NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 36 - Battle of Hastings...Jazz vs Cheese

Don't go chasing Talakais, please stick to the Arthars and the Paix that you're used to.

The Dolphin Conspiracies wrote:Just as a way to balance up the hype

Papenhuyzen in his last 5 games has scored 308 points in 378 minutes at a PPM of around 81.5

Papalii has scored 341 points in 376 minutes at a PPM of around 90.7

Talakai has scored 342 points in 400 minutes at a PPM or around 85.5


One of these players was traded out by the noise and the others have almost escaped comment in the forum. I know which two out of the three I would prefer looking backwards at the end of the season

I'm not sure iPap has escaped comment. Some people have him, others that don't targeted Cleary with their up/downgrades. He's probably just too expensive for most at the moment when tradeouts are in the 5/600k area and there are no base-price cows around.

Please forgive me, but here's hopefully a take on Talakai to end all takes... (it's certainly long enough)


Talakai - I hate that he's going so well but you have to set that stuff aside - It is what it is.
So, trying to take the emotive elements out, here's what I hope is an objective look at Talakai.

His fantasy form is partly him, partly a reflection of how well the Sharks pack & spine are playing (and their ability to give him quality ball in good positions), and partly a reflection of the defensive structures he's been up against.

He's played four games at Centre so far this season;

Knights 75 - A mid-table team defensively. Talakai was a bit of an ambush for them and caught them out.

Tigers 45 - Although people consistently write the Tigers off as shit (particularly defensively), they are currently 6th for leaking the least fantasy points. They contained Talakai pretty well.

Storm 68 - is currently the 2nd best defensive team in the comp (fantasy-wise) and easily has leaked the least points at Centre - just 26.6 per game. That drops to 23 if you take out Talakai. A performance to sit up and take notice.

Sea Eagles 107 - Destroyed Morgan Harper - but really it was the Sharks destroying Manly's defensive patterns and being able to put Talakai in a one-on-one situation with a poor defender in Harper (and with a strong wind behind them). The second half showed what a competitive team could do to limit his effectiveness.

Looking at the road ahead;
Broncos - are the second-worst at leaking fantasy points. Third-worst at leaking points to Centres - a team with somewhat flakey defensive structures. Collectively they could struggle to contain the sharks.

Warriors - Fourth worst at leaking fantasy points (although a bit boosted by the Storms routing last week), below average at leaking points to Centre - as with the Broncos, a team capable of falling apart.

Raiders - Actually been one of the stronger teams defensively (in terms of fantasy points - fifth), but below average at leaking points at Centre. Ricky is unhappy, and they seem in a state of flux. Which Raiders turn up?

Titans - A mid-table team defensively and currently better than most in conceding points at Centre. But huge questions about the Titans as a whole and capable of being dominated and leaking heavy points.

Raiders aside, only the Warriors (last week vs Storm) have faced a top-tier team (being Storm, Panthers, Sharks) - so in essence, the defensive stats of the Broncos & Titans are likely to end up worse than their current records.

I've also looked at Talakai's stats at Centre across the Vlandysball period (2020-) - unfortunately, just a 7 match sample size, but you can start to build a picture.

MG
His average MG for the previous two years was 162, this year boosting to 208. That affirms a guy who is keen on being offensively involved.

TCK
His tackles and missed tackles are pretty consistent across both periods - not a great or busy defender, but then you want him spending his energy in attack. A net of about 6 fantasy points. Additionally, he averages about half a TO a game.

OL
Offloads - so long as the Sharks continue to put him in one-on-one offensive situations, he'll continue to get an easy OFH each game.

DMs
Errors & Penalties- most games, he'll get one each.

TB
Tackle-busts - A huge step up this year. From nearly 2TB's per game to averaging 9.5 this year. Of course, this is dragged up by that massive 17TB effort against the Knights. A season-low of 5 against the Tigers, 8 against the Storm & Sea Eagles - it would be fair to expect him to average 6+ over the next four weeks.
Those groups give a base of about 42 points.

ATTACK
Tries, Try Assists, Line Breaks & Assists - I'm going to group these for brevity. Talakai averaged 0.3 per game across each category over the last two years.
This year he's averaging 1.0+ in each category.

The Sharks this year are a vastly improved cohesive unit, with multiple attacking points.
Think about Hynes, Moylan, Kennedy, and Brailey, strong attacking edges in Nikora & Wilton with Ramien & Talakai outside of them.
Back that up with a strong middle, and it's easy to see why opposition defences are going to struggle to get numbers to key attacking points like Ramien and Talakai.

Where the edge defence is fairly sound, Talakai gets the same amount of ball as Ramien - about 18-22 touches (Tigers, Storm).
But, when there is a defensive vulnerability, the Sharks will hit it more (Talakai got 50% more ball than Ramien against the Knights & Sea Eagles). They are recognising and adapting to where weaknesses are. But even when there isn't a vulnerability, he will continue to get a good base of attacking opportunity.

The midpoint between '20-'21 attacking stats & this years (i.e. a downgrade) is worth 15 points a game.
So far this year, it's been worth 23.5 points per game.

