HomeGarethEllisismyDad wrote:Thank you all, exactly the advice I was requiring,
Gonna hurt to downgrade some of my faves but I need to to get minimum 17 players that will score well
BTW, your dad was a great footy player
NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
Milchcow- Moderator
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by Milchcow Mon Feb 21, 2022 11:23 am
BTW, your dad was a great footy player
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by GarethEllisismyDad Mon Feb 21, 2022 11:44 am
The greatest, but unfortunately not my real old man
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by Chucky Mon Feb 21, 2022 11:57 am
Best tip I can give.GarethEllisismyDad wrote:Thank you all, exactly the advice I was requiring,
Gonna hurt to downgrade some of my faves but I need to to get minimum 17 players that will score well
Don’t pick your faves, unless they are good at fantasy.
Chewie
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by Chewie Mon Feb 21, 2022 12:06 pm
Milchcow wrote:
Small sample, but he is one of the few players to receive a discount for playing few games last year, so that is a plus.
Also, he will be playing with Brimson, not Taylor in the halves, so the assumption is he will get more kicking metres. Will be one of those least affected by the nerf compared to last years scores.
He did get a run in the team when the Titans were winning games though, and the one loss he played in saw him drop 20 points on his average. So you probably want to believe the Titans will do OK this year to have a bit of confidence in picking him.
In many ways picking Sexton is similar to the decision to pick Nicho Hynes or not.
Hynes averaged well last year playing fullback for the minor premiers. Now he'll be playing halfback for a mid table team. He may well maintain/beat last years average. But if he does it is going to be with different stats to what he got last year. Sharks scored 300 less points than Storm, so there is going to be less attacking stats on offer, even if he gets a greater share of them
Both Hynes and Sexton not looking to shabby in the All Stars/Trial games.
Milchcow- Moderator
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by Milchcow Mon Feb 21, 2022 12:24 pm
Chewie wrote:
Both Hynes and Sexton not looking to shabby in the All Stars/Trial games.
Problem is I think back to guys like Croft and Drinkwater who looked great in limited appearances and trial games but never kicked on when they got the full time job.
When Croft first got a regular starting gig, all signs pointed to him being a gun. His limited games as a starter were all great, and he killed it in the World Club Challenge that year.
I'll probably still start with at least one of Hynes/Sexton but will do so warily.
Hynes smells most like a trap to me, but FOMO might lead to me starting with him anyway
my tv broke- Fanatics Immortal
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by my tv broke Mon Feb 21, 2022 1:04 pm
Milchcow wrote:I'll probably still start with at least one of Hynes/Sexton but will do so warily.
same, but both seem to be priced appropriately to me. The main upside for both is that they (likely) do all the kicking. I doubt either player will be leading their team into the top 4 (i'm making some generalised assumptions that the best scoring halves avging 55+ usually play for top sides ie a lot of attacking points.. cleary.. dce.. hughes/munster.. moses.. etc)
Last edited by my tv broke on Mon Feb 21, 2022 1:08 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by Honey Badger Mon Feb 21, 2022 1:05 pm
Milchcow wrote:
Problem is I think back to guys like Croft and Drinkwater who looked great in limited appearances and trial games but never kicked on when they got the full time job.
When Croft first got a regular starting gig, all signs pointed to him being a gun. His limited games as a starter were all great, and he killed it in the World Club Challenge that year.
I'll probably still start with at least one of Hynes/Sexton but will do so warily.
Hynes smells most like a trap to me, but FOMO might lead to me starting with him anyway
Croft and Drinkwater were never really dominant halves whereas Hynes and Sexton will be the dominate kickers in their teams.
Hynes is a definite lock for me. Sexton I wasn't as keen on but looks like he is just a natural fantasy scorer. Will see how he goes next to Brimson in the next trial
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by The Bludger#2 Mon Feb 21, 2022 1:55 pm
The problem is, if I want Sexton, I'll have to forego either Hynes or Burton, both of whom are similar dominant kicking halves, but also have the handy DPP that makes then just a little more enticing to me.Honey Badger wrote:
Croft and Drinkwater were never really dominant halves whereas Hynes and Sexton will be the dominate kickers in their teams.
Hynes is a definite lock for me. Sexton I wasn't as keen on but looks like he is just a natural fantasy scorer. Will see how he goes next to Brimson in the next trial
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by ShadowSabre Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:00 pm
Anyone know how close Marsters will go to a starting gig at the Titans? Proven scorer before and at 338k surely a better option than some of the unproven Ctr names being thrown around if he can sneak into the starting team after a proper preseason with them
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by Camo123 Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:01 pm
Fuimaono facing 5-7 week suspension according to 9 for tackle on Dunster
Could be a decent cheapie with McGuire and Fuimaono suspended for 5 rounds
Could be a decent cheapie with McGuire and Fuimaono suspended for 5 rounds
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by robelgordo Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:07 pm
my tv broke wrote:
Only game I watched was the Broncos and I got irrationally annoyed.
I ended up watching the 18 min kayo mini and the only clear takeaway was that Shaun Lane absolutely shredded the right side defence in the 1st half. Then presumably he hit the showers. Other than showing Shaun Lane is a first grade standard footy player not sure there’s much else to take away from it.
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by The Bludger#2 Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:10 pm
Who's next up for Dragons?Camo123 wrote:Fuimaono facing 5-7 week suspension according to 9 for tackle on Dunster
Could be a decent cheapie with McGuire and Fuimaono suspended for 5 rounds
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by robelgordo Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:12 pm
The Bludger#2 wrote:
Who's next up for Dragons?
