NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 13 - Reece Walsh, Future Immortal

Jumping Marlin wrote:On Uto and Talau watch today (unless one of them becomes BMM or Ponga beforehand).

Just been checking out Uto and have realised I bought him with 2021 goggles on.  Based on his back end to 2021, I thought he was going to be a gun.  What surprised me in the stats is that he has not had an attacking stat since 2021, and that he averages only 1 tackle bust per game since 2021 finished.  

He battled injuries last year too, so I guess we'll find out if he's another case of 2021 anomalies.

My benchmarks for him are 43 (projected) and <30 (trade).

Moanaman wrote:Could someone please explain to this old man how to calculate the price value of a player, based on their scores in future rounds, on MTB's website?

As an example I want to know how much Hodgson is going to lose this week

A rough guide is:
Take their score this round, subtract the BE, multiply by $1,000 to give you approximately how much their value increases / decreases from the round.

Moanaman wrote:Could someone please explain to this old man how to calculate the price value of a player, based on their scores in future rounds, on MTB's website?

As an example I want to know how much Hodgson is going to lose this week

Hey mate,

Below the stats for Hodgson, you can enter the predicted score and a 3 week price average is predicted.  See here.



Note: The calc is based on whatever magic number is coded in, and may not match exactly say Milchcows for example.  [I think in MTBs code, he has a magic number for break-evens that doesn't always match the magic number he uses in the predicted price section.  So they can sometimes look a little inconsistent]

Remember the Eels balked at a Morgan Harper swap because Brown was on double the money and they would have to foot the difference.

Now the Roosters have managed to get him.

The Roosters were also begging for salary cap relief for Angus Crichton, not sure if they got it.

Would basically love to know how this is structured.

Jumping Marlin wrote:


Hey mate,

Below the stats for Hodgson, you can enter the predicted score and a 3 week price average is predicted.  See here.



Note: The calc is based on whatever magic number is coded in, and may not match exactly say Milchcows for example.  [I think in MTBs code, he has a magic number for break-evens that doesn't always match the magic number he uses in the predicted price section.  So they can sometimes look a little inconsistent]

This is all true, except the main reason it won't be exact is that the magic number isn't known. The magic number depends on the amount of points scored by all players for the round, which isn't known until....after the round. Even the BE's on coach are only estimates. The magic number (and hence price changes) is always an estimate.

More info from Milchcow here (post 4):

https://www.nrlfantasyfanatics.com/t128-fantasy-resources

mattnz wrote:If Bird gets good minutes, without a huge score today, I should have just enough cash to go:
Butcher > Bird
May > Walsh

Would mean I miss the HTF single digit game without a try and leave me with a much better balanced team of.

Mahoney
Harris Carrigan Cotter
Hopgood Preston
Douehi Trindall
Bird Alamoti
Ponga Walsh Miller

Tapine NAS Carty Boyd
Warbrick Katoa HSS Talau

Not specifically advice for you - more general but your team is a good example. I think both those trades are great but if you are relying on Trindall, Carty in your 17 then be careful blowing all your bank this week/the following week.

Both will be trade outs soon (1-3 rounds) and most cows we look at now won’t be a good trade in option in 1-2 weeks so you are banking on that showing up fast. Luckily you have good cover so you can buy any position but some won’t have that luxury (ie Smith/Boyd teams have 3 weeks to get a new hooker).

You specifically would have a well balanced squad (1-17) but 18-21 in bye weeks or injuries (like NAS) doesn’t look fun. Just something to consider when making big upgrades as you are.

Also the whole play them on the bench for 1 week with a negative BE will be hard cause all the money they’ve made is tied up so getting a respectable 17 to not lose ground may be more difficult with bench Carty/Trindall

Fuck Ford, Mark Holden would have scored better

Cap'n Ranta wrote:

Not specifically advice for you - more general but your team is a good example. I think both those trades are great but if you are relying on Trindall, Carty in your 17 then be careful blowing all your bank this week/the following week.

Both will be trade outs soon (1-3 rounds) and most cows we look at now won’t be a good trade in option in 1-2 weeks so you are banking on that showing up fast. Luckily you have good cover so you can buy any position but some won’t have that luxury (ie Smith/Boyd teams have 3 weeks to get a new hooker).

You specifically would have a well balanced squad (1-17) but 18-21 in bye weeks or injuries (like NAS) doesn’t look fun. Just something to consider when making big upgrades as you are.

Trindall and Carty will have enough value to move them onto guys like BMM and Ford without needing a cash injection for decent scoring.

Won't have any bye round players until R5, when I will have 1 Titan out. Will have traded Trindall by R6, (hopefully NAS back by then) and probably traded Talau by R7, leaving me just with Douehi to cover.

No Worries wrote:Fuck Ford, Mark Holden would have scored better

and Frankie J.

All that torque from Welshy and he didn't even have Ford in the garage.

does ford still have a chance to play next week providing he passes the protocols or because he failed his hia has to sit out rd. 3. cheers.

Jumping Marlin wrote:


Hey mate,

Below the stats for Hodgson, you can enter the predicted score and a 3 week price average is predicted.  See here.



Note: The calc is based on whatever magic number is coded in, and may not match exactly say Milchcows for example.  [I think in MTBs code, he has a magic number for break-evens that doesn't always match the magic number he uses in the predicted price section.  So they can sometimes look a little inconsistent]

Thanks JM! If only I had scrolled down.....

White Lightning wrote:does ford still have a chance to play next week providing he passes the protocols or because he failed his hia has to sit out rd. 3. cheers.

I could be wrong but I'm fairly sure he should be alright to play given they have a 7 day turnaround, if it was any shorter it would be much less likely.

What’s cookin’ fanatics? missed the games yesterday due to work commitments (commuted to working on the monster hangover I have today)
I did, unfortunately, catch the first one where all three of my participants left the field injured. It’s always good to see single digits in your 17 and 30s and 40s in your emergencies.What’s the go with Preston? Looks like he got th role but for how long?

Also, never used mediafire before, but see if this works, it's an excel price predictor created by Milchcow (I think). It's like the one on footystats but you can project for longer and change the week to week scores, basically just customise everything more.

https://www.mediafire.com/file/7hdf9ybc41h448c/Price_predictor_%25281%2529.xlsx/file

White Lightning wrote:my namesake teague what a player a real get stuck/no fear in type of player...teague is a rare surname so i'm going to delve into his family history to see if he's related to me

I was going to ask about this.

if anyone owns jmk he's been suspended for 2 weeks for a hip drop v the raiders

White Lightning wrote:if anyone owns jmk he's been suspended for 2 weeks for a hip drop v the raiders

Is Teague the back up?