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    NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 87 - Kotoni Staggs is now a half so he'll move a few feet in.

    FaringdonSwirl
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    Post by FaringdonSwirl Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:13 am

    mrbrownstone wrote:

    Looking forward to figuring out byes & bye planning next year, as I haven't really gotten my head around that yet.

    Me too mate! This being my first year that is one thing that I've missed out on.


    Anyone know of any resources/write ups explaining how it works?
    wolfking
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    Post by wolfking Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:14 am

    White Lightning wrote:Great summary Wolfy. It's great to see both Chewie & yourself carving up this year & developing into very good fantasy players.

    Thanks mate. Very happy that the furry beast cracked the top 100 too.
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    Post by Guest Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:16 am

    StormTrooper96 wrote:

    AHEM!

    Sorry bro you did great as well & had a very good year. All 3 of you kicked my ass.
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    Post by wolfking Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:17 am

    StormTrooper96 wrote:

    I spent this year with a lot of similar actions. I went with my gut a lot on a few calls. (i.e trading Niu to Cotric in R14 (averaged 40 since then). It helped out in many ways as he was able to fill in at WFB at times others had to pick guys like HTF/Herbie). Being aggressive also helped, but then it also didnt. Being aggressive on played like Williams, Musgrove, Stimson, Brailey all worked out in my favour but then trading guys like Mann and Luai too early hurt as they kicked on in the back half of the year.

    2 big regrets for the year were missing out on Fogarty and trading Randall instead of Starling as my gut told me he would overtake Havili easily, but the starting Hooker who scored 70+ in his first game obviously came out on top.

    Many going Randall over Starling so we can't kick ourselves too much.  I kick myself more for not trusting the gut, as opposed to siding with the stats. I do agree on Mann and Luai as I chopped both early but it depends on who you are bringing in for them also.  I think I traded Mann for McInnes so I can't regret that.


    Last edited by wolfking on Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:18 am; edited 1 time in total
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:18 am

    Dropped 11 more ranks overnight updates were not kind, finished 476th.
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    Post by Guest Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:20 am

    My mistake this year & it's not the first time I've repeated this mistake is going for expensive guns too early & not building team depth with cows.
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    Post by Chewie Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:22 am

    White Lightning wrote:Great summary Wolfy. It's great to see both Chewie & yourself carving up this year & developing into very good fantasy players.

    Thanks mate!
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    Post by mrbrownstone Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:22 am

    Judging off the FOG league, 18957 was enough to finish in the top 1,000 (996). Finished on 18902 (1252 rank), so just 55 points off. Captaining CM9 instead of DCE would have done it. Always easy in hindsight hey.

    Amazing how close it is in that range. One Starling banner vs playing 16 pretty much separated 500 places.
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    Post by Camo123 Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:25 am

    FaringdonSwirl wrote:

    Me too mate! This being my first year that is one thing that I've missed out on.


    Anyone know of any resources/write ups explaining how it works?
    Vlandys mentioned they will view how Origin rates post season and may keep it the same if it rates well so bye planning could be dead

    In some cases it can be pretty overrated as players get injured close to bye rounds and mess up plans but Origin mid season adds in cash outs and resting similar to this season
    StormTrooper96
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:26 am

    White Lightning wrote:

    Sorry bro you did great as well & had a very good year. All 3 of you kicked my ass.

    Just kidding. Just making a funny.
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    Post by Guest Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:37 am

    Finished at 788 ranked which will put me in L4 next year. However one plus was winning L3 major final. Mind you I was very lucky as in the semi I beat Milford the Magician by 1 point & the loser of the other semi was Milchy who scored higher than me.
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:43 am

    FaringdonSwirl wrote:

    Me too mate! This being my first year that is one thing that I've missed out on.


    Anyone know of any resources/write ups explaining how it works?

    I've played the game long enough to have tried 10 different ways to bye plan

    For me, it seems to work best when I completely ignore bye planning in your initial squad. That leads to thinking where you want to keep someone priced at 30 that is averaging 32 because you will need them in round 12, rather than grabbing a solid cow.