Probably Gos lol
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by L-Jimmy Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:12 pm
Camo123 wrote:Fuimaono facing 5-7 week suspension according to 9 for tackle on Dunster
Could be a decent cheapie with McGuire and Fuimaono suspended for 5 rounds
Could be, but lots of potentials could mean lots of chopping and changing. Lets see...bolded the ones likely to start
Bird, Alvaro, Ford, Molo, Woods, Kerr, Lawrie, jdB, Sims, Sua, Burns, Goosie.
So Bird becomes a better CTR shout perhaps? Ford at 439 might look alright - seems like he can play.
But Sims/Sua/JdB/Bird all seem like backrowers, so not real gains from Fui's absence there.
Props? Woods, Molo, Kerr, Lawrie - take your pick of the 400 somethings.
In general, can't see anyone averaging enough to make 150k guaranteed in 5 rounds.
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by robelgordo Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:15 pm
L-Jimmy wrote:
Could be, but lots of potentials could mean lots of chopping and changing. Lets see...bolded the ones likely to start
Bird, Alvaro, Ford, Molo, Woods, Kerr, Lawrie, jdB, Sims, Sua, Burns, Goosie.
So Bird becomes a better CTR shout perhaps? Ford at 439 might look alright - seems like he can play.
But Sims/Sua/JdB/Bird all seem like backrowers, so not real gains from Fui's absence there.
Props? Woods, Molo, Kerr, Lawrie - take your pick of the 400 somethings.
In general, can't see anyone averaging enough to make 150k guaranteed in 5 rounds.
Dragons are like Raiders - too many forwards. Except they are all a level down from their Raiders counterparts.
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by Chewie Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:18 pm
Milchcow wrote:
Problem is I think back to guys like Croft and Drinkwater who looked great in limited appearances and trial games but never kicked on when they got the full time job.
When Croft first got a regular starting gig, all signs pointed to him being a gun. His limited games as a starter were all great, and he killed it in the World Club Challenge that year.
I'll probably still start with at least one of Hynes/Sexton but will do so warily.
Hynes smells most like a trap to me, but FOMO might lead to me starting with him anyway
my tv broke wrote:
same, but both seem to be priced appropriately to me. The main upside for both is that they (likely) do all the kicking. I doubt either player will be leading their team into the top 4 (i'm making some generalised assumptions that the best scoring halves avging 55+ usually play for top sides ie a lot of attacking points.. cleary.. dce.. hughes/munster.. moses.. etc)
Yeah, there's no guarantee for either player to improve significantly on last years performance.
Nicho having the DPP has the potential to be a top 5 WFB in fantasy, he just feels like the better pick to me.
Sexton, on the other hand, may end up being a subgun, sitting around that 50-55point avg.
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by Rico_the_munter Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:20 pm
I just got off the phone to my half sister Trina and had to hear her squawk her team off.
Shes from the shire.
Her 3rd husband Tommo works at the local RSL in the milk capital as a cook.
He said schneider been coming in everyday on heavy diet of barramundi, heaps of the boys firing because its that kakadu barra, long story short ricky is impressed with schneider.
This is her team
HOK-H Grant
FRF-C McInnes, B Smith, K Hetherington
2ND-B Fermor, J Curran
HLF-T Amone, T Sexton
CTR-M Burton, H Perham
WFB-R Papenhyzen, K Ponga, N Hynes
RES1-K Lawton, A Fifita, B Walters, A Davey
RES2-E Blacker, J Howarth, T Koula, Schneider
I told her shes dreaming if she wants to feild a full 17 for round 1.
Stupid bird.
Shes from the shire.
Her 3rd husband Tommo works at the local RSL in the milk capital as a cook.
He said schneider been coming in everyday on heavy diet of barramundi, heaps of the boys firing because its that kakadu barra, long story short ricky is impressed with schneider.
This is her team
HOK-H Grant
FRF-C McInnes, B Smith, K Hetherington
2ND-B Fermor, J Curran
HLF-T Amone, T Sexton
CTR-M Burton, H Perham
WFB-R Papenhyzen, K Ponga, N Hynes
RES1-K Lawton, A Fifita, B Walters, A Davey
RES2-E Blacker, J Howarth, T Koula, Schneider
I told her shes dreaming if she wants to feild a full 17 for round 1.
Stupid bird.
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by Camo123 Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:22 pm
Dunster out for season after injuring ACL, MCL and PCL
https://www.parraeels.com.au/news/2022/02/21/injury-update-dunster-ruled-out-for-2022/
https://www.parraeels.com.au/news/2022/02/21/injury-update-dunster-ruled-out-for-2022/
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by robelgordo Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:30 pm
Camo123 wrote:Dunster out for season after injuring ACL, MCL and PCL
https://www.parraeels.com.au/news/2022/02/21/injury-update-dunster-ruled-out-for-2022/
That’s pretty hectic, poor guy.
I really struggle to detect hip drop tackles, when I watched just thought it was unlucky rather than dirty. A blind spot in my footy watching.
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 2 - pareto weighted moving average
by Ponga Yeo the Mann Mon Feb 21, 2022 2:34 pm
Camo123 wrote:Dunster out for season after injuring ACL, MCL and PCL
https://www.parraeels.com.au/news/2022/02/21/injury-update-dunster-ruled-out-for-2022/
I feel his pain! 3 ACL ruptures in pre-season is not a good start to the year
Can someone sell me on cotter? Are we optimistic based on anything or just mids being tough?
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