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    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 78 - I can see Cleary now Mitch Rein has gone

    No Worries
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    Post by No Worries Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:03 pm

    @WT2K wrote:

    Only if you fold it

    This is one of those occasions when you know you shouldn't google it ................................
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    Post by SoylentGreen Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:07 pm

    @No Worries wrote:

    This is one of those occasions when you know you shouldn't google it ................................


    Yumbo:
    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 78 - I can see Cleary now Mitch Rein has gone - Page 3 Yumbo
    Erin Moleman
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    Post by Erin Moleman Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:12 pm

    @wolfking wrote:Doueihi has an average of 59.7 out of playing 9 games at 5/8 this year.  Not bad.  Only 3 tries too during those 9 games.

    I’d say Mahoney and doueihi are the best value at the moment for the potential
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    Post by wolfking Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:14 pm

    @Erin Moleman wrote:

    I’d say Mahoney and doueihi are the best value at the moment for the potential

    Yeah, he's definitely not a bad option, especially if you can run him in your WFB.
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    Post by Revraiser Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:18 pm

    @WT2K - But what it really looks like

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 78 - I can see Cleary now Mitch Rein has gone - Page 3 Giphy
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    Post by Revraiser Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:22 pm

    @SoylentGreen wrote:


    Yumbo:
    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 78 - I can see Cleary now Mitch Rein has gone - Page 3 Yumbo

    More likely a scruncher.
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    Post by ynot Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:24 pm

    Only issue for Doueihi was his lack of kick metres last week. Averaged close to 300 earlier in the year.

    If that trend continues, when he's up against good teams and the Tigers aren't scoring tries, he's probably looking at 35 points.
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    Post by Moanaman Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:25 pm

    HTF gone for 6 weeks. Appendicitis....i think thats how its spelt
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    Post by toast Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:34 pm

    @Moanaman wrote:HTF gone for 6 weeks. Appendicitis....i think thats how its spelt

    Potentially makes Asi a decent cash out as a WFB/CTR at 281k. Risk is Hampton back next week goes to fullback and Asi drops out. If Asi holds his spot he likely becomes a red dot when Holmes is back rd 23. Cowboys play on Saturday from then on so he could become an okay but not great loop option.
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    Post by filthridden Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:34 pm

    @wolfking wrote:Doueihi has an average of 59.7 out of playing 9 games at 5/8 this year.  Not bad.  Only 3 tries too during those 9 games.

    Keep on eye on kick metres. I bought Doueihi in thinking his kick metres would be consistent with previous 5/8th starts. Barely kicked on the weekend.
    Buyer beware.
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    Post by Khany Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:37 pm

    Squad depth is becoming pretty clear
    SaveTheCheerleader
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    Post by SaveTheCheerleader Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:39 pm

    2 trades left with no Cleary really sucks..
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    Post by TheWeapon Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:42 pm

    @wolfking wrote:Mulvy's advice about getting Cleary back had me thinking of how I can do it.  I was contempt to let him go but I probably can make it happen.  If I wanted to do Moses/Fog to To'o this week it could still work.  6 trades so;

    Moses/Fog - To'o - nets me 44K left.

    Next trade would be Burton to 228K.  I have figured Burtons price at 550K.  Shouldn't drop that much this week but his centres scores aren't that great.  After that trade plus 44K I would have 366K.

    Next trade I'm looking at possibly would be Verrills to a 228K.  This would mean Verrills raising 10K, which should be fine.

    Then Cleary would come in for Hynes but in round 21.  This would mean Hynes maintaining his price though, which is risky.  Although, hopefully Cleary drops a little, but a lot needs to go my way.  Doing all this means I can keep Fog as 17th man and Peach and Laurie as 18th and 19th man.  Would leave 2 trades and hopefully this team;

    Brailey
    Haas Tolo IPap
    Fifita Crichton
    SJ Cleary
    Bird Manu
    To'o Ted Walsh

    AFB CHN Watson Fog

    Peach Laurie 228K 228K

    If it doesn't work, I'd keep Verrills and trade Laurie to cheapie depending on how much I need.  Might get me a bit better depth if the player I trade plays every week.  I've done a few other options, but this looks the best.  other option is Mitchell over To'o for the extra 100K to play with if prices don't fall my way.  Running with 2 basement guys though is risky AF.  Keeping Fog or Moses though is interchangeable with Moses maybe back next week.

    other option would be getting a different 17th man.  Basically trading Fog/Moses instead of Burton but then using the fourth trade of my plan to turn Burton into a Radley or someone more reliable.

