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    NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 104 - What do numbers even mean anymore

    Lchy
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    Post by Lchy Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:03 pm

    Rabbits21 wrote:
    Mate I think Dolphins will be on the back foot quite a lot.

    They signed Niu too meaning Hammer could go back to wing?

    Hammer priced at 26 would need to avg 35 to be worthwhile I don’t think he can do that

    If you run HTF you're not picking him for 35 every week, you're banking on him going on a run of good scores at some point to build cash, which he can definitely do even in a bottom side. I'm not even saying I'll pick him (I don't have a first draft yet), I just reckon he's a far better choice than Averillo at that price point

    Averillo averaged 30 at fullback last year despite scoring 7 tries in his 10 games, he scored a double twice for scores of 56 and 47. He's also not very good at rugby league football. If we're comparing the two I'm taking the really fast guy who got picked in Origin aged 20 every day of the week
    Bethany_B
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    Post by Bethany_B Sun Jan 08, 2023 1:09 pm

    Lchy wrote:

    If you run HTF you're not picking him for 35 every week, you're banking on him going on a run of good scores at some point to build cash, which he can definitely do even in a bottom side. I'm not even saying I'll pick him (I don't have a first draft yet), I just reckon he's a far better choice than Averillo at that price point

    Averillo averaged 30 at fullback last year despite scoring 7 tries in his 10 games, he scored a double twice for scores of 56 and 47. He's also not very good at rugby league football. If we're comparing the two I'm taking the really fast guy who got picked in Origin aged 20 every day of the week

    If you want a run of good scores to build cash, then Coates is much better than either Hammer or Avo, he's got way more attacking upside and his team has a very good early draw, so the likelihood of him getting a big score is a bit better.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Sun Jan 08, 2023 2:44 pm


    What makes Coates better this year than last year?
    Bethany_B
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    Post by Bethany_B Sun Jan 08, 2023 3:19 pm

    Milchcow wrote:
    What makes Coates better this year than last year?

    Nothing, he's priced similarly and the rationale for picking him is the same - if you think the Storm will start hot and he will benefit from it. His average over the course of a season isn't great but he is capable of going on a run of big scores in which he makes cash and then you sell him. That is why I started with him last year, though in my case I sold him early to get Taylan May.

    I don't currently have him in my team (my back 5 is I. Thompson, Alamoti, AKP, CNK and Teddy) but I prefer him over Averillo or Hammer who seem to have just as low a floor but a lower ceiling. Ideally I wouldn't have any of those guys in my team, the only one of the 350-400k backs that I want is CNK because he has shown that he can at least maintain a decent floor at fullback.
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    Post by easytiger Sun Jan 08, 2023 5:00 pm

    Bethany_B wrote:

    Nothing, he's priced similarly and the rationale for picking him is the same - if you think the Storm will start hot and he will benefit from it. His average over the course of a season isn't great but he is capable of going on a run of big scores in which he makes cash and then you sell him. That is why I started with him last year, though in my case I sold him early to get Taylan May.

    I don't currently have him in my team (my back 5 is I. Thompson, Alamoti, AKP, CNK and Teddy) but I prefer him over Averillo or Hammer who seem to have just as low a floor but a lower ceiling. Ideally I wouldn't have any of those guys in my team, the only one of the 350-400k backs that I want is CNK because he has shown that he can at least maintain a decent floor at fullback.

    Coates made it to $494k on the back of 7 tries in two consecutive games.
    I wouldn't be paying $400k to gamble that happens again (in the hope of maybe making $100k).

    Like you say, ideally you probably want none of those three as far as I can tell with an initial look
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Sun Jan 08, 2023 5:10 pm

    Lchy wrote:

    By that logic you'd just stump up the extra 2k and run HTF who's got an infinitely higher ceiling

    Problem with HTF is that his floor is down in the basement
    Snatchpato
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    Post by Snatchpato Sun Jan 08, 2023 5:19 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    Problem with HTF is that his floor is down in the basement
    If he's being picked for a string of high scores to build cash, which is likely with his decent ceiling, then does it really matter if his baseline is dumpster? He'll be tucked away in EMG for a lot of the year no?
    Lchy
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    Post by Lchy Sun Jan 08, 2023 5:38 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    Problem with HTF is that his floor is down in the basement

    Definitely way too volatile to be a regular scorer. I've got him mentally noted as a handy 18-21 loophole candidate, I'd imagine with a bye every week looping will be on the cards just about every round since it'll be rare(r) to field 21 green dots
    The Dolphin Conspiracies
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    Post by The Dolphin Conspiracies Sun Jan 08, 2023 8:38 pm