    After the dust starts to settle in round 4-5 I start to figure out the byes. For this to work you need to be able to estimate who will be in and around origin contention and who is no chance. Players with NZ and England eligible are great here because you can count on them being available, although they still have to be good fantasy options like Surgess and James Graham were in the past.

    From there I make a list of the teams playing and the must have players from those teams. Normally ends up being around 8-9 players that you absolutely want scoring for your team as top shelf guns.

    Next step I plan how to attack it. There will always be a bye that seems "harder" because less fantasy relevant teams are playing, it's normally the last big bye. This is the one that I attack the hardest to try and make sure I have 17 players on the field including all of the must have guns.

    So plan normally looks like this

    Get your starting squad of the best available players>Trade hard in the first 2-3 weeks to get the best available cows you have missed, while not sacrificing guys you believe in>Make your first upgrade targets the guns that are playing the first big bye>1-2 weeks before first big bye start to fill out your squad with some cash outs that play the bye>Blow through trades very quickly between bye 1 and bye 2, I would normally max trade in this period>Come out of bye 2 needing only 1-2 guys to round out your 17, with a plan to grab them the week after the 2nd bye>Hold on for dear life on the ride home, with 1-2 trades for injuries
    filthridden
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    Post by filthridden Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:06 pm

    607th and 48th in the FOG.

    I'm not too disappointed although I was hoping to finish inside the top 500 and 50 more points from Friend would have seen me finish 471st so including others getting his extra points, I may have snuck in there. Doesn't matter now.

    So here's what we have on the menu coming up:

    *Rumours of a finals fantasy series
    *Forum awards (get your votes in!)
    *A serious amount of off season shitpost threads like "Make a team with only players who are left handed" or some shit.
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    Post by ShadowSabre Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:38 pm

    Wow what a final round that was, couldn't really catch a break! Wish I had thought of captaining Carrigan!! Ended up 345th overall, which isn't what I hoped going into the weekend, but oh well still happy with top 500 this season when I ran out of trades with 4 rounds to go. 33rd in the FOG league which I'm pretty stoked with considering I was in L13 this season and the talent in this group. Thanks for all the knowledge and inputs this year everyone and here's to a mean finals series!!
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    Post by RandomSil Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:41 pm

    wolfking wrote:My 163 was my best ranking too after playing for a few years now.  The biggest things I did differently and learned this season were;

    1) Be agressive.  For years, I've played with caution.  Saving trades early, being hesitant, giving players multiple chances etc.  I was never an agressive fantasy player.  This year I changed that and went pretty hard.  I tapered off at the last six weeks though.  Hesitation crept back into my game.  I may have finished higher if I played as hard as I did early on.

    2) Chop players when they don't pass the eye test.  I've always given players too many chances.  I use to think they would come good.  Nine times out of ten, they don't.  This year, Knight, Williams, those sorts of players I chopped early.  People have great arguments, but I took more note this year in watching the players closely and then after week one, would ask myself if I could see them becoming fantasy relevant.  If my gut says no, it's trade time.

    3) Go with your gut.  I was always very persuasive and use to go with the masses on things, but this year I made more of an effort of backing myself more.  As I said earlier, late in the year I swayed slightly.  For example, Randall vs Starling.  Randall was the hot pick, but my gut was saying Starling would be the better option, I went with Randall and was kicking myself since.  A couple of late season calls of not going with my gut hurt.  Also going with my gut in starting with Nofo worked well.  Again, I should have went with my gut in trading him late in the season, but he finished with a 49 average, so that's a big win.

    4) Get the players that score points.  POD's is a tactic I don't think works that well.  You need all the players that score points.  Got McInnes nice and early, same with Ted.  Missed Ponga until the last two weeks which was a flop but you can't get them all either.  Nathan Brown however was a great POD the last six weeks though.  He again was more a gut call.  Luckily he finished the year in gun form.  People getting put off him potentially getting suspended was a big attraction which leads to my next point.

    5) Don't worry about what MIGHT happen.  Restings, suspensions, injuries, don't worry what might happen.  I've done that in the past and it fails.  Nathan Brown is a fine example of this.  Some have merit, like Turbo, but all in all I think too much weight gets put into things like this.

