NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 16 - Does anyone have a case of Fig Jam? Looking to buy

If I looked elsewhere I’d probably spend less money and get Hammer, Perham or Sloan. Could be convinced I guess if someone had a compelling argument to get them over Walsh

i think the big plus in buying walsh is when a-rey gets injured he will get a nice bump in km's & will be gk (or is staggs the 2nd gk)

mattnz wrote:
Perham has the base you want. 25 when his team gets steamrolled. Hamiso inflated by 3 tries

Yeah good point. The question is what version of the Bulldogs are we most likely to get moving forward. Last weeks win would be a big confidence boost.

Then again it is the Bulldogs

Well and truly stuck in the weeds on trade thoughts this week.

My current plan is Cheese + Ford -> Robson + Preston.

Advantage of this is not having to worry about hooker with Smith, Boyd et al being duds so far. However I'm not super keen on trading Ford, still think he has decent money to make and trading him leaves me without mid cover.

So the other option I'm considering is Butcher + Cheese to gun HOK (could afford anyone) + Preston. This leaves better squad balance long term with Ford still covering mid, but a weaker 17 this week as I'd have to loop AKP and I Katoa hope for something playable, with Doorey also moving up to 16. I'm also not that keen on selling Butcher as I think he'll come good, but I have an overabundance of EDG options (Katoa, Loiero, Hopgod, Carty, Doorey, Preston) and he seems the one least likely to make money immediately.

There's also the option of Smith + Ford to Tohu + Preston. That leaves me with MID cover but no HOK cover, with Boyd at hooker and I Katoa filling in at HLF this week.

So to summarise (assuming Smith out and Preston in is a constant in all 3 scenarios):

a) Ford to Robson, leaving no MID cover and Doorey/I Katoa in the loop
b) E Butcher to gun HOK. Could afford Cook/Grant and still have a bit of bank left, but a weaker 17 this week with Doorey playing and I Katoa/AKP in the loop.
c) Ford to Tohu, leaving no HOK cover, Boyd at HOK, I Katoa filling in at HLF, and Doorey/AKP in the loop.

It's a bit of a mess whatever way I do it. I'm starting to think B makes the most sense when I put it like that - can afford a premium gun, maintain solid cover when Ford is back next week, and still have ~100-200k to play with depending on who I get out of Robson/Grant/Cook.

Chewie wrote:

Not going with the J'maine man?

Nah I think he gets a bit of a rest this week. Still probably good for 65 minutes 50+ points

White Lightning wrote:when the internet began i said to my mate it will destroy the world & it has...AI is just an extention of the internet & will finish the world off

the solution...the makers of AI & their supporters grab a gub, machete, baseball bat hunt them down & kill them

Hey mate, I understand your concern about the internet and AI, but let's not jump to violence as a solution, eh? The world ain't getting destroyed just yet, and AI is actually pretty useful in a lot of ways - like predicting footy scores and improving player performance.

Sure, there are risks to consider, but instead of grabbing a gub or a machete, maybe we could focus on regulating AI development and ensuring it's used ethically. And if you're worried about the internet, well, we're already living in a digital age, so let's learn how to use it responsibly and make the most of its benefits.

Let's keep the focus on footy and leave the violence to the field, eh? Cheers.

mattnz wrote:
This is desperate for a win, best players on the field week. Next week Matterson is back and can get a rest

I think he gets a bit of a rest but still plays 65mins and scores 60ish points.

What, after only two games and both in wins where he scored 11 and then 31, has given so many of you confidence in IKatoa??

As far as I can see the guys scoring is going to be all over the place and there is every chance his norm is closer to the 11 than the 31. And what happens to his scoring when they suffer a loss?

I would not be approaching him with any confidence from a trade in and also play in my 17 this round perspective.

Yes I get he's young and confidence will grow in the role, but that's no guarantee for fantasy output

mattnz wrote:
This is desperate for a win, best players on the field week. Next week Matterson is back and can get a rest

I realise this is what you want to happen but two weeks in a row its been fairly obvious that a buggered hopgood late in the game isnt whats best for the team

Probably same as last week tho, around 70 mins with a break during second half

Playing 80 again also wouldnt surprise me tho

I've made the call to trade out EButch.

Bye next week and in round 13. Has some tough games coming up and seems to be a little out of whack in his position in defence. Probably doesn't see any price rises until at least R8.

