NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 4

Rabbits21 wrote:
What’d you make of JMK and Stimson?

Do you see JMK playing close to 80mins and being able to average close to 50.

Also do you think Jackson will play in the middle with CHN and Stimson starting in the second row?

Not sure on JMK because he's just coming back from injury & could be underdone round 1. Stimson if he starts will be in my team.
With the injury I can't see him playing 80 mins to start the season.
There's been a lot of talk that JJ should play in the middle to accommodate CHN & Stimson on the edges

The most important thing to remember is the coach is Dean Pay & anything could happen

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

People are just filling their bench with cheap player with a chance at a first grade spot. Rudolph, Magoulias, Musgrove etc

None of it matters till TLT

This is an interesting point. Filling 18-21 with players named TLT so my question would be (and I know I’ve asked similar Re Xerri);
Who is worth Jersey 21 no matter what TLT brings?

Currently eyeing To’a and Leleisiuao in this bracket

GreenMachine wrote:

This is an interesting point. Filling 18-21 with players named TLT so my question would be (and I know I’ve asked similar Re Xerri);
Who is worth Jersey 21 no matter what TLT brings?

Currently eyeing To’a and Leleisiuao in this bracket

If either of them are named, I will have them in my 3rd WFB spot. Should score well enough and gives money to spend elsewhere.

Rabbits21 wrote:
Now many mins do you see Mikaele and Musgrove getting when the season starts?

Got Mikaele around 40mins. No idea on what to expect for Musgrove, hasn't played NRL in two years. Though did train all last year with the team.

I have been a vocal Haas fence sitter, but reading his stats is pretty compelling stuff.

Here is my breakdown (please note I am not a statistician or mathematician and my calculations may be liable to give the number connoisseurs amongst us bad gas)

Minutes:
averaged 63.85 minutes. He had an outlier game of just 48 minutes (his only game below 57mins) and two full games of 80 and 82 mins (ignoring the sticky subject that if he had two full games it follows that they arn’t really outliers). Ignoring these, he still finds 62.7 minutes, which seems a fair reflection as 50% of his games were between 60-64 minutes of gametime.

Tackles: averaged 34.6 tackles per game, but only went below 30 tackles three times in twenty games (15%); in 50% of games he made 36 or more tackles.

Run Metres: averaged 190 RM, only went below 150RM three times (15%) and was above 200RM in 50% of games

Tacklebreaks: 4.8 per game- found 3 or more TBs in 75% of games; 4 or more TBs in 65% of games; 5 or more in 50% of games

Missed Tackles: 1.1 per game average and even that is because of two outlier games- had zero in 35% of games; 1 or less 75% of the time; only went over 2 MT in three games all year

Errors: 7 all season, statistically insignificant

So working out his minimum base, I will use the absolute minimum of 30 Tackles (achieved in 85% of games), 150 run metres(85%), 3 tacklebreaks (75%) and 1 missed tackle. So really his absolute floor is 55 fantasy points. Bare minimum. And true to form he only dipped below this in three games last season, 85% of games being 55+.

So are we paying overs?
Well that 55 points is just about his absolute baseline, so he really only needs to find 13 extra points to hold value. 50% of the time he finds 36 tackles, >200RM and >5TBs which equals 71 fantasy points! And let us not forget that this is all without any tries or line breaks added. I have actually come around to thinking that Haas is priced pretty fairly.

The only detraction:
As stated, 50% of his games were between 60-64 minutes gametime. In these games he averaged a fantasy score of 66.1, but that was just 56.1 in tryless games (7 games). So Haas really does need those big minute games and tries. He only scored 4 tries last year, and he could improve on that. But if he doesn’t and the 60-64 minute games become his stock standard without the bigger minutes then he could actually be up to 10 points overvalued.

Tl;dr- I am finally bringing in Haas

Happy Birthday Verbal!!!

Happy Birthday VK.

WT2K wrote:

Got Mikaele around 40mins. No idea on what to expect for Musgrove, hasn't played NRL in two years. Though did train all last year with the team.

When he played between 34-45mins in 7 games last season he averaged about 38. His PPM was 0.88 last season.

No reason if he gets 40mins that he can’t average 34-35 which is 8-9 points better than his starting price.

Is Mikaele on your radar for a front row or interchange spot?

Rabbits21 wrote:
When he played between 34-45mins in 7 games last season he averaged about 38. His PPM was 0.88 last season.

No reason if he gets 40mins that he can’t average 34-35 which is 8-9 points better than his starting price.

Is Mikaele on your radar for a front row or interchange spot?

He's starting in my main draft

WT2K wrote:

He's starting in my main draft

With Haas?

I’m keen on Luciano too but just no idea how many minutes he gets.

Garner could be a good option too but surely he can’t keep scoring so many tries and therefore I can’t see him averaging much more than about 51.

Here is a name that hasn't ever been mentioned - Ryan Hall. Looking back at his stats from last year he has good base stats averaging 176m and almost 4 tackle busts a game, thats basically 30 points alone in base stats. Also, in these games he didn't have a single line break, try assist or try. If he gets the wing spot he could actually be half an option. Just throwing it out there ahahah

Does anyone have a list of the players that have the added ‘fanhub tax’ as you all call it?

