NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 89 - Time to start pre season planning

easytiger wrote:

I agree.
Given his dominance in 2020 and the potential for even more involvement this year there was only really two options IMO:
1/ Start with him

2/ Don't start, but that means when do you trade him in?
It's a bit of a waste of a trade to grab him in rounds 5-10? as it just increases the cost vs points he delivers (given you'd normally expect him to miss a couple of games across the Bye period).
That would leave grabbing him in Round 19/20 for just 6 or 7 rounds to see out the season.
It turns out that was the best option, but on the face of what we saw in 2020, it looked likely that 6 or 7 rounds of Tedesco vs 22 or 23 rounds of him may have added up to quite a disadvantage.

It was a bad result, but not a bad decision.
Me missing Turbo was a bad result & a bad decision by comparison.  

Teddy has been my bugbear both seasons. Last year I saw his potential and captained him only for him to flop. I doubled down, thinking he'd eventually come good, but he kept losing ground. Going forward, I'm not even going to be tempted unless he's underpriced (below 700k). I bought him this year as a gun, which he was for the first 2 or even 4 matches. But then he lost an almost inconceivable amount of value - because he's a loose / glass cannon. I reckon it was a poor decision to buy Teddy over Tohu when Tohu had a track record of being Mr Steady, which is what I wanted from my non-laddering starters.

My other contenders for worst decisions were trading LCroker for Leniu in Rd 2 - just too impatient to trade out someone I thought had ladder potential - which cost me maybe 250k upside plus the points that came with it. Or getting DEdwards during the bye rounds - he was unlikely to be a ladder or a gun, so only gave me the temporary upside of having an extra man on the paddock in Rd 13.

Trading in Leniu in round 2 also was one of my biggest fuckups.

wolfking wrote:Trading in Leniu in round 2 also was one of my biggest fuckups.

Agreed.

Tbf though, that one's a lot easier with hindsight. At the time, he'd played 38 minutes for 41. Think that was a lot more minutes than any of us expected and you couldn't know that those would end up being his highest mins for the season. if He'd continued getting 35-40 mins would have been a good buy.

mrbrownstone wrote:

Agreed.

Tbf though, that one's a lot easier with hindsight. At the time, he'd played 38 minutes for 41. Think that was a lot more minutes than any of us expected and you couldn't know that those would end up being his highest mins for the season. if He'd continued getting 35-40 mins would have been a good buy.

To be fair I think there was a HIA which inflated his minutes so that should have probably come into play but you're right, hindsight is always a wonderful thing. Panthers were lucky with HIA's the whole early season too which didn't help. He looked good that game though so still couldn't blame us I think.

Rabbits21 wrote:Well 14 green dots for me, possibly less come Saturday...

Red dots:

Ipap
Murray
Moses
Brailey
Manu 
Macca 
Suaali

I don’t think there is any chance of Ipap or Murray playing.

My rank is 1200. I hope I can hold onto a top 1500 spot bu that might be hard from here.

Who plays if someone in the Souths 1-17 does a hammy on the captains run?

I know it's an extremely unlikely hypothethical, but:

If I trade out Murray then I can afford guys like Crichton/Young/Hughes (who all play before the 24 hour cut for Souths) and also Fog
If I don't trade out Murray I'm probably looking at T'oo/Papy/Pearce/Milf etc.?

But if Murray is any chance of playing I going with the second group.

robelgordo wrote:


Who plays if someone in the Souths 1-17 does a hammy on the captains run?

I know it's an extremely unlikely hypothethical, but:

If I trade out Murray then I can afford guys like Crichton/Young/Hughes (who all play before the 24 hour cut for Souths) and also Fog
If I don't trade out Murray I'm probably looking at T'oo/Papy/Pearce/Milf etc.?

But if Murray is any chance of playing I going with the second group.

That was my thinking with IPap vs Manu.  IPap I get get Jackson or Young, Manu it's To'o (who was my first choice anyway) but yeah I have enough players but if IPap ends up playing and scores well which is a strong chance, it will feel like a total wasted opportunity.

Saying all that, I think a few things going against the team is probably the only way they'd play.

mrbrownstone wrote:

Agreed.

Tbf though, that one's a lot easier with hindsight. At the time, he'd played 38 minutes for 41. Think that was a lot more minutes than any of us expected and you couldn't know that those would end up being his highest mins for the season. if He'd continued getting 35-40 mins would have been a good buy.

If I can make 1 bet for next year, its that most people will have Leniu in their NPRs for early 2022 drafts because this will be the year he kicks on.

Milchcow wrote:

If I can make 1 bet for next year, its that most people will have Leniu in their NPRs for early 2022 drafts because this will be the year he kicks on.

