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    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 78 - I can see Cleary now Mitch Rein has gone

    easytiger
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    Post by easytiger Wed Jul 21, 2021 5:21 pm

    Last week I mentioned that Fifita was up against the most miserly Edge defence in the NRL (in terms of leaking Fantasy points).

    This week he's up against the leakiest Edge defence.

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 78 - I can see Cleary now Mitch Rein has gone - Page 4 2021-e10

    Really, there's only a 9 point differential between the best and worst (given most Edge points are fairly base-stat driven), so make of it what you will, but it does suggest there may be increased opportunity.

    I guess it's also whether you think the new Halfback will help get him the ball or not.
    danseels1985
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    Post by danseels1985 Wed Jul 21, 2021 5:32 pm

    Think I’m bringing in Mahoney for Fog this week. Leaves two trades so if I have no more injuries I could probably cash out Hynes then upgrade someone like Moses/ARey to Cleary. I’m preparing for it not to happen though lol
    Khany
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    Post by Khany Wed Jul 21, 2021 5:34 pm

    Read an article that said the Knights haven't given up on the idea Ponga is their long term 5/8, even though pearce/Clifford are there next year.
    Jele
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    Post by Jele Wed Jul 21, 2021 6:05 pm

    VERTiiGO
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    Post by VERTiiGO Wed Jul 21, 2021 6:21 pm

    Idk who to ply this week on my bench, ponga or burton
    White Lightning
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    Post by White Lightning Wed Jul 21, 2021 6:26 pm

    @VERTiiGO wrote:Idk who to ply this week on my bench, ponga or burton

    Ponga easy
    filthridden
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    Post by filthridden Wed Jul 21, 2021 6:41 pm

    Jennings out for 4-6 weeks.

    Could do worse for cashout than Ieremia. Basement price. Might only score 20 each week but did I mention basement price?

    In other news Hiku is apparently ahead of schedule for the Warriors and is now due to return as early as next week.
    Honeysett
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    Post by Honeysett Wed Jul 21, 2021 6:43 pm

    So captain choices..

    "Turbo or Fifita? Fuck it I can't decide.. I'll just go the highest average.."

    Fifita: 71.1
    Turbo: 71.1

    ... Fuck.
    filthridden
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    Post by filthridden Wed Jul 21, 2021 6:45 pm

    @easytiger wrote:Last week I mentioned that Fifita was up against the most miserly Edge defence in the NRL (in terms of leaking Fantasy points).

    This week he's up against the leakiest Edge defence.

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 78 - I can see Cleary now Mitch Rein has gone - Page 4 2021-e10

    Really, there's only a 9 point differential between the best and worst (given most Edge points are fairly base-stat driven), so make of it what you will, but it does suggest there may be increased opportunity.

    I guess it's also whether you think the new Halfback will help get him the ball or not.

    This just makes me want to captain Ipap even more, though their average of 49.5 is probably inflated by his own score against them.

    Jack Bird defending Fifita doesn't bode well either though.
    KiwiOilBoiler
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    Post by KiwiOilBoiler Wed Jul 21, 2021 6:53 pm

    Given that i'm stuckish with HLFs of Hynes, SJ and Avo, is it that order? (I know the correct answer is none...but....)
    SJ slightly lower (recent) floor, but better average.
    Avo higher ceiling, but worse recent history overall.

    Playing each other, last, so can't get a free looksee either.
    Erin Moleman
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    Post by Erin Moleman Wed Jul 21, 2021 7:11 pm

    @filthridden wrote:Jennings out for 4-6 weeks.

    Could do worse for cashout than Ieremia. Basement price. Might only score 20 each week but did I mention basement price?

    In other news Hiku is apparently ahead of schedule for the Warriors and is now due to return as early as next week.

    Any chance hynes plays wing or centre ?
    ynot
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    Post by ynot Wed Jul 21, 2021 7:17 pm

    @easytiger wrote:

    Love your work ynot - it's always very interesting and you have to be a shoo-in for new poster of the year!