So it seems a fair range for projecting scoring over the next 4 weeks could be in the range of 55-65.
Sadly, I think the Broncos, Raiders, Warriors and Titans arguably offer a greater attacking opportunity to the Sharks than the Knights, Tigers, Storm and Sea Eagles - certainly not worse.


Is there money to be made trading in a Centre priced at 49?

Historically speaking, paying $676k for a centre is a tremendously poor option.

But using a magic number of 13.8 (it's fluctuated between 13.7-13.9 the last 4 weeks), we get this;

45 (floor) Projection: week 1 gain $66k, peaks in 2 weeks at a $88k gain - you've made some cash, but TBH it was a bit of a flop.

55 (low) Projection: week 1 gain:  $78k, peaks in 3 weeks at a $135k gain - and you have a potential keeper

65 (high) Projection: week 1 gain:  $89k, 4 weeks nets a $202k gain - and you have a potential keeper


As I see it, the biggest risk now in the Talakai scenario is if Fitzgibbon has a change of heart and decides to use Talakai as bench impact with reduced minutes. But given how well things are currently running, I would imagine he would be loathe to make any major changes.

All things being equal, and Talakai retains his spot, it's hard to see him being an out and out flop and it's a trade that  could offer a significant boost to your bank which may prove timely with only 5 rounds left until the first bye.
The price you pay though is that while he may provide a cash gain, he doesn't necessarily provide much points value at his price. Add to that who would you have to trade to get him in and what damage does it do to your 17th man and it's not a clear-cut decision.

It's certainly not a trade for someone with a low-risk appetite, and even then, as with all projections and trades it shouldn't be considered in isolation.

There is a utility value in every trade.
Does Talakai ultimately make more than a lower price-point option like Jackson Hastings for example (which may allow for a stronger 17th man)?
Does Talakai's potential cash upside outweigh a Jazz Tevaga trade who likely makes money and will provide valuable points in the first bye?

TLDR; To be honest, I'd really prefer that everything added up to Talakai being a flop and maybe he is in the LT.
But this one comes down to how much damage you're prepared to do to your team to get a quick cash grab for mine.

Thoughts in response are probably best directed here: (no one wants a repeat of the last few weeks)
Talakai thread

mattnz wrote:
You disagree? Name a CTR you have seen play better in the last 20 years.

GI, Gasnier, Gidley, Lyon, JMorris, Gagai (schooling him once doesnt overwrite this),Joey Manu even, just to name a few.

All of the above had insane impact on their teams results over many many seasons, not just 4 games as a human wrecking ball.

I am all for people putting forward alternative opinions but this is a crazy claim

Actually still not convinced you are getting off on all this nonsense and don't believe it at all yourself and looking for a bite.

Annoyed at myself for taking the bait now

If TMM looks decent tonight I'll be very keen to bring him in even though he doesn't play Rd13. Another WFB would give me a heap more flexibility for moving DPPs around pretty much every position.

SoylentGreen wrote:If TMM looks decent tonight I'll be very keen to bring him in even though he doesn't play Rd13. Another WFB would give me a heap more flexibility for moving DPPs around pretty much every position.

Yes if goes well again I will change my opinion on him. Right now I think last week was an outlier and he'll average 30pts a game

I brought Ipap in for Arrow a couple of weeks ago...I'm quite happy

Why did Starling only play 63mins on the weekend (Sorry if already covered)

Just tossing up him or Lolo for Burton, but not sure which to go.

Probs should go Starling as already doing Randell to Hastings and if go Lolo have no HOK cover if Cook is a late out, but concerned about the minute drop off after he was playing 80 the previous two weeks

Aardvark wrote:I brought Ipap in for Arrow a couple of weeks ago...I'm quite happy

Yes - I sold Nanai for him a couple of weeks ago. Very happy.

ShadowSabre wrote:Why did Starling only play 63mins on the weekend (Sorry if already covered)

Just tossing up him or Lolo for Burton, but not sure which to go.

Probs should go Starling as already doing Randell to Hastings and if go Lolo have no HOK cover if Cook is a late out, but concerned about the minute drop off after he was playing 80 the previous two weeks

HIA at the end of the game. Pretty innocuous

Morning.......

TU another cup of coffee
TU a cup of tea

Loomer wrote:Don't go chasing Talakais, please stick to the Arthars and the Paix that you're used to.

Fucking Outstanding!!!!

Boozecluez wrote:Morning.......

TU another cup of coffee
TU a cup of tea

Chamomile (and don't read the last five pages)

Loomer wrote:Don't go chasing Talakais, please stick to the Arthars and the Paix that you're used to.

I know that you're gonna have it your way or nothing at all

But I think you're moving too fast

Walters owners - Kevy said Billy being used to take the early sting out of the game. Paix will stay on the park once he comes on, all going well.

Aardvark wrote:

Chamomile (and don't read the last five pages)

Too late, have the little one listening to TLC as well (Talakai lovers club)

Thanks, Chamomile is a great choice.
The Tolman of the tea world, a great settler

Looking forward to tonights game, Broncos will be a tough match as they always play well against us

my tv broke wrote:Walters owners - Kevy said Billy being used to take the early sting out of the game. Paix will stay on the park once he comes on, all going well.

Would love if he can just make 20 so he doesn't lose too much this week.