NRL Fantasy 2021 Part 16 - To Milf or Not to Milf, that is the question?

Moanaman wrote:



Why good luck? I like that move, especially without Angus this week

Just saying good luck mate is all

Camo123 wrote:I think I'm going to go against all my previous posts and against my tradeaholic ways and just hold Gosiewski hoping Verrills appears next week

Listening to NRL Fantasy Amateurs podcast and interesting point that in preseason you look for cow to make 150k but if you're making a trade you actually want guy you're trading in to make 150k more than guy you're trading out (more relevant for players playing than red dots obviously)

Cheers for sharing that, got me a little sentimental thinking of one of stat godfathers Steve Nicholls
Might go check out the podcast now too
While he wasn't a huge poster here he was massively busy with articles/prospectus but would pop in and throw ideas around
I remember when I had alot more time and used to have some deep stats back and forth with him and found some old messages

Got me thinking what the game used to be like when you had fancy graphs and other info compared to the stripped back game today
Love to see some of the new generation/players taking over and challenging some of these ideas or trying new things
Would be cool to see and part of the reason I enjoy take the time to read out of the box thought here
As long as you have put some time and effort into it then it gets my respect and who knows what you may come across

Back to the trade value I believe years back a few of us on here were probably part if not the reason of 'what a trade is worth'
Maybe it was too much time on hour hands or just trying to use what info and data we had gained/researched but they were fun days.
Unsure if that is the basis of todays 150k that gets thrown around but it was a combination of things that this came from.
The thing wasn't just about the overall team value increase divided by the amount of trades, but when you make the upgrade.
The earlier it is done the more overall points you get etc so there was a lot of data recorded and was part of the reason I liked to team track years ago to see trends/trades made/what they were worth etc

Anyways might go back through some old posts/threads and see if I can find them, probably some interesting stuff there but I am happy letting others take the reigns with their team trackers these days haha.

Basically retired these days, and if it wasn't for feeling bad about those who have me in fantasy/fantasy and the leagues i would probably just do a meme team haha

If you have read this far then enjoy a snippit of stats nostalgia

stats 1:

Stats 2:

Steve stats:

rhinoceroo wrote:

There's no Haas or Grant of course, but the big thing is the absence of any base price starting halves who can pump out 40s or more. Entry level for that is the mid 400s.

They likely arrive sooner or later though, Simpkins, Simpkin, Verrills, Suaalii, Walker, Marzhew, Young, Schuster. Any of these guys given a chance could become guns in their position. Just takes an injury or 2 or them being given a chance due to their ability.

Chewie wrote:Just rewatched some of Panthers-Cowboys game to see why Koro was subbed.
The Panthers were 8-0 up, but the Cowboys were getting close to getting over the line. Koro was leading the tackle-count, looked pretty gassed, but could have played on. The Panther's needed a bit of an energy injection and brought on Tyrone May. In the next attacking set May is part of opening up the Cowboys defense and it changes the momentum.
Koro is subbed of at 49mins, Panthers score tries in 52nd, 58th, and 61st minute.

It looks like coach Cleary made the right call. I don't think it will happen every week, but I can see the tactical reasons.

NRL Physio mentioned it was likely a precautionary measure as he was clutching wrist with injury. In no doubt though this week

Given they were leading comfortably, just gave him game off after then

Like MS said though, probably just see May come on for different one of Yeo/Koro/JFH each week to keep them fresh

mattnz wrote:

They likely arrive sooner or later though, Simpkins, Simpkin, Verrills, Suaalii, Walker, Marzhew, Young, Schuster. Any of these guys given a chance could become guns in their position. Just takes an injury or 2 or them being given a chance due to their ability.

Of course cows will crop up in the season, I was specifically talking about starting round one halves.

I don't think cash generation will be that much of a problem anywhow. Turpin, Brailey, Watson, Liddle should all make serious coin and the differentiation will be about how long you hold them and how you use the profits.

All this rain around will non teddy owners potentially get a low score to bring his price down? Or is teddy struggling in wet conditions from using short studs just a myth!

Honey Badger wrote:All this rain around will non teddy owners potentially get a low score to bring his price down? Or is teddy struggling in wet conditions from using short studs just a myth!

Its true
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/james-tedesco-has-good-reason-for-ditching-long-studs-20180919-p504pw.html

easytiger wrote:

Thanks for posting this.

Steve was always looking at deeper levels of analysis and I particularly loved his articles on the various biases that we use in selection that can cloud our judgement.
Definitely sorely missed and I've been thinking lately that I should cast my eye over some of his old articles or the prospectus as there were plenty of gems there that are just as relevant today.

Thinking about making money and how much a trade is worth, while dollars are important for the end game, it's equally important to consider that Fantasy is scored on points not dollars.
It's just finding that balance of maximising both points and value gain.

