NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 4

castlecrag sweethearts wrote:

When Haas does manage to pop out on big score early on, I still wont be worried. Haas is going to have quite a few games where he will score a decent amount below 69. I have T'mololo in the mean time and quite a few undervalued players raking in the coin, which Haas will not do. Having Haas will make it harder to get T,mololo or a WFB CTR HLF or other gun. The 8 points or what ever it might be are simply not worth that.

Who are you picking instead of Haas at FRF though? Also when you get him in, do you then trade him out again before origin and back in again after - 3 trades, or hold during origin.

castlecrag sweethearts wrote:

When Haas does manage to pop out on big score early on, I still wont be worried. Haas is going to have quite a few games where he will score a decent amount below 69. I have T'mololo in the mean time and quite a few undervalued players raking in the coin, which Haas will not do. Having Haas will make it harder to get T,mololo or a WFB CTR HLF or other gun. The 8 points or what ever it might be are simply not worth that.

Whetehr you start with Haas or Lolo, it has little impact on your ability to pick the best cows.

Mulvy wrote:

Who are you picking instead of Haas at FRF though? Also when you get him in, do you then trade him out again before origin and back in again after - 3 trades, or hold during origin.

Origin is probably the best time to get him at his cheapest. I am convinced my other value options + T'mololo can make more cash and score better than any alternative with Haas in it. Buying Haas is paying overs. You don't do that unless you are the Tigers or the Panthers

my tv broke wrote:

Whetehr you start with Haas or Lolo, it has little impact on your ability to pick the best cows.

It does. Haas is over-valued. More bucks less points. T'mololo is perhaps a little undervalued. More money left over to spend on cows. I refuse to pay the FanHub tax

castlecrag sweethearts wrote:

It does. Haas is over-valued. More bucks less points. T'mololo is perhaps a little undervalued. More money left over to spend on cows. I refuse to pay the FanHub tax

Ah, but spending 100k more on cows doesnt make them better cows.

Again, im going to re-iterate that there is no right or wrong call at this stage. Its good to see different tactics.

castlecrag sweethearts wrote:

Without the tries and the try assists during those weeks he still scores about 50. Do you see what I mean? Hughes has quite a decent up-side because of his change in position

Croft already had decent kick metres at the Storm and despite the Bronco love here, there is not really much of an up-side in moving from the Storm.

Also Hughes has low ownership POD and DPP status for the same price

Croft was getting decent kick metres but he was still sharing them with Munster because Smith would always send the ball left. I started the season with him and it was agonising to see how often Munster kicked. The reality of fantasy is that even mediocre players can perform well if they farm the stat. When Sezer was paired with Kelly at the Titans he averaged 50 simply because he was doing 100% of the kicking. And that’s what Croft needs at the Broncos. Not just continuing his decent kick metres, but gobbling up Alllllllll the KMs. Look at Reynolds at the bunnies, he does kick goals which is an advantage but apart from that he doesn’t get too many run metres or tacklebreaks, his missed tackles leave little left in his tacklecount and even his try assists are less than you would imagine for a half of his caliber. But what he does do is kick 400 and 500 metres on the reg to make him a premium half option.

I doubt Hughes scores 50 on the week without the two tries, the tries and line breaks alone bring him back to 50, and no doubt there were a few tacklebreaks involved in those plays which would detract another 3-6+ points from there. But despite all my detractions, I do indeed see what you mean. He will have to be considered but beside selecting a premium HLF there will only be room for one mid ranger in my team, and if the trials look fortuitous I will still be selecting Croft and his bankable KMs because I take my risks in other areas of the game (like rolling with pathetic FRF cover) and I still think Hughes needs those attacking stats to be a worthwhile pick

my tv broke wrote:

Ah, but spending 100k more on cows doesnt make them better cows.

Again, im going to re-iterate that there is no right or wrong call at this stage.

Player for player - Haas is over valued. You pay a tax when you choose him. Yes you need to choose the right alternative players. But value players win out against over valued players everyday of the week. You can consider his captain potential to mitigate this, but dollar for dollar Haas is overvalued based on his performance last year and may see a reduction in minutes in a crowded pack. Not much of an upside. There is no risk of falling behind the pack if you don't choose him, provided your other choices are sound.

There is more potential of getting ahead.

