NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 77 - To'o tired to think of a witty title

Any news on Jarohme Hughes?

hang on... I may not have a red dot for l**ping

Chewie wrote:hang on... I may not have a red dot for l**ping

My looping addiction is begging me to use my last trade to get a red dot in

mrbrownstone wrote:

Solid depth that with Brailey, Radley and Wilton all outside the 17!

Minor point, but would you not be better served starting SJ/Reynolds and benching Schuster for his EDG cover, if both are going to be in the 17 anyway?

Ahh yea good spot. I’m kinda not happy about having Wilton and Radley out of the 17 haha

What happened to Ponga?

Got knocked the fuck out by himself

Late in the year but thoughts on jazz as a cut price keeper with Tohu out

Erin Moleman wrote:Late in the year but thoughts on jazz as a cut price keeper with Tohu out

There are worse punts I think. You’d think he may also benefit with Egan being out also

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:

There are worse punts I think. You’d think he may also benefit with Egan being out also

Tohu to jazz and sj to Cleary leaves me $1 short haha

Erin Moleman wrote:

Tohu to jazz and sj to Cleary leaves me $1 short haha

You little beauty

Although hard to see Cleary being named

Chewie wrote:hang on... I may not have a red dot for l**ping

Fantasy giveth and Fantasy taketh away.

lewis9966 wrote:

Chewie wrote:hang on... I may not have a red dot for l**ping

My looping addiction is begging me to use my last trade to get a red dot in

Hardcore. What would Christopher Moltisanti do?

Chewie wrote:hang on... I may not have a red dot for l**ping

Oh Chewie, Chewie, Chewie. You should know better. What have you done?!

Sucks to be your team next week mate. Prepare for absolute carnage and book in a few days of leave next week. You're about to receive the Fantasy god's full wrath.

I've been digging into the whole question of "do matchups matter?". I think it's of interest with the season coming to a close which means strength of remaining schedule is becoming more variant, especially with the competition gap. It might also be helpful for H2H players looking to target specific weeks.

Here are some charts looking at the 2021 season for players playing over 40 minutes, to filter out injuries and small role bench players.

This looks at the correlation between game margin and total fantasy points scored. Margin being used as a proxy for the difference in how good a team is in a matchup.



The R = 0.25 refers to the correlation between the two variables, 0 being no relationship, 1 being a positive relationship.

This means there is a positive but weak relationship, between individual fantasy points and team margin. i.e. The more points a teams wins by the more fantasy points an individual in that team will score.

I think this is fairly obvious, because the events that occur when scoring game points also create fantasy points.

Lets see what happens when we break that down by position:



I think this also makes sense, backs are the most effected by game results (matchups), particularly fullbacks and halfbacks both having moderate positive correlations. Centres to a slightly less extent and Five Eighths even less.

Forwards on the other hand it doesn't matter so much, I'm guessing because their fantasy points are generated by tackles and run metres, which remain relatively consistent despite opposition.

What doesn't remain consistent between players is minutes played, so lets look at the previous chart on a points per minute basis:



A slight increased in correlation but nothing major.

To summarise: trade in backs, particularly halves and fullbacks, who have good matchups and don't trade in those that have tough matchups. Don't worry too much about the matchups for forwards!

Pretty obvious, but I'll hopefully dig into this a little deeper though out the week and come up with some recommendations.

ytsb wrote:

Oh Chewie, Chewie, Chewie. You should know better. What have you done?!

Sucks to be your team next week mate. Prepare for absolute carnage and book in a few days of leave next week. You're about to receive the Fantasy god's full wrath.

I know... 21 green dots at this stage of the game is asking for trouble

Spoiler:

The man is a magician!!

Will be an interesting TLT, something tells me there could be a couple of surprises!

Try celebrations (NFL/Soccer style)... For or Against??

I am all for it. I love seeing the creative things our players are doing, also good for a giggle. I hope it continues on after the fundraising ends.

Dear Santy,
I know it's out of season for you but could you please find it in your heart to ensure that I have more than 16-17 green dots both today and on each and every game day this round.
I'll be very good...honest.
Yours, Aardvark

Daveboy wrote:

I'm going to need it if last week is anything to go by
SJ, Hunt and Ponga combined for a mighty 57, would have expected that from each of them

So what trades are you making this week?