    Lchy wrote:

    Definitely way too volatile to be a regular scorer. I've got him mentally noted as a handy 18-21 loophole candidate, I'd imagine with a bye every week looping will be on the cards just about every round since it'll be rare(r) to field 21 green dots

    Hayze Perham is cheaper and if starting at FB as he is training will be a way more consistent scorer
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Sun Jan 08, 2023 9:50 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    Problem with HTF is that his floor is down in the basement

    As is Averillo's. But on Bethany's point the major tick for either HTF or Averillo over Coates (or Perham) is that for Fantasy purposes they're centres.
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:18 pm

    Lchy wrote:

    If you run HTF you're not picking him for 35 every week, you're banking on him going on a run of good scores at some point to build cash, which he can definitely do even in a bottom side. I'm not even saying I'll pick him (I don't have a first draft yet), I just reckon he's a far better choice than Averillo at that price point

    Averillo averaged 30 at fullback last year despite scoring 7 tries in his 10 games, he scored a double twice for scores of 56 and 47. He's also not very good at rugby league football. If we're comparing the two I'm taking the really fast guy who got picked in Origin aged 20 every day of the week
    You could be right. I think the Dogs will be a bit better this year though and Avo will have some more attacking opportunities. Avo will only get better too.

    Just looking at the Dolphins draw first 8 rounds or so it isn’t too bad. It’s a hard decision I don’t think I can have both.
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:20 pm

    Bethany_B wrote:

    Nothing, he's priced similarly and the rationale for picking him is the same - if you think the Storm will start hot and he will benefit from it. His average over the course of a season isn't great but he is capable of going on a run of big scores in which he makes cash and then you sell him. That is why I started with him last year, though in my case I sold him early to get Taylan May.

    I don't currently have him in my team (my back 5 is I. Thompson, Alamoti, AKP, CNK and Teddy) but I prefer him over Averillo or Hammer who seem to have just as low a floor but a lower ceiling. Ideally I wouldn't have any of those guys in my team, the only one of the 350-400k backs that I want is CNK because he has shown that he can at least maintain a decent floor at fullback.

    Not worried about the Warriors draw Beth? They have a horror draw first 8 rounds. CNK in his limited games last year at FB too didn’t score well and for mine he’s going to a worse team too.
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    Post by Rabbits21 Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:21 pm

    Snatchpato wrote:
    If he's being picked for a string of high scores to build cash, which is likely with his decent ceiling, then does it really matter if his baseline is dumpster? He'll be tucked away in EMG for a lot of the year no?
    I think people that get Hammer are probs gonna play him at centre.
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:31 pm

    Bethany_B wrote:

    Nothing, he's priced similarly and the rationale for picking him is the same - if you think the Storm will start hot and he will benefit from it. His average over the course of a season isn't great but he is capable of going on a run of big scores in which he makes cash and then you sell him. That is why I started with him last year, though in my case I sold him early to get Taylan May.

    I don't currently have him in my team (my back 5 is I. Thompson, Alamoti, AKP, CNK and Teddy) but I prefer him over Averillo or Hammer who seem to have just as low a floor but a lower ceiling. Ideally I wouldn't have any of those guys in my team, the only one of the 350-400k backs that I want is CNK because he has shown that he can at least maintain a decent floor at fullback.

    So at the moment you have a Rabbitohs winger with no job security and Souths playing the four strongest teams in the league in the first five rounds, an 18-year-old Bulldogs centre who probably won't be playing, an untried Titans winger who loses his spot when Kelly is back from suspension, a solid enough fullback for one of the worst teams in the competition with a nasty draw, and Teddy.
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:46 pm

    rhinoceroo wrote:

    So at the moment you have a Rabbitohs winger with no job security and Souths playing the four strongest teams in the league in the first five rounds, an 18-year-old Bulldogs centre who probably won't be playing, an untried Titans winger who loses his spot when Kelly is back from suspension, a solid enough fullback for one of the worst teams in the competition with a nasty draw, and Teddy.

