I still prefer NAS. All other things being equal, he has a much higher PPM, so an extra 10 minutes for each would increase NAS's scoring by more. Last season NAS only needed 40+ minutes to average near keeper scores (58 average) and plays round 13 when he should get lots of minutes when Origin players are gone. Would be surprised to see Welch get near keeper level scores, even playing 50+ minutes.
Can you trust him to get those minutes consistently though?
Last season his split was:
9 games under 30 minutes (including 2 at starting lock, and 1 at starting prop)
5 games 30-40 minutes
4 games 40-50 minutes
4 games 50+ minutes
I just think he's too variable, with Bellamy using his impact to go with the flow of the game. When Welch settled back from injury at starting prop, his minutes were much more consistent (low of 41, high of 61, mostly around 48-55).
Not saying it's a bad call - huge upside if it comes off - but a couple of lower minute games early on halt any price rises pretty quickly, then Finucane is back.