    I like this. The only reasons I went Gutho over To'o last round was that Moses was out, and that the strapping on To'o's knee made me nervous given that I don't have many trades left.... Another option would be to get rid of SJ.... I have him and he looks terrible....
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    Post by Mulvy Wed Jul 21, 2021 4:43 pm

    @Camo123 wrote:

    The not captaining trade in is more to protect from late out and allow reverse of trade rather than superstition that they score shit in their first week

    Yep this. And team lists. A couple of years ago I brought in Ryan James and captained him in the game he did his ACL. He was a good price and had been scoring well in the middle. The thing is, if I had been able to reverse trade I would have, because in final team lists he had been moved from middle to edge where he doesn't score as well. Couldn't reverse because captain's lock out.

    This type of last minute role change is obviously far less likely for DCE who will play at 7 as long as he is playing. It's really just in case of the unlikely event that DCE injures himself in the captain's run or warmup and you can't reverse trade. If a team plays first I have no such qualms. Even Fridays are okay because you would have likely heard any news out of the captain's run before Thursday night lock out. I would never captain a trade in that plays on a Sunday. More time for things to go wrong. It's all a very very small risk, but one which can be eliminated if you choose.
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    Post by wolfking Wed Jul 21, 2021 5:05 pm

    @ynot wrote:Only issue for Doueihi was his lack of kick metres last week. Averaged close to 300 earlier in the year.

    If that trend continues, when he's up against good teams and the Tigers aren't scoring tries, he's probably looking at 35 points.

    @filthridden wrote:

    Keep on eye on kick metres. I bought Doueihi in thinking his kick metres would be consistent with previous 5/8th starts. Barely kicked on the weekend.
    Buyer beware.

    Nice pickup. Always going to be a risk with Brooks around I guess.
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    Post by easytiger Wed Jul 21, 2021 5:06 pm

    @ynot wrote:I've been digging into the whole question of "do matchups matter?". I think it's of interest with the season coming to a close which means strength of remaining schedule is becoming more variant, especially with the competition gap. It might also be helpful for H2H players looking to target specific weeks.

    Here are some charts looking at the 2021 season for players playing over 40 minutes, to filter out injuries and small role bench players.

    This looks at the correlation between game margin and total fantasy points scored. Margin being used as a proxy for the difference in how good a team is in a matchup.

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 78 - I can see Cleary now Mitch Rein has gone - Page 3 A4HUmjD

    The R = 0.25 refers to the correlation between the two variables, 0 being no relationship, 1 being a positive relationship.

    This means there is a positive but weak relationship, between individual fantasy points and team margin. i.e. The more points a teams wins by the more fantasy points an individual in that team will score.

    I think this is fairly obvious, because the events that occur when scoring game points also create fantasy points.

    Lets see what happens when we break that down by position:

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 78 - I can see Cleary now Mitch Rein has gone - Page 3 Zw2yNqB

    I think this also makes sense, backs are the most effected by game results (matchups), particularly fullbacks and halfbacks both having moderate positive correlations. Centres to a slightly less extent and Five Eighths even less.

    Forwards on the other hand it doesn't matter so much, I'm guessing because their fantasy points are generated by tackles and run metres, which remain relatively consistent despite opposition.

    What doesn't remain consistent between players is minutes played, so lets look at the previous chart on a points per minute basis:

    NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 78 - I can see Cleary now Mitch Rein has gone - Page 3 YCWNucS

    A slight increased in correlation but nothing major.

    To summarise: trade in backs, particularly halves and fullbacks, who have good matchups and don't trade in those that have tough matchups. Don't worry too much about the matchups for forwards!

    Pretty obvious, but I'll hopefully dig into this a little deeper though out the week and come up with some recommendations.

    Love your work ynot - it's always very interesting and you have to be a shoo-in for new poster of the year!

    I did have a few thoughts on this - please forgive my musings (and they're certainly not in any way intended as a critique).

    If there's any relationship it looks clear that it's with the more attacking positions - Halfback, Fullback, Wings, Centres etc

    That leads me to suspect that margin of victory is maybe not as important as simply the points (or in fact tries) scored by a team.
    If for instance Melbourne win two games; one by 40 - 0, the other by 60 - 20, I'd think on average the games that they score 60 points in would typically result in a highly level of Fantasy points (despite the same margin).

