots at the end of your roster (18-21). Early cash gen is key.
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Tue May 30, 2023 1:28 pm

    GreenSchist wrote:

    Agree with all of the above. I would also add:

    - Don't be afraid to trust your gut and make trades. Treat Fantasy like the Stock Market. Sell High, Buy Low.
    - Avoid dead spots at the end of your roster (18-21). Early cash gen is key.


    I would say similar to 2nd point is don’t be afraid to sell underperforming player who is playing bye earlier but miss bye points

    Katoa, Host, Miller are 3 I had which weren’t worth the bye points (also Sloan etc)
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Tue May 30, 2023 1:39 pm

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:
    - Try to avoid guys that have early byes in the first 5-6 rounds. These stalled cash gen and also total points

    There are some clear exceptions.

    Cleary and Hynes both had byes in the first 6 rounds.

    Assume for the sake of argument that Hynes was fit from round 1. starting without either would have been detrimental to your scoring
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Tue May 30, 2023 2:08 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    There are some clear exceptions.

    Cleary and Hynes both had byes in the first 6 rounds.

    Assume for the sake of argument that Hynes was fit from round 1.  starting without either would have been detrimental to your scoring

    Yes you definitely need to lock in a captaincy option early. Having a season like this where there is a 1A and a 1B means you can get away with just the one
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Tue May 30, 2023 2:17 pm

    GreenSchist wrote:

    - Don't be afraid to trust your gut and make trades. Treat Fantasy like the Stock Market. Sell High, Buy Low.
    - Avoid dead spots at the end of your roster (18-21). Early cash gen is key.

    People need to be careful of trusting their gut

    After a few weeks, the gut feel was that Lachlan Miller was a fantasy gun who has tackle breaks for breakfast and had a lot of way to score points.


    Slight tangent to that point. Also every season we see people trading out guns because they look like they've dropped a bit this year, only to see them start killing it as soon as everyone trades them out. If everyone else is trading someone in because they are now cheap, you should probably think twice about selling them yourself


    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Tue May 30, 2023 2:19 pm

    I can't believe you guys didn't give me all this advice earlier in the year... Rolling Eyes
    Boozecluez
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    Post by Boozecluez Tue May 30, 2023 2:19 pm

    I guess we all have different takes on it, I will probably play the opposite but thats me

    Whats the point of having the 'best' players if you lock down that spot at close to full price and when opportunities come along you don't/can't grab them

    Other than your captain then your team should be fairly fluid until the big byes I believe

    Some of my best gains were in weeks like rd9 (storm bye) when people were struggling to field even a full team
    I used the prior round to refresh my team and set it up with a strong 17 and made huge inroads.
    I could have cruised through it too but you have to take calculated risks sometimes too

    Or when JDB,Horsburgh,Lemuelu,Johnson were all cheap and on the up I pulled the trigger then.
    Or the same approach with any fallen gun, how long do you wait to bring them in?

    You see all too often "should have or can't grab them when they were 200k cheaper 4 rounds ago" as they then bring them in round 13 for the bye.
    Or the player you were looking at has a low game the round prior so you get cold feet.

    There is no perfect game and this is all in hindsight but people are over thinking things

    Cash gen and points per $$$ is king, but if bye friendly options pop up then you why not grab prior as a discount.
    Sure they might get selected but their form was probably great too so you probably made cash and got discounted points.

    TLDR
    All the above has taught me is don't be soo attached or locked into your team
    Boozecluez
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    Post by Boozecluez Tue May 30, 2023 2:28 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    People need to be careful of trusting their gut

    After a few weeks, the gut feel was that Lachlan Miller was a fantasy gun who has tackle breaks for breakfast and had a lot of way to score points.


    True but some do their job after a great run and your gut says to quit while you are ahead
    Without going into it I traded Miller round 9 for Horsburgh, HTF round 10 for Bula
    When you are struggling to even pick them in your 13 or you have to loop them on your bench then its time to get off
    They don't have years of pedigree or stats to back them up so can you trust they maintain their current run
    As long as you spend their money well then you can't regret it

    Unless their name is Averillo (last year) haha
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    Post by Boozecluez Tue May 30, 2023 2:37 pm

    Fuck, still havent decided what I want for lunch
    filthridden
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    Post by filthridden Tue May 30, 2023 2:42 pm

    Keeping Alamoti because I have eight trades left and if I don't have to spend them on centres then I won't be.
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Tue May 30, 2023 2:45 pm