With edge having a lot of value around, and other players like Tohu gaining in price / may soon to be out of reach.

It'll probably come and bite me in the ass.

Hodgson > Preston
EButcher > Tohu

my tv broke wrote:

I realise this is what you want to happen but two weeks in a row its been fairly obvious that a buggered hopgood late in the game isnt whats best for the team

Probably same as last week tho, around 70 mins with a break during second half

Are you bringing in Walsh mate? Or watching another week first/staying clear?

I can’t get him this week.

Rabbits21 wrote:
Are you bringing in Walsh mate? Or watching another week first/staying clear?

I can’t get him this week.

I will probably have to miss him. At the moment no suitable outs/downgrades

Need a better half in a week or twos time

Leaning Miller and hoping for endless TBs

The Mrs has started a job recently where she regularly finishes at 8.30pm. Right in the middle of Nrl games. So of the two options should I

A - Call her HR or...

B - Continue discouraging her about the merits of the role  ?

Only eminent relief is the fact she is going to China for two months from next Friday.    

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:If I looked elsewhere I’d probably spend less money and get Hammer, Perham or Sloan. Could be convinced I guess if someone had a compelling argument to get them over Walsh

I like MS's fullback tier list:

Tier 1
Teddy, Turbo, Papy, Latrell, Ponga

Tier 2
Edwards, Brimson, Gutho, Walsh

Tier 3
Drinkwater, Kennedy

Tier 4
Laurie, CNK, Savage

Tier 5
Hammer, Miller, Ramsay, Sloan, Perham

I think Walsh could be a good WFB3, other options outside the FBs are Kiraz and Garick
If you don't have any other fires to tend to, I think Walsh is a good shout

Just some curious stats I was wondering about with regards to a selection of topical fullbacks - I was curious as to their fantasy averages when they score tries vs when they don't;

The sample is generally the number of games they have played in the 2022-2023 seasons, with the following additions.
* HTF: I included three 2021 games as they seemed to be appropriate, boosts his sample size (and not doped by Vlandy's ball)
* Turbo: I included six 2020 games, again to improve a representative sample (and also seemed appropriate to his 2022-2023 stats).

	Sample	Try Rate	NoTry Ave	Try Ave	Try vs NoTry diff	Cost	Priced @	Proj Try rate	Projection
Tedesco	25	40%	43.8	66.5	22.7	$        707	50.5	40%	52.9
Miller	6	33%	37.0	63.0	26.0	$        451	32.2	35%	46.1
Turbo	14	43%	32.4	53.2	20.8	$        631	45.1	50%	42.8
HTF	10	50%	28.6	50.0	21.4	$        452	32.3	50%	39.3
Walsh	22	11%	32.9	42.8	9.9	$        545	38.9	50%	37.9

With Walsh I have removed his GK from his averages (-4.2 pts per game, and dropped his average kick metres points down from 3 to 2), I have boosted his try scoring rate from 11% to a high-rate of 50%.

I'm using Tedesco as a sort of benchmark.
Obviously take the projections with a grain of salt.

The things it maybe illustrates for me;
HTF is still undervalued, but possibly by only 5 points - his real value is that he's a decent floor average with a good ceiling available at CTR (pretty much what we knew).

Walsh needs significant improvement in Fantasy stats to offer value. It's possible, but always an increased risk when you're aiming for that to be the reason for improved scoring (rather than a change of role or minutes).

Millers sample is too small to take too much away, except his style of play (slapsies) suits fantasy points - if he can add a decent try rate... who knows...?

Anyway, a somewhat interesting curiousity more than anything...

Additional note: I removed any significantly injury affected outliers from the samples... (i.e. no 10 minute games that drop averages etc)

Ramitinmyhaaas wrote:Scans cleared Tyson Frizell of serious injury or fracture, was the hope considering favourable mechanism (foot roll in vs out). Will miss this week but otherwise sounding like it won’t keep him out for too long

Delicious

Revraiser wrote:The Mrs has started a job recently where she regularly finishes at 8.30pm. Right in the middle of Nrl games. So of the two options should I

A - Call her HR or...

B - Continue discouraging her about the merits of the role  ?

Only eminent relief is the fact she is going to China for two months from next Friday.    

You’ve got a woman and she works? Stop gloating!