    It also lends to the likelihood that the backs are most positively affected by scoring points (positions 1-7 have scored 76% of the tries attributed to starting 13 players this year and about 81% of TA's), then add in that they'd  also dominate the associated LB's, TB's and LBA's directly related to those tries plus typically GK's too - and it's probably a fairly direct relationship between a team scoring more match points in a game leading to more fantasy points for those try scoring positions.

    In terms of the query someone raised about whether it indicates correlation or causation, I think it's arguable that it's both.
    Attacking players scoring fantasy points for attacking plays is a direct result of them scoring those points - those attacking plays generate fantasy points that lead to actual points (and add to margin or total points scored). They are literally interlinked.

    I wonder if there would be a similar but slightly stronger relationship between total team points (or even more-so team tries) and fantasy point averages with backline roles - it seems to make sense on an intuitive level.

    I guess the big problem is that even if you can predict more attacking points to a particular team (match-ups), it's much more complex to predict statistically how those points will be distributed in a way that indicates a certain player is more of a value pick over a certain other backline player - e.g. Wing A is going to dominate 50% more than their price point over the next 6 weeks (in a team expected to score points), whereas Wing B is only going to average around their price point generated across the rest of the season.

    Probably the most obvious way is with a highly variable scorer that is down on value due to a run of tough oppostion, but heading into a much more favourable draw, while playing for a team that is likely to take advantage of that favourable draw (a good flat track bully team like Souths springs to mind).

    I wonder if at present the best predictors of good value opportunities are fans that follow most matches and have a good understanding of a certain teams attacking structures vs upcoming match-ups defensive structures/weaknesses
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    Post by toast Wed Jul 21, 2021 5:08 pm

    @wolfking wrote:

    Ponga always finds a way to shit himself on the run home.

    Was curious about this so had a look.

    Scores from last 3 games played:
    2018:
    r21 - 53
    r22 - 44
    r23 - 38

    2019:
    r23 - 32
    r24 - 38
    r25 - 6

    2020:
    r17 - 108
    r19 - 41
    r20 - 21

    All 80min games. The 108 looks like an exception with the next highest being 53 then 44. No idea why his scores fall off but there is evidence of it. Has me slightly wary of bringing him in though he remains a target for now.
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    Post by wolfking Wed Jul 21, 2021 5:08 pm

    @TheWeapon wrote:

    I like this. The only reasons I went Gutho over To'o last round was that Moses was out, and that the strapping on To'o's knee made me nervous given that I don't have many trades left.... Another option would be to get rid of SJ.... I have him and he looks terrible....

    Thanks mate. Definitely cutting things fine but could work out okay. I think To'o has had strapping on the knee for a while. Didn't seem to affect him last week though. They have some tough matchups coming up so it could affect his scoring.

    Mitchell is the other as I mentioned cut price option that could bounce back on the run home. That estra 100K could be make or break.

    SJ is an option to trade out, but feels risky with Moses and Fog with no real clear indication on returns and how it will affect them. Seems know Fog could be the better one to ditch over Moses.
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    Post by wolfking Wed Jul 21, 2021 5:09 pm

    @toast wrote:

    Was curious about this so had a look.

    Scores from last 3 games played:
    2018:
    r21 - 53
    r22 - 44
    r23 - 38

    2019:
    r23 - 32
    r24 - 38
    r25 - 6

    2020:
    r17 - 108
    r19 - 41
    r20 - 21

    All 80min games. The 108 looks like an exception with the next highest being 53 then 44. No idea why his scores fall off but there is evidence of it. Has me slightly wary of bringing him in though he remains a target for now.

    I didn't look at stats mate, I just know 2 years in a row he fucked me good. Would have been the last two years looking at those scores. The team were probably out of finals contention the last two weeks perhaps so maybe that had something to do with it.
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    Post by Camo123 Wed Jul 21, 2021 5:18 pm

    @wolfking wrote:

    I didn't look at stats mate, I just know 2 years in a row he fucked me good.  Would have been the last two years looking at those scores.  The team were probably out of finals contention the last two weeks perhaps so maybe that had something to do with it.

    Knights haven’t won a final round game since 2014

    To be fair I think previous 2 years Ponga may have been delaying surgery to off-season so wasn’t at peak fitness but Knights just seem to suck in the final round for some reason

      Current date/time is Fri Oct 22, 2021 8:04 pm