Your'e welcome, yeah Steve was a good bloke and wish I knew him better
It got me thinking and diving through some old PM's from him by chance that I forgot were there,  time goes fast

There is probably a wealth of info in the old articles he wrote along with old threads here that is still relevant today
It's like history where we keep repeating the same mistakes and forgetting stuff we learnt to get to where we are now

We get lazy and use the answer when we don't fully understand the question
Same thing happens here sometimes by all of us trading in and risking on dodgy cows for a quick buck haha

Using stats or bias to manipulate their answer to suit their agenda, meanwhile contradicting themselves in the same post too
IE player got extra minutes because of HIA but another identical player is better even though the same thing happened to them (Because it helps you feel better and help you make your decision, it still doesn't change the facts)
Or even though a player has done something 100 times, playing same minutes or role before it won't happen again because said reason
Why the coach always does the same thing like play a 2rf for 80mins that it will be different this time....
How come there is a back on the bench? Will this effect my player?
Why does one young bench forward in the team play small minutes over the more experienced ones. This week will be different....

Maybe that's why some teams are ultra consistent, whether they know it or not
Too many variables or ??? leads to too much risk, the only thing we definitely have is previous pts, minutes, position etc
The rest is just guesswork and too many of these you open yourself up to failure
Like too many risky pointless POD's , you might kill it with 2 but the other 3 fail and your season is gone
Sure you get your forum brags on the 2 success but the other 3 failures aren't going anywhere either
Everyone grabs them regardless but hey you got them first right..

Calculated risks using stats to back it up however, they are what you want....

Anyways that was basically the consensus, not the final value but when the final team was assembled was more important
The earlier you could generate cash the faster the upgrades and more points you gained early mattered.
It's why the byes were great, time it right and you could have a complete team coming out of the second bye plus all the extra points in one
You would be flying up the ranks with your non origin guns.
Meanwhile people are still mucking around with late cows and you are smashing out big scores

Another thing that is quite handy is what you pay for each point
This works better as the season average goes on but a good way to see what you are paying for said player
Assuming you have maximised your scoring 17, then technically your team should be full of these.

Anyways will always laugh a little when I see things like 'Never trade a keeper' or 'Must make 150k'
Nope not always true,think outside the box, have a plan as it's not always so black and white


TLDR
Basically the point upgrade to a player lessons the longer the season goes on
Swapping 30pts cows for 20 rounds then an upgrade to a 50pt 'final' player for the final rounds is worse than having an underpriced 45pt cow from say rd13

It's why the underpriced non origin players end up looking pretty good overall in some cases for their price. (Assuming they play the bye round)
Or if you are the ultimate scrooge, going from a cash cow to a fallen gun early, that's the gravy there
Much better than say 'making 150k from your trade', you made a shit load more than that and got an upgrade to points too
So keep an eye out in 4 or 5 rounds, make quick cash and be ready for them

Enough novels for the year, now back to the fantasy talk haha

How bout that rain eh
Who has the best wet hair in the comp and why is it chad

It's a trip down memory lane courtesy of the Boozecluez

I feel really dumb for looking at dumping Koro this week and having a nice stash of $s. I'm spooked from that r1 game.

How does Lodge and Simonsson to Alvaro and Leniu sound? Still have Moylan as cover for WFB

Turpin
BS9 Leniu Watson
Fifita Riki
Cleary Lam
Roberts Averillo
Teddy Papy Laurie

Brailey
Liddle
Milford
Crichton

Alvaro
Moylan
Niu
Stefano

Would like Ofa but the only way is to trade out Lam and I think that’s premature. Thoughts?

Jack Torrance wrote:I feel really dumb for looking at dumping Koro this week and having a nice stash of $s. I'm spooked from that r1 game.

Check Chewies post on previous page.

Revraiser wrote:It's a trip down memory lane courtesy of the Boozecluez

Went down the rabbit hole and not the one attached to the man with the large pool

Revraiser wrote:

Check Chewies post on previous page.

That makes me want to trade him

Boozecluez wrote:

Went down the rabbit hole and not the one attached to the man with the large pool

I love this part "forgetting stuff we learnt to get to where we are now", it's a classic truism. 


Retired you say ? No comeback or part time plan ? 

Jack Torrance wrote:
That makes me want to trade him

I did my best. 










 

Boozecluez wrote:
Who has the best wet hair in the comp and why is it chad

Nicho Hynes?

Revraiser wrote:

I love this part "forgetting stuff we learnt to get to where we are now", it's a classic truism. 


Retired you say ? No comeback or part time plan ? 

Haha just cherry pick the odd player out now and chuck them out there
Up to people to roll with them or not, I am no nostradamus but make sure they are fairly safe calculated gambles they people may have overlooked
Mixes it up here a bit and changes the teams/repetition on here a little haha

That’s enough haha

Part time stay at home dad now, feel like she takes a lot of my energy