NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 70 - Low-max

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Love your work MTB

Randall being in 71% of the top 1000 is surprising. Wonder how many would have brought him in if his break even was 60 instead of -20? How much cash he makes is really pretty irrelevant with most not having the trades to get him back out

I assume most viewed him as I did; as a pretty safe two-way bet. The hope, for me, is that he can be a valid option for 17/18th man until the end of the year.

But with his low BE, I was thinking he'd make quicker and more cash than most the plodding cows I have in my team at the moment (before they all scored well this weekend) and being another hooker, he'd be an easier trade out in a few weeks than some of the more valuable positional cows I might end up keeping if they're going well enough to become EMG positional cover.

End of the day, though, the HIA kind of made a mess out of all those plans. Hopefully not, though. I still hope he's a solid 17/18th man option.

Today is the final date for roster changes / mid season signings ?

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:

I bought Randall but the only cover I'm missing is CTR so thought better off to grab a half decent piece of cover if needed

I got Randall for Luai to free up cash for this week. I think with most people trading out Koro, and a significant group also having to trade Macca as well... those players were often replaced by guns in other positions, so coverage concerns are probably not that bad for most.

Having said that Randall AND Starling is ballsy, and looking at the ownership %'s there are a decent number holding both.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

I would be hesitant to pay above 900k for anyone other than Cook, Haas, McInnes. The others don't have the sustained base to be up there long term and rely on attacking stats, which I've found are pretty inconsistent

Buying Cleary now achieves 3 things A) you miss the points he has already scored, B) you spend the extra cash that he has already made, C) you lock in the same number of points as his owners for the rest of the year.

Sometimes there are no alternatives and you want to achieve C), but in a year where no one will end up with an ideal 17 there are plenty of alternatives at better price points

Being able to put the numbers up that he has time and time again just scares me going forward. Thanks mate, I'll mull over it.

wolfking wrote:

Being able to put the numbers up that he has time and time again just scares me going forward.  Thanks mate, I'll mull over it.

Definitely understand the fear factor of wanting to bank his points each week, especially since he is in 91% of the top 1000. If I was looking to buy him I'd do some forward modelling on what I could do with the extra cash. If it didn't make a huge difference to my team(slightly weaker centres and 19th man for example) then I'd probably pull the trigger. But if it meant sacrificing on 16th and 17th man I'd probably go with the value

robelgordo wrote:

I got Randall for Luai to free up cash for this week. I think with most people trading out Koro, and a significant group also having to trade Macca as well... those players were often replaced by guns in other positions, so coverage concerns are probably not that bad for most.

Having said that Randall AND Starling is ballsy, and looking at the ownership %'s there are a decent number holding both.

I was more referring to teams outside of this forum - generally most here are wary of coverage and trade accordingly.. you do come across a lot of teams though that just trade hard and fast, and don't really think about the big picture.

Its generally why the NRLFF teams make big charges up the overall ranks late season

CS9 surely a hold?

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Love your work MTB

Randall being in 71% of the top 1000 is surprising. Wonder how many would have brought him in if his break even was 60 instead of -20? How much cash he makes is really pretty irrelevant with most not having the trades to get him back out

His BE is largely irrelevant, but not entirely irrelevant. A low BE means he makes cash which is useful if he gets injured and has to be traded out again using your "injury" trades, means you have more options with who to replace him with. But yeah was not a factor at all in my decision to grab him. Would have got Siro but was 9k short.

Lucy and Butcher > Teddy and Munster/Moses with roughly 22K leftover.

Thoughts?

EDIT: then all I need is one more gun 2RF and I’m done.

StormTrooper96 wrote:CS9 surely a hold?

AC joint might only be a week. Even two weeks probably a hold. I'd hold personally.

StormTrooper96 wrote:Lucy and Butcher > Teddy and Munster/Moses with roughly 22K leftover.

Thoughts?

EDIT: then all I need is one more gun 2RF and I’m done.

I imagine Teddy BE will be high 80s or more

Loomer wrote:

I imagine Teddy BE will be high 80s or more

This is true. One of those ones where BE's shouldn't really matter; however, I possibly could and grab a gun 2RF instead

If you're buying a gun the b/e shouldn't matter.

Reece Robson 1.8% ownership and with the drama a couple of weeks ago with the Cows bench, surprised to see 36% ownership in the top 50. Thought he was a real POD. Looks like Matterson, Murray and Moses are my real PODs now. Herbie too if he gets dpp and I play him over Talau or Wiliame if he gets a run.

StormTrooper96 wrote:Lucy and Butcher > Teddy and Munster/Moses with roughly 22K leftover.

Thoughts?

EDIT: then all I need is one more gun 2RF and I’m done.

I like it. Tough choice between Munster and Moses. I lean towards Moses but not based on anything other than my gut feels.

A quick analysis of top 50 vs top 1000 ownership

Top 10 players - more common in the top 50 than top 1000:
S Crichton (74% ownership top 50, 47% top 1000)
Cook (54,30)
Robson (36,15)
Tevaga (44,28)
Fogarty (26,13)
Hunt (92,83)
RFM (40,31)
CS9 (24,15) - I guess not for long
Peachey (10,2)
Papy (78,71)

Less common in the top 50 than top 1000:

Top 5 with zero ownership top 50
Mann - 8% owned top 1000, 0 in 50
Katoa - 6
Clune - 4
NBrown - 4
Musgrove, DBrown - 3

Top 5 with some ownership top 50
Lomax (44% top 50, 68% top 1000)
Starling (32,50)
Lucy (4, 18)
Randall (60,72)
Matterson (12,21)

Camo123 wrote:Not one for me based on coverage but those looking at gun HLF, is no one looking at ARey who should drop fair bit of cash after -1

Could be a great option in the next few weeks. I'm also interested every week Brooks drops a wad of cash. Assuming he does come back into the starting side, which I'm sure he will, he'll be very tasty too. Add in Moses and Munster... Been a lot of tempting price drops in halves this year.

And Pearce, who is currently my 3rd choice half. Team balance wouldn't be ideal but looks like there's more half temptation ahead.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Definitely understand the fear factor of wanting to bank his points each week, especially since he is in 91% of the top 1000. If I was looking to buy him I'd do some forward modelling on what I could do with the extra cash. If it didn't make a huge difference to my team(slightly weaker centres and 19th man for example) then I'd probably pull the trigger. But if it meant sacrificing on 16th and 17th man I'd probably go with the value

Thanks for your input brother. I'll look into it but I don't think it affects my team that much but will sit down and see what I can come up with.

It will be Lucy out for Cleary but McInnes down to second row, Hunt to bench and Grant starting. Bench would still be Hunt, Pearce, Carrigan but would have to play 2 out of Siro, Young, Randall and Hetherington. But that's looking decent enough for a couple of weeks as they are making money. Young hopefully can become Bateman with a double trade in a couple weeks time. Still have 8 going into this week.

It's open trade away