NRL Fantasy 2021 part 6 - Return of the Party

Welshy wrote:Scott hasn’t been same player since leaving Storm. Too much risk involved and plenty of players around his price

Scott hasn't been the same player since he decked Dylan Walker.

You could see watching Papy in those early rounds that while the scores weren't there, they were definitely coming. There were a lot of near breaks, desperation tackles that just stopped him making a boom play, you could see it was just a matter of time before those things started going his way, and they did.

Archer wrote:
Oooh, I smell an avatar bet coming on, who do you like more at the price point (I don't entirely disagree but you know me...)

Bird??

Bethany_B wrote:


The reasoning is that you either get him at round 5-6 or wait till after Origin, and I feel that waiting that long is too long.

I don't like the idea of starting with him since you can get someone much more consistent than him for the same price. By starting with Teddy, you're giving up the opportunity to start with a different 800k+ player, almost all of whom are much more consistent scorers.

This isn't Supercoach, where Teddy is by far the best player

It's been a multi-year trend that Teddy has a couple quiet games early on before going nuts after the first few rounds, and I intend to use the saved cash elsewhere in my team.

Not really seeing this trend

2020 first few games

30
51
94
111

2019

18
43
86
62


His first game was quiet last couple of years, that's about it. And this year he starts with Manly who are probably going to suck.

Welshy wrote:Scott hasn’t been same player since leaving Storm. Too much risk involved and plenty of players around his price

Only had the one year away from the Storm with off field dramas so could come rite. But agree with you on the other players around his price being less risky. Would go Bird or Robert's over him.

I grabbed Scott late last year, what a terrible trade that was..

Why is no one mentioning Herbie? Seems a decent option for his price if he starts at centre no?

my tv broke wrote:I grabbed Scott late last year, what a terrible trade that was..

Put that in the Mistake Thread

Ramitinmyhaaas wrote:Why is no one mentioning Herbie? Seems a decent option for his price if he starts at centre no?

Biggest thing holding him back is the Broncos team, but he's on my radar.

my tv broke wrote:

Biggest thing holding him back is the Broncos team, but  he's on my radar.

Yeah just got a good feeling about him having a great season.

Welshy wrote:
Bird??

Haha knew you'd pick him but you need two ctrs and I already have bird so you picked the one I definitely won't bet against

Ramitinmyhaaas wrote:

Yeah just got a good feeling about him having a great season.

Im big on Herbie, huge potential. Was one of the few positives from last year.

my tv broke wrote:

Biggest thing holding him back is the Broncos team, but  he's on my radar.

I like him as a player but geez it's hard looking at that many Broncos players in your team. And, no offence, they're still a bad team. They're going to lose a lot of games and that's never good for collective fantasy scoring*. Currently have Riki, Niu and Milford.  Others might have Lodge and Isaako too. Plus they haven't even changed the jerseys of Ofa and Difita on the app so adding Herbie would be too much of that shirt to look at.

*Edit. In the backs, at least.

Ramitinmyhaaas wrote:Why is no one mentioning Herbie? Seems a decent option for his price if he starts at centre no?

Had him for a bit last year and he was pretty decent. As long as he stays in the centres and dosent get pushed to the wing to much he could be an option.

Archer wrote:
Haha knew you'd pick him but you need two ctrs and I already have bird so you picked the one I definitely won't bet against

Ummm HTF if named CTR round 1?

easytiger wrote:I had an early night for once and woke to find nearly 10 pages had been added.
At first I assumed that there must've been some big NRL Fantasy related event that had happened.

I was quite shocked to discover it was largely down to a discussion of Matt's error-free fantasy existence, the beautiful and ongoing courtship between Random & MF, plus a new Rabbits draft team.

I will never go to bed early again!

Revraiser wrote:


Oh man, You have read what i said and thats how you interpret it ? I refuse to believe you are this limited. Nothing i said is related to fantasy. Read the first line. It's the nuts and bolts of league and adapting. Coaches and players change tactics since day dot. Haven't picked that bit up yet ?

For you to not be able to see Paps would come good due to both coach and player changing it up is a pretty glaring miss.

Just on coaches adapting plans, I've been reading the Cam Smith autobiography (don't particularly recommend it so far) and he says of the Melbourne Storm:

We're not a side that will let the opposition score twenty while we score 24.
Out mindset: 'We'll keep you to ten, and we'll score twelve'.
As soon as Craig took over, three-quarters of our training was on defence.

He elaborates further in following chapters, but basically it seems (coach Bellamy) focuses heavily on defence and defensive patterns across the preseason and early rounds, the attack patterns gets honed as the season progresses (and especially so when there are major rule changes).
I recall Smith also mentioning that the spine would try and work out attack patterns themselves over the course of the season and bring these to Bellamy, who would sometimes say no, but would often rubber stamp it.

Basically, it's quite within Melbourne's season strategy to start small, simple and highly structured and then gradually adapt/improve their attack (not forgetting that half the spine were having their first preseason as the incumbent half and fullback - Hughes & Papenhuyzen).

rhinoceroo wrote:

I like him as a player but geez it's hard looking at that many Broncos players in your team. And, no offence, they're still a bad team. They're going to lose a lot of games and that's never good for collective fantasy scoring*. Currently have Riki, Niu and Milford.  Others might have Lodge and Isaako too. Plus they haven't even changed the jerseys of Ofa and Difita on the app so adding Herbie would be too much of that shirt to look at.

*Edit. In the backs, at least.

We the spooners, aint no offense in saying we are shit.

A very good season for us would be somewhat in the mix for the 8 late in the season. I think 10thh to 12th finish is a success imo

mattnz wrote:

Hoping that a coach sees the error of his ways because the way he is playing your player is keeping his fantasy scoring low is the dummest thing I have heard, and definitely not a valid strategy. With 5 scores of 40 or less including a 32 with a try and a high of a single 50 in the first 6 rounds, if the coach kept playing him as he was, he wasnt fantasy relevant. The fact that the coach totally changed the game plan after that doesnt change it being a valid decision at the time.

This discussion started because someone posted about video proof that confirmed exactly what I was saying about that change in Papy's role. Time to stop being a tosser about it.

Don’t you listen to them matt. ALL those other people are wrong and you are right.
It’s just like when I listen to the radio and I’m singing the song they’re playing, they ALWAYS get the words wrong.

rhinoceroo wrote:

How long is Croker out for? If Timoko (or whoever else plays there) outperforms Scott over a few rounds would he keep his place?

Croker is hoping to be fit for round 1. Either way he’ll be back quite early.