Pookus McFly wrote:

Croft was getting decent kick metres but he was still sharing them with Munster because Smith would always send the ball left. I started the season with him and it was agonising to see how often Munster kicked. The reality of fantasy is that even mediocre players can perform well if they farm the stat. When Sezer was paired with Kelly at the Titans he averaged 50 simply because he was doing 100% of the kicking. And that’s what Croft needs at the Broncos. Not just continuing his decent kick metres, but gobbling up Alllllllll the KMs. Look at Reynolds at the bunnies, he does kick goals which is an advantage but apart from that he doesn’t get too many run metres or tacklebreaks, his missed tackles leave little left in his tacklecount and even his try assists are less than you would imagine for a half of his caliber. But what he does do is kick 400 and 500 metres on the reg to make him a premium half option.

I doubt Hughes scores 50 on the week without the two tries, the tries and line breaks alone bring him back to 50, and no doubt there were a few tacklebreaks involved in those plays which would detract another 3-6+ points from there. But despite all my detractions, I do indeed see what you mean. He will have to be considered but beside selecting a premium HLF there will only be room for one mid ranger in my team, and if the trials look fortuitous I will still be selecting Croft and his bankable KMs because I take my risks in other areas of the game (like rolling with pathetic FRF cover) and I still think Hughes needs those attacking stats to be a worthwhile pick

I see. Thanks for the acknowledgement. Won't Milford still kick a lot?

He was averaging around 500 m a week at the start of last year. Where will Croft find these extra metres?

castlecrag sweethearts wrote:

Origin is probably the best time to get him at his cheapest. I am convinced my other value options + T'mololo can make more cash and score better than any alternative with Haas in it. Buying Haas is paying overs. You don't do that unless you are the Tigers or the Panthers

I'm not convinced that argument stands up.

1. You are convinced of your other value options. But by definition if you are not picking Haas at FRF, you are picking someone else. Who is your value guy there? Seems like slim pickings to me.

2. You get him cheaper at origin? If he has a dud game because of origin, it will be from rd 13 onwards, then at least two or three rounds for him to bottom out. Which means your not getting him until probably rd 17 at the earliest. Alternatively, rather than dud scores he is just rested and you get no discount and still miss out on him for the first half of the year. This second point is not so much about whether you start with Haas or not (I think both sides have good arguments) but if you start without him what's your plan to get him in and how to navigate origin?

castlecrag sweethearts wrote:

I see. Thanks for the acknowledgement. Won't Milford still kick a lot?

He was averaging around 500 m a week at the start of last year. Where will Croft find these extra metres?

Haha, from Milford I assume! Personally I could see them sharing the kicking. I'm not interested particularly in Croft. I'm likely to go gun/cow there rather than gun/mid.

Im actually coming around to the idea of starting Mann and hoping for 35s. I was sold on Croft for a while but I think they might start slowly and hes not worth the cash to average say.. 42/43s

Mulvy wrote:

I'm not convinced that argument stands up.

1. You are convinced of your other value options. But by definition if you are not picking Haas at FRF, you are picking someone else. Who is your value guy there? Seems like slim pickings to me.

2. You get him cheaper at origin? If he has a dud game because of origin, it will be from rd 13 onwards, then at least two or three rounds for him to bottom out. Which means your not getting him until probably rd 17 at the earliest. Alternatively, rather than dud scores he is just rested and you get no discount and still miss out on him for the first half of the year. This second point is not so much about whether you start with Haas or not (I think both sides have good arguments) but if you start without him what's your plan to get him in and how to navigate origin?

To be honest,

My options at the moment in FRF at the moment are Carrigan and Mikaele, both undervalued. But these choices are not set in stone. I will be choosing the best value possible. They wont score big points but they are likely to rise in value and score more points per dollar. I have spent the money saved on value in other positions including other guns.

Makes sense really?

I will find a way to get Haas in when he bottoms out AND he will BECAUSE at the moment he is overvalued. Everyone who has Haas will have the problem of what to do with him, when origin comes around. I just wont have paid overs for the privilege of making that decision. Is everyone happy paying the FanHub tax? Not me!

I think buying Haas makes that decision harder because you are putting too much cash into the overvalued Haas basket, which is not going to add value to your team long term.

In general, I tend to avoid origin players but that is harder for guns. That is why it is such a shame that Bateman is injured. Maybe I should consider how to get Smith into my team as a gun?