    Just remember though mate despite Souths tough draw we still can score lots of points so the draw doesn’t really matter. Against Penrith he will probs have a low game and Rorters will be out for revenge. Thompson can go well though against Sharks, Manly and Storm who I feel both have very vulnerable defence out wide. Thompson avg was 45 last year in NSW Cup he scored 20 tries in 16 games. He was also favoured to play over Milne in the round 25 game last year and in our finals games but he got a groin injury. JD has put a lot of time into Thompson and really likes him he’s front runner for that wing spot. He’s a big strong runner of the football too and a good finisher. Priced 21-22 if he avg low 30’s which is doable thats enough for me to justify getting him. I remember telling people stay away from Jaxson Paulo last year. Well let me look at trials first but currently I feel Izaak Thompson if fit is worth the punt and will be DPP. I feel much more comfortable as of now in Thompson over Alamoti and that Khan Titans whatever he’s called!

    Hhmmm I see you share similar thoughts with me on CNK too. Warriors have Knights, Rorters, Cowboys, Dogs, Sharks, Knights, Cowboys, Storm, Penrith and Rorters to start with.
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    Post by Bazoots Sun Jan 08, 2023 10:52 pm

    Well thats annoying. Was all excited to settle in and update my spreadsheet of players and prices and so forth only to discover that the NRL have in their infinite wisdom decided this year to sort players alphabetically using their last names instead of first names. 1st world problems and rant over. As you all were
    Bethany_B
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    Post by Bethany_B Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:36 pm

    rhinoceroo wrote:

    So at the moment you have a Rabbitohs winger with no job security and Souths playing the four strongest teams in the league in the first five rounds, an 18-year-old Bulldogs centre who probably won't be playing, an untried Titans winger who loses his spot when Kelly is back from suspension, a solid enough fullback for one of the worst teams in the competition with a nasty draw, and Teddy.

    All of these cheapies are in my team on the assumption that they will play. If they are not named in round 1 then I will obviously redo my team to replace them, but I am assuming the following

    * Either Alamoti or Skelton play at centre - or otherwise get Perham for WFB if the rumours are true

    * AKP starts on the wing in round one - I posted a few days ago as to why I think this is likely

    * Thompson gets the Souths wing spot

    Of course these may not all happen but there will be other cheapies emerging and my basic strategy is to have four cheapies plus a gun in my five starting outside back spots, with the majority of my money going to the forwards and halves (in my current draft I have Grant, Carrigan, Cheese, Barnett, Cleary, Munster and Hastings as gun or subgun players). In fact running with Teddy goes against my gut feeling that he may start slow, I would ideally have an even more loaded forward pack because there's not many cheapies there and lots in CTR and WFB, but Teddy is there as a defensive move because he has two good matchups in the first two rounds and could get out of reach extremely quickly
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Mon Jan 09, 2023 12:23 am

    Snatchpato wrote:
    If he's being picked for a string of high scores to build cash, which is likely with his decent ceiling, then does it really matter if his baseline is dumpster? He'll be tucked away in EMG for a lot of the year no?

    Nobody gets stashed in emergencies all year any more. Byes every week mean you are going to have to play
    You'll still need cheap players in your 21, and HTF (or Averillo, or whoever) will have to get a spot, but this year you'll probably have to play them more often that you'd like.
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    Post by Milchcow Mon Jan 09, 2023 12:24 am

    Bazoots wrote:Well thats annoying. Was all excited to settle in and update my spreadsheet of players and prices and so forth only to discover that the NRL have in their infinite wisdom decided this year to sort players alphabetically using their last names instead of first names. 1st world problems and rant over. As you all were

    So Null Null is now listed as Null Null?
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Mon Jan 09, 2023 6:33 am

    Bethany_B wrote:

    All of these cheapies are in my team on the assumption that they will play. If they are not named in round 1 then I will obviously redo my team to replace them, but I am assuming the following

    * Either Alamoti or Skelton play at centre - or otherwise get Perham for WFB if the rumours are true

    * AKP starts on the wing in round one - I posted a few days ago as to why I think this is likely

    * Thompson gets the Souths wing spot

    Of course these may not all happen but there will be other cheapies emerging and my basic strategy is to have four cheapies plus a gun in my five starting outside back spots, with the majority of my money going to the forwards and halves (in my current draft I have Grant, Carrigan, Cheese, Barnett, Cleary, Munster and Hastings as gun or subgun players). In fact running with Teddy goes against my gut feeling that he may start slow, I would ideally have an even more loaded forward pack because there's not many cheapies there and lots in CTR and WFB, but Teddy is there as a defensive move because he has two good matchups in the first two rounds and could get out of reach extremely quickly

    Oh good we get to hear the nonsense about Teddy again after you trade him out 2 weeks in then act surprise when he scores around his career average the rest of the season

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