NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 16 - To Milf or Not to Milf, that is the question?

robelgordo wrote:

70-80% of the teams are either dead teams, soon to be dead teams, or very casual players that are looking at last weeks players rather than what might happen this week. I really think looking at overall trade stats is fairly useless in this case. It's not that no-one trusts Wayne, it's that no-one knows who Koala is because he didn't start last week.

The ownership, who's hot, and who's not would be far more interesting if it was the "top tier" - whether that's the top 1k, 5k or 10k in the ranks. Especially a few weeks into the season once ranks are more meaningful.

This is true, although the avatar is really really distracting....

Wouldn't the prominent factor be that Smoothy is 219k ?

Matterson being Matterson. At least the Tigers fans will feel a lot better.

my tv broke wrote:

I think you're spot on there.

I'm narrowed down to Davey or Fui I think. Probably Davey but I'd need to make a second trade to get a mid (either Croker to Alvaro or Gos to Stefano). Both of those make me feel a bit unfortable.

I prefer Davey but I'm going Fui because otherwise I can't afford my second trade. Which is Milf. Decided I'd like to get one player I'm really happy with this week.

If I was in your situation - already with a Milf and looking at a cheaper bench MID - I'd go Davey

Finalized my trades

Lodge to mitchell
Croker to davey

Captain fifita and looping riki and laurie.

Trading figures make you seriously wonder.... Saab, after scoring 7 last week has been traded in by 0.5% of teams

Revraiser wrote:

This is true, although the avatar is really really distracting....

Wouldn't the prominent factor be that Smoothy is 219k ?

Yeah there’d be people going I really want player x (e.g. Cleary because he scored 96) and the cheapest way I can afford that is with the 219k player who is on my bench anyway.

mattnz wrote:Trading figures make you seriously wonder.... Saab, after scoring 7 last week has been traded in by 0.5% of teams

He’s due.

Did you get him in the end? I remember you were talking him up because he’s really fast

robelgordo wrote:

He’s due.

Did you get him in the end? I remember you were talking him up because he’s really fast

No, ended up with Simonsson

WT Winfield wrote:

This post by Rabbits73 convinced me to steer clear of Koala on the community team vote.

That was a good post, however not to be a dick but Rabbit did start with Host. Saying that, I could be the bigger fool as this was the reason I didn't pick Host.

Koala seems like the player that could excel to the next level. He's always played on the edge up until Wayne put him in the middle and I honestly feel even though Wayne loves fucking with the minutes, I can see him working towards keeping that edge role long term and playing big minutes. I'm not entirely sure why Wayne started Host last week though. Perhaps he gaves him his opportunity and wanted Koala in the middle for Melbourne but I do find it strange that Koala was touted to start on the edge yet Host got the gig.

On the edge in the past, Souths haven't really had a damaging player and Koala could be just what we need. I mean, Lowe was never really a good signing and was never a fantasy gun, even at the Cowboys. I loved him back then, but he was solid without being gun level. Siro was finding his feet and had a good crack with a couple of decent scores, but I think with the middles we do have now, a more damaging player on the edge could strengthen Souths points of attack. Yes, they will use him as a decoy and go to Latrell, but they still need options, and I think Koala can bring them that and he will slowly become more involved in Souths attack then what Host was last week.

Chewie wrote:
This is a great read, some interesting observations.
Funny how the ball in play time hasn't increased from last season due to the time teams spend standing under the sticks with the increase in points scores.
Does more tries equal more fantasy point for key playmakers? We did see a lot of tries for the fullbacks despite the wet conditions.
The article also mentions Papalii who had an outstanding perfomance this last game. 200 run meters! Bummer that he is awkwardly priced.

Yeah mate, I thought it had some bloody interesting and well presented stats.

Hard to say based off one round but some of the trends do appear to 'make sense' based on what was expected and also what was observed.

The most interesting observation I found, which was briefly touched on in that article, is that while the amount of things happening in a game isn't drastically different, the overall game time is intentionally being compressed - hence there is limited recovery time and hence all the 2nd half fatigue.

This didn't translate to less stuff happening in the 2nd half because players are gassed and I don't expect it to - because funnily enough, fatigue tends to hit you worse when you are defending....

What I personally think will play out is that we see more of the games 'opening up' towards the back end and my gut feel on some of the effects of this are:

- playmakers will see a big jump in stats
- outside backs might not be scoring as much from sweeping set plays (although, they may score just as well from long range tries or from injecting themselves up the guts)
- workhorses may see less stats
- attacking and particularly offloading forwards might see an increase in opportunities

mattnz wrote:Trading figures make you seriously wonder.... Saab, after scoring 7 last week has been traded in by 0.5% of teams

It could be the cash grabbing second trade for many to get a decent 1st Trade.

Aardvark wrote:

I'm in, already have Lenui and need another Mid this week until Angus gets back(or I play 16).

I would rather go with a starting 2RF playing around 60 mins (and potentially more) than one of the other bench MID options.

It's a gamble but I feel he has the most upside, the other guys are going to remain bench MIDs and one of those in my emergencies is enough

I don't have Leniu, but I can always get him next week if need be. Yes, there's is more risk with Koala, but definitely much more upside long term.

Aardvark wrote:



I have a hunch that Rabbits observations are based on last weeks game, WB obviously expected something more from Host or he wouldn't have dropped him.

Exactly. Wayne obviously is itching for success this year and dropping him and especially Mansour shows the desperation and standard he has this year. I think Koala can deliver what he wants.

Really stuck at the moment please can someone have a look at my team tracker and recommend some trades. I will return the favour aswell

robelgordo wrote:

70-80% of the teams are either dead teams, soon to be dead teams, or very casual players that are looking at last weeks players rather than what might happen this week.

I think you're probably underestimating how many people there are that simply aren't that good at Fantasy (and probably don't really care either way).
A lot will only really be dead when they run out of trades (Round 15 at the earliest) - probably the majority are in various head to head leagues that probably most fanatics wouldn't find that challenging.

Still that does still mean that they add quite a bit of white noise to the overall ownership statistics.
Like you say, ownership for the top 10000 or so would probably be more interesting at this point (and gradually narrowing in as we progress through the season).

a) Croker to Davey + 1k - now or never to get Davey if Croker is the trade out

b) Croker to Alvaro - Leniu, Stefano, Alvaro just feels like too many bench mids

c) Hold Croker & wait for a better cow

Leaning towards C at the moment, any thoughts?

FalconSloth wrote:Really stuck at the moment please can someone have a look at my team tracker and recommend some trades. I will return the favour aswell

Your proposed trades are fine mate, what's the issue? Koala?