    Contrastinghobby wrote:

    True but some do their job after a great run and your gut says to quit while you are ahead
    Without going into it I traded Miller round 9 for Horsburgh, HTF round 10 for Bula
    When you are struggling to even pick them in your 13 or you have to loop them on your bench then its time to get off
    They don't have years of pedigree or stats to back them up so can you trust they maintain their current run
    As long as you spend their money well then you can't regret it

    Unless their name is Averillo (last year) haha

    Yeah I hung on to Miller too long.... and HTF is still hanging around Shocked
    I think I might get too stuck on getting the bye round numbers
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Tue May 30, 2023 2:46 pm

    Contrastinghobby wrote:Fuck, still havent decided what I want for lunch

    I recommend a porg ceasar sandwich
    Boozecluez
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    Post by Boozecluez Tue May 30, 2023 2:49 pm

    Chewie wrote:

    I recommend a porg ceasar sandwich

    Sounds great, I assume the sandwich is toast like the franchise now?

    Haha but hopefully they fix it sometime soon, they need a milford/maloney/cartwright run
    GreenSchist
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    Post by GreenSchist Tue May 30, 2023 2:54 pm

    Contrastinghobby wrote:I guess we all have different takes on it, I will probably play the opposite but thats me

    Whats the point of having the 'best' players if you lock down that spot at close to full price and when opportunities come along you don't/can't grab them

    Other than your captain then your team should be fairly fluid until the big byes I believe

    Some of my best gains were in weeks like rd9 (storm bye) when people were struggling to field even a full team
    I used the prior round to refresh my team and set it up with a strong 17 and made huge inroads.
    I could have cruised through it too but you have to take calculated risks sometimes too

    Or when JDB,Horsburgh,Lemuelu,Johnson were all cheap and on the up I pulled the trigger then.
    Or the same approach with any fallen gun, how long do you wait to bring them in?

    You see all too often "should have or can't grab them when they were 200k cheaper 4 rounds ago" as they then bring them in round 13 for the bye.
    Or the player you were looking at has a low game the round prior so you get cold feet.

    There is no perfect game and this is all in hindsight but people are over thinking things

    Cash gen and points per $$$ is king, but if bye friendly options pop up then you why not grab prior as a discount.
    Sure they might get selected but their form was probably great too so you probably made cash and got discounted points.

    TLDR
    All the above has taught me is don't be soo attached or locked into your team

    Well said.
    Only player I'm currently attached to is Cleary as my go to Captain option. Could add JDB to this list as well but only cause I bought him at top dollar so would prefer to hold him as a keeper (if his role changes though, I wont be afraid to flip him).

    In order to field a full (or near full) 13 for the bye rounds, you need to flick some players from your squad, simply due to numbers. In those situations, we as managers need to weigh up whether the extra points or potential trades are more valuable. If you can deal with the reduced trades, I will always lean for the extra points (worth noting that post bye round performances will also be considered for any trade out/in).
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    Post by Boozecluez Tue May 30, 2023 2:55 pm

    This is the halfway mark and still 3 months to go, plenty of time for things to change

    What hasn’t changed is the Sydney meetup so would be cool to see more come along

    Went with homemade pea and ham soup with a bagel
    The tolman of the food world

    Haha enough dribble from me
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Tue May 30, 2023 3:07 pm

    Contrastinghobby wrote:This is the halfway mark and still 3 months to go, plenty of time for things to change

    What hasn’t changed is the Sydney meetup so would be cool to see more come along

    Went with homemade pea and ham soup with a bagel
    The tolman of the food world

    Haha enough dribble from me

    I'm hoping we get a few more first timers attend

    As much fun as it is hanging with you degenerates every year I think a few more members dipping their toes in the water can only improve the quality
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    Post by Guest Tue May 30, 2023 3:08 pm

    Do we get any more trades later in the year? I sort of have a trading problem
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Tue May 30, 2023 3:08 pm

    MF wrote:Do we get any more trades later in the year? I sort of have a trading problem

    8 in R20
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    Post by Guest Tue May 30, 2023 3:10 pm

    Camo123 wrote:

    8 in R20

    Thank you kind sir
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    Post by Fortitude Tue May 30, 2023 3:33 pm

    Genuinely have no idea what to do this weekend.

    Might just turn my phone off and hide behind the couch.

      Current date/time is Fri May 17, 2024 5:56 pm