Until Yeo or JFH aren't hanging around I won't be picking any other Panthers middle forward. They soak up so many minutes there aren't many left to go around

Milchcow wrote:

If I can make 1 bet for next year, its that most people will have Leniu in their NPRs for early 2022 drafts because this will be the year he kicks on.

Yeah, I'm hoping I don't fall into that trap again.

wolfking wrote:

Yeah, I'm hoping I don't fall into that trap again.

I think he has all the talent to be a gun at some point, but still only 20, the Panthers has an insane amount of middle depth, and as MS said JFH and Yeo take up a lot of minutes between them.

Would only get him again if he found his way into a starting spot ahead of Leota, which seems unlikely.

mrbrownstone wrote:

I think he has all the talent to be a gun at some point, but still only 20, the Panthers has an insane amount of middle depth, and as MS said JFH and Yeo take up a lot of minutes between them.

Would only get him again if he found his way into a starting spot ahead of Leota, which seems unlikely.

That one game he started in the bye round he still couldn't crack 30 points. Still played shit minutes.

There are going to be a lot of cheapies next year set for a decent role. Just off the top of my head.

- Ryan Papenhuyzen: should be sub 500K easy!
- Jayden Campbell: Word is Brimmo going back to 6 so Campbell can be long term 1.
- CNK: Should be pretty cheap and capable of 45+ scores
- Tyrell Sloan: If Dragons FB next year. Some mediocre scores with tries but cheap enough for the punt
- Heilum Luki: If he can get a 2RF spot, another year in the gym and hopefully a better year for cows should be worth it. 
- Luke Metcalf: If he can ever lockdown a spot somewhere in the spine he will be fantasy gold
- Tesi Niu/TC Robati/Selwyn Cobbo: all looking like great youngsters and all cheap enough to start with next year. 
- Xavier Coates: Insert Melbourne Storm = More tries and better player. 

Probably missing a whole bunch of other youngsters or blokes who have lost a lot of money this year.

Feel free to add below

StormTrooper96 wrote:There are going to be a lot of cheapies next year set for a decent role. Just off the top of my head.

- Ryan Papenhuyzen: should be sub 500K easy!

Based on the pricing system from this year, his current average of 46 would see him priced at over $600k (with 1 game left to boost/lower his average)

He has played 10+ games so no discount in that regard. A few low score injury/bench games, but he also has that 124 keeping his average up.

Going to be cheaper than guys like Trbo/Teddy but won't be bargain basement

Next year's most popular backline...

Cleary, Hynes
Burton, Lomax
Papenhuyzen, Turbo, Campbell

And a whole lot of cheapies in the forwards...

Hard to forward plan too much... suggestions from Brock/Kennedy that things changing next year. More trades for sure, and wouldn't be surprised to see squad sizes upped to 23 (if Fanhunb can cope with the coding)

If Euan Aitken stays in the 2nd row but is available in CTR, he'll be popular.

Tohu coming back probably spells bad news for his fantasy prospects though

rhinoceroo wrote:Next year's most popular backline...

Cleary, Hynes
Burton, Lomax
Papenhuyzen, Turbo, Campbell

And a whole lot of cheapies in the forwards...

Hard to forward plan too much... suggestions from Brock/Kennedy that things changing next year. More trades for sure, and wouldn't be surprised to see squad sizes upped to 23 (if Fanhunb can cope with the coding)

Going to hard to start with both Cleary and Turbo you'd think.

I probably haven't learned my lesson, but paying for a $1m outside back to start the season will be difficult. Surely an average of 1.6 tries, 1.8 TAs and 1.7 line breaks per game isn't sustainable long-term? (Narrator: It was...)

Will Hynes in the halves actually be good value? I guess it depends who he's paired with in terms of KM etc.

Good Storm fullback moving into the halves at another club. Worry he could be like starting with Drinkwater last year.

mrbrownstone wrote:

Going to hard to start with both Cleary and Turbo you'd think.

I probably haven't learned my lesson, but paying for a $1m outside back to start the season will be difficult. Surely an average of 1.6 tries, 1.8 TAs and 1.7 line breaks per game isn't sustainable long-term? (Narrator: It was...)

Yeah, we'll have to see what the cap is but hiding behind the sofa and hoping for two quiet Turbo games in a row is likely to be the call... maybe.

mrbrownstone wrote:Will Hynes in the halves actually be good value? I guess it depends who he's paired with in terms of KM etc.

Good Storm fullback moving into the halves at another club. Worry he could be like starting with Drinkwater last year.

Drinky's problem has always been his demerits, and Hynes is actually a decent defender (better than Drinkwater anyway). Didn't realise Hynes already has a 48 average though - thought it would be much lower with the bench games, so not as much value as I expected.