    I did have a few thoughts on this - please forgive my musings (and they're certainly not in any way intended as a critique).

    If there's any relationship it looks clear that it's with the more attacking positions - Halfback, Fullback, Wings, Centres etc

    That leads me to suspect that margin of victory is maybe not as important as simply the points (or in fact tries) scored by a team.
    If for instance Melbourne win two games; one by 40 - 0, the other by 60 - 20, I'd think on average the games that they score 60 points in would typically result in a highly level of Fantasy points (despite the same margin).

    It also lends to the likelihood that the backs are most positively affected by scoring points (positions 1-7 have scored 76% of the tries attributed to starting 13 players this year and about 81% of TA's), then add in that they'd  also dominate the associated LB's, TB's and LBA's directly related to those tries plus typically GK's too - and it's probably a fairly direct relationship between a team scoring more match points in a game leading to more fantasy points for those try scoring positions.

    In terms of the query someone raised about whether it indicates correlation or causation, I think it's arguable that it's both.
    Attacking players scoring fantasy points for attacking plays is a direct result of them scoring those points - those attacking plays generate fantasy points that lead to actual points (and add to margin or total points scored). They are literally interlinked.

    I wonder if there would be a similar but slightly stronger relationship between total team points (or even more-so team tries) and fantasy point averages with backline roles - it seems to make sense on an intuitive level.

    I guess the big problem is that even if you can predict more attacking points to a particular team (match-ups), it's much more complex to predict statistically how those points will be distributed in a way that indicates a certain player is more of a value pick over a certain other backline player - e.g. Wing A is going to dominate 50% more than their price point over the next 6 weeks (in a team expected to score points), whereas Wing B is only going to average around their price point generated across the rest of the season.

    Probably the most obvious way is with a highly variable scorer that is down on value due to a run of tough oppostion, but heading into a much more favourable draw, while playing for a team that is likely to take advantage of that favourable draw (a good flat track bully team like Souths springs to mind).

    I wonder if at present the best predictors of good value opportunities are fans that follow most matches and have a good understanding of a certain teams attacking structures vs upcoming match-ups defensive structures/weaknesses

    Hey mate, this is awesome - fantastic points.

    Totally agree re: total points scored, I think that's probably more correlated than margin. Let me take a look tomorrow.

    The best way to understand how good a team is in a season is to look at their point differential - that will closer be to a teams true performance than their wins / losses. This is why I was looking at margin game to game.

    But from a fantasy perspective I'm guess losing 50 - 30 is very different to 20 - 0 in terms of fantasy point output for the losing team, so margin probably doesn't matter so much.

    I think you are right about positional matchups too, much more interesting to figure out Winger A vs Winger B than just distribute a predicted amount of tries across the back line. It would be cool to look at the matchups on the different edges, because ultimately they don't effect each other much.

    This has kind of exploded my brain a little bit, need a dataset that labels players as left and right edge and then we could look at some good findings. I believe I could figure this out from some data I have floating around.

    Might be time to build some machine learning models and get predictive.

    mintotheimmortal
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    Post by mintotheimmortal Wed Jul 21, 2021 7:19 pm

    What would you guys do in my situation when I have somehow managed to have 9 trades remaining and no obvious trades still this week

    Brailey
    Ipap haas lolo
    Fifita chn
    Dce SJ
    averillo bird
    Walsh turbo ponga

    Teddy hynes AFB Crichton
    Papenhuyzen Gamble Verills Roberts

    As long as hynes hits his BE I can straight swap him to cleary if I don’t trade this week.
    Mahoney and Murray and potentially Hunt are 3 guys I still kinda want as well as Cleary.

    504k itb too so would it be best to hold and hope cleary is back next week or is there something else you all can suggest
    Khany
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    Post by Khany Wed Jul 21, 2021 7:23 pm

    I can't recall which melb ctr  Jennings was outside of ,?
    Erin Moleman
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    Post by Erin Moleman Wed Jul 21, 2021 7:39 pm

    @Khany wrote:I can't recall which melb ctr  Jennings was outside of ,?