    This is a big one for me, don't think "Oh I need PoD's to catch up" no you just need a combination of the highest point scorers. If McInnes, Cleary, Haas, Tedesco is going to score more points than Cook, DCE, Taupau, Edwards then you should get the higher point scorers, and go with the hope that most other teams will only have 3/4 guys listed. That is only with 4 spots not across your whole 17. At the end of the day, if you had the 17 best scorers in Fantasy it doesn't matter if every other team had 15 of those guys on average. You still outscore them.
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    Post by Juggernauts Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:57 pm

    Does anyone know if there is any fantasy platform that does finals fantasy or Womens Nrl fantasy?
    wolfking
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    Post by wolfking Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:58 pm

    RandomSil wrote:

    This is a big one for me, don't think "Oh I need PoD's to catch up" no you just need a combination of the highest point scorers. If McInnes, Cleary, Haas, Tedesco is going to score more points than Cook, DCE, Taupau, Edwards then you should get the higher point scorers, and go with the hope that most other teams will only have 3/4 guys listed. That is only with 4 spots not across your whole 17. At the end of the day, if you had the 17 best scorers in Fantasy it doesn't matter if every other team had 15 of those guys on average. You still outscore them.

    Yep. In theory a POD will only work when guns backfire. And then, it's rare that proven guns backfire enough to make any significant difference in climbing the ranks. They only backfire for a week normally. If they get injured you're one up but that's it. POD's are like a mirage in the desert. Having one or two is fine but then again, they have to match the highly owned guns. Some do, like Brown and Friz this year, and Nofo to a lesser extent given the crap selection in that position, but the POD's are normally the ones that are more inconsistent in the long run. They are less reliable.

    With Nofo, starting with him is what gave me the edge and he came out of the blocks flying. If you're given a choice to trade in say Nofo or Ted a few weeks in, then choosing Nofo because he's a POD is simply asking for trouble.
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    Post by wolfking Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:05 pm

    I've said this before but shoutout to @Trajan for my shift in tactic this season. He called me out a couple of times in the past for talking shit and being so indecisive. He was right. Even thought I still talk shit now, he made me pull my head in and stop being a pussy in terms of playing the game with agression. The only thing this year was the slight panic and reverting back a bit when I saw my ranking go up.
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    Post by B/L Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:10 pm

    Camo123 wrote:
    Vlandys mentioned they will view how Origin rates post season and may keep it the same if it rates well so bye planning could be dead

    In some cases it can be pretty overrated as players get injured close to bye rounds and mess up plans but Origin mid season adds in cash outs and resting similar to this season

    I just cant see it happening.

    All the players are busted, will shorten the pre season.

    Mass exodus of players will pull out to have off season surgery.

    I think it just weakens the product although I do enjoy it not interrupting the nrl season.
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    Post by robelgordo Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:20 pm

    RandomSil wrote:

    This is a big one for me, don't think "Oh I need PoD's to catch up" no you just need a combination of the highest point scorers. If McInnes, Cleary, Haas, Tedesco is going to score more points than Cook, DCE, Taupau, Edwards then you should get the higher point scorers, and go with the hope that most other teams will only have 3/4 guys listed. That is only with 4 spots not across your whole 17. At the end of the day, if you had the 17 best scorers in Fantasy it doesn't matter if every other team had 15 of those guys on average. You still outscore them.

    I think the mistake people make with PODs are doing it at the top instead of the bottom of your squad

    My view is you want to have the surefire players and, unless there’s a specific situation like H2H or circumstances in the last couple of rounds, the safest captain. The captain debates here kill me because it should be a really simple call for like 80% of the season between 2-3 players at most.

    Where you get benefit from PODs is on the edges where there’s natural team variation and you can use your superior knowledge or just getting arsey with the timing to get an edge.

    So N Brown is a good POD if it’s instead of Jazz, but not over McInnes. Edwards is ok instead of Papy but not over Teddy or Ponga. Captaining Tedesco over Cleary or Haas is just dumb to me, it’s just gambling.

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