KingTeddy wrote:Here is a name that hasn't ever been mentioned - Ryan Hall. Looking back at his stats from last year he has good base stats averaging 176m and almost 4 tackle busts a game, thats basically 30 points alone in base stats. Also, in these games he didn't have a single line break, try assist or try. If he gets the wing spot he could actually be half an option. Just throwing it out there ahahah

for SC I kinda like it but in fantasy, I think he's a bit too expensive for what you get. For 10-20k more, you can get Brimson or Isaako who are both gonna play fullback instead of wing, and Isaako will kick goals to boot

Thoughts on CHT if he starts at 6? I feel like he could be a handy pick if he's starting 6 and kicking goals, he's an effort player in a team that has very few of them.

Righteo for the first 10 round how much do the following 2 players average?

Cook and Taumalolo?

If both average 64 then surely Lolo is the better option as he’s 64k cheaper?

Bethany_B wrote:Thoughts on CHT if he starts at 6? I feel like he could be a handy pick if he's starting 6 and kicking goals, he's an effort player in a team that has very few of them.

For me, it's a no. He's at an awkward price and loves a missed tackle.

Pookus McFly wrote:I have been a vocal Haas fence sitter, but reading his stats is pretty compelling stuff.

Here is my breakdown (please note I am not a statistician or mathematician and my calculations may be liable to give the number connoisseurs amongst us bad gas)

Minutes:
averaged 63.85 minutes. He had an outlier game of just 48 minutes (his only game below 57mins) and two full games of 80 and 82 mins (ignoring the sticky subject that if he had two full games it follows that they arn’t really outliers). Ignoring these, he still finds 62.7 minutes, which seems a fair reflection as 50% of his games were between 60-64 minutes of gametime.

Tackles: averaged 34.6 tackles per game, but only went below 30 tackles three times in twenty games (15%); in 50% of games he made 36 or more tackles.

Run Metres: averaged 190 RM, only went below 150RM three times (15%) and was above 200RM in 50% of games

Tacklebreaks: 4.8 per game- found 3 or more TBs in 75% of games; 4 or more TBs in 65% of games; 5 or more in 50% of games

Missed Tackles: 1.1 per game average and even that is because of two outlier games- had zero in 35% of games; 1 or less 75% of the time; only went over 2 MT in three games all year

Errors: 7 all season, statistically insignificant

So working out his minimum base, I will use the absolute minimum of 30 Tackles (achieved in 85% of games), 150 run metres(85%), 3 tacklebreaks (75%) and 1 missed tackle. So really his absolute floor is 55 fantasy points. Bare minimum. And true to form he only dipped below this in three games last season, 85% of games being 55+.

So are we paying overs?
Well that 55 points is just about his absolute baseline, so he really only needs to find 13 extra points to hold value. 50% of the time he finds 36 tackles, >200RM and >5TBs which equals 71 fantasy points! And let us not forget that this is all without any tries or line breaks added. I have actually come around to thinking that Haas is priced pretty fairly.

The only detraction:
As stated, 50% of his games were between 60-64 minutes gametime. In these games he averaged a fantasy score of 66.1, but that was just 56.1 in tryless games (7 games). So Haas really does need those big minute games and tries. He only scored 4 tries last year, and he could improve on that. But if he doesn’t and the 60-64 minute games become his stock standard without the bigger minutes then he could actually be up to 10 points overvalued.

Tl;dr- I am finally bringing in Haas

Some great analysis, Haas really is Mr Consistency!

For Haas to be up to 10 points overvalued, you are saying that the best, most block busting prop, with the biggest motor in the game wouldn't be getting line breaks, tries, or any big minute games. Its like trying to price Reynolds without his kicking meters.

When Haas scores tries as seen here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXJDSLt15fc he is getting shit loads of points:
Try 1 - 5 tackles breaks, 50 meters, line break = 32 points
Try 2 - 3 tackle breaks, 10 meters, line break = 22 points
Try 3 - 3 tackle breaks, 20 meters, line break = 23 points
Try 4 - 1 tackle break, 10 meters, line break = 16 points

Its just a matter of is he going to get 4 or 10+ tries this season.

For that 2nd gun FRF slot, who do you guys rate out of the following?

Taupau
A Fifita
JFH
Klemmer
Papalii
AFB
Lodge

mattnz wrote:

Some great analysis, Haas really is Mr Consistency!

For Haas to be up to 10 points overvalued, you are saying that the best, most block busting prop, with the biggest motor in the game wouldn't be getting line breaks, tries, or any big minute games. Its like trying to price Reynolds without his kicking meters.

When Haas scores tries as seen here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXJDSLt15fc he is getting shit loads of points:
Try 1 - 5 tackles breaks, 50 meters, line break = 32 points
Try 2 - 3 tackle breaks, 10 meters, line break = 22 points
Try 3 - 3 tackle breaks, 20 meters, line break = 23 points
Try 4 - 1 tackle break, 10 meters, line break = 16 points

Its just a matter of is he going to get 4 or 10+ tries this season.

Yeah I have become a bit of a convert as I am now convinced his price tag pretty fairly represents his output. As long as $/points is justified I don’t mind if have one player who is not undervalued, just as long as he isn’t overvalued. Especially as a captain pick, we did it every year with Smith and Parker, more recently with Cook.

One glaring weakness in my calculations was stating that 50% of the time he finds 36T, 200RM and 5TBs, but these are all independent values. That 71 points in base would be like flipping the same coin three times and getting tails every time (12.5%).  But no reason why you can’t flip tails just twice (25%), and access that premium on two stats, combinations of which find 65-66 fantasy points (still minus any tries or line breaks).

There is no avoiding him any longer.

In Haas we trust!