    Smith.. fox and olam are together
    Liverpool_Bulldog
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Wed Jul 21, 2021 7:42 pm

    @Erin Moleman wrote:

    Smith.. fox and olam are together
    Hopefully everything goes their way
    Khany
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    Post by Khany Wed Jul 21, 2021 7:42 pm

    @Erin Moleman wrote:

    Smith.. fox and olam are together

    Thanks, if Hynes was going to play ctr, Smith has played plenty of wing

    Prob not going to happen, just going to have a exit strategy in place with Hynes in case Belaamy pulls any surprises


    Last edited by Khany on Wed Jul 21, 2021 7:55 pm; edited 1 time in total
    michaelz101
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    Post by michaelz101 Wed Jul 21, 2021 7:53 pm

    Panthers sign TPJ for rest of the season. Maybe JFH injury more serious than first thought?!?

    Edit: wifey having a baby taking parental leave
    Jele
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    Post by Jele Wed Jul 21, 2021 8:01 pm

    @mintotheimmortal wrote:What would you guys do in my situation when I have somehow managed to have 9 trades remaining and no obvious trades still this week

    Brailey
    Ipap haas lolo
    Fifita chn
    Dce SJ
    averillo bird
    Walsh turbo ponga

    Teddy hynes AFB Crichton
    Papenhuyzen Gamble Verills Roberts

    As long as hynes hits his BE I can straight swap him to cleary if I don’t trade this week.
    Mahoney and Murray and potentially Hunt are 3 guys I still kinda want as well as Cleary.

    504k itb too so would it be best to hold and hope cleary is back next week or is there something else you all can suggest

    amazing team with 9 trades left and $504k in the bank.  Assume you're playing overall, and don't need to hoard trades for H2H finals?  I'd be upgrading.  You could sell Brailey or SJ or even Papy to, say, Mahoney.  You've got enough trades to use two next week if you need to, to bring Cleary in for Hynes eg by also cashing out Verrills or Roberts or Gamble.  Or even to bring Papy back in down the road if you decide to sell him, once he is back starting at fullback.
    easytiger
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    Post by easytiger Wed Jul 21, 2021 8:02 pm

    @ynot wrote:

    Hey mate, this is awesome - fantastic points.

    Totally agree re: total points scored, I think that's probably more correlated than margin. Let me take a look tomorrow.

    The best way to understand how good a team is in a season is to look at their point differential - that will closer be to a teams true performance than their wins / losses. This is why I was looking at margin game to game.

    But from a fantasy perspective I'm guess losing 50 - 30 is very different to 20 - 0 in terms of fantasy point output for the losing team, so margin probably doesn't matter so much.

    I think you are right about positional matchups too, much more interesting to figure out Winger A vs Winger B than just distribute a predicted amount of tries across the back line. It would be cool to look at the matchups on the different edges, because ultimately they don't effect each other much.

    This has kind of exploded my brain a little bit, need a dataset that labels players as left and right edge and then we could look at some good findings. I believe I could figure this out from some data I have floating around.

    Might be time to build some machine learning models and get predictive.


    Sorry, mate - not meaning to give you more to do.
    I've often thought it might be interesting to see where ML could go with some good data.

    It's always going to be hard to be too predictive, teams completion, tackle efficiency rates and ability to execute can be quite variable week to week (unless your the Storm or Panthers seemingly) - but I can imagine the potential to predict an increased likelihood of a certain player against a certain opposition etc

    I struggle for time (young kids) so tend to fallback to quick and dirty excel, but always have hope that it could be an interesting web app project in the off season.

    The data yourself and MTB have brought forward on player ownerships, and remaining trades etc I think has been fascinating this season and defining brought a new angle to end game strategy - so a huge thanks!

      Current date/time is Wed Dec 08, 2021 1:42 am