Meanwhile, some people are choosing players with appalling value in positions like CTR just to get Haas in. That does not make sense.

castlecrag sweethearts wrote:

To be honest,

My options at the moment in FRF at the moment are Carrigan and Mikaele, both undervalued. But these choices are not set in stone. I will be choosing the best value possible. They wont score big points but they are likely to rise in value and sore more points per dollar. I have spent the money saved on value in other positions including other guns.

Makes sense really?

I will find a way to get Haas in when he bottoms out AND he will BECAUSE at the moment he is overvalued. Everyone who has Haas will have the problem of what to do with him, when origin comes around. I just wont have paid overs for the privilege of making that decision. Is everyone happy paying the FanHub tax? Not me!

I think buying Haas makes that decision harder because you are putting too much cash into the overvalued Haas basket, which is not going to add value to your team long term.

In general, I tend to avoid origin players but that is harder for guns. That is why it is such a shame that Bateman is injured.

Meanwhile, some people are choosing players with appalling value in positions like CTR just to get Haas in. That does not make sense.

Carrigan and Mikaele. Ok then, good luck with that!

Mulvy wrote:Working on a draft with McInnes, Haas, Lolo and Moses. It's not pretty. I'm dreaming with Frankie Molo aren't I?

I tried that except with Cleary instead of Moses, just left me too weak in a number of other positions.

Mulvy wrote:

Carrigan and Mikaele. Ok then, good luck with that!

Why will I need luck? FRF is a low value position at the moment. Why spend heaps of money there? If you spend it in positions, where there is value you will be better off right?

This will change as the season progresses. I can upgrade FRF when prices more accurately reflect performance.

Simple really?

Who do you think represents the best value in FRF?

Do you think Haas represents good value at the moment?

my tv broke wrote:Im actually coming around to the idea of starting Mann and hoping for 35s. I was sold on Croft for a while but I think they might start slowly and hes not worth the cash to average say.. 42/43s

You could do worse. The first six weeks are about making cash. To do that, I would postulate that ideally you want most of your players scoring 10 above their avg (except for elite guns where you just want a bit of value and upside) to maximise $ and points. Does it really matter if that's Mann priced at 24 scoring 34 or a nuffie priced at 16 scoring 26 or Best at 22 maybe scoring 32 or Hess priced at 32 scoring 42?

my tv broke wrote:Im actually coming around to the idea of starting Mann and hoping for 35s. I was sold on Croft for a while but I think they might start slowly and hes not worth the cash to average say.. 42/43s

One day I have Mann in my team and then the next day he’s out and vice versa lol!

I just can’t decide!

castlecrag sweethearts wrote:

Why will I need luck? FRF is a low value position at the moment. Why spend heaps of money there? If you spend it in positions, where there is value you will be better off right?

This will change as the season progresses. I can upgrade FRF when prices more accurately reflect performance.

Simple really?

Who do you think represents the best value in FRF?

Can't the exact same argument be made for CTRs which is why the most people are spending is Lomax/Best if not less in some occasions

Mulvy wrote:

You could do worse. The first six weeks are about making cash. To do that, I would postulate that ideally you want most of your players scoring 10 above their avg (except for elite guns where you just want a bit of value and upside) to maximise $ and points. Does it really matter if that's Mann priced at 24 scoring 34 or a nuffie priced at 16 scoring 26 or Best at 22 maybe scoring 32 or Hess priced at 32 scoring 42?

I am assuming you’re starting with Luai in your halves and hoping he averages around 27 then?

Luai is my 18th man currently, I just dunno if I can trust starting with him in my halves to partner Cleary.

castlecrag sweethearts wrote:

I see. Thanks for the acknowledgement. Won't Milford still kick a lot?

He was averaging around 500 m a week at the start of last year. Where will Croft find these extra metres?

Yeah the extra metres will come from Milford. As I said, everyone who is on him is assumedly doing so under the thought that Seibold’s plan will be for Croft to be the one steering the pack, he was put into the leadership role and he will give him the ownership he never received at the Storm, which in a fantasy sense just means the ball goes to him first on 5th tackle every time. I expect he will do all the long kicking and Milford will be used close to the line for try scoring opportunities. The same game plan Seibs used with Reynolds and Walker. Milford did so much kicking last season because he was always paired with Nikorima and others who were even worse at kicking so he had to step up. But Milford is better playing off the cuff “eyes up football” Seibold calls it. This is why they would have bought someone like Croft in the first place, to free up Milford to play the game that is more natural to him than being an organiser. Benji Marshall had the same problem, they kept playing him as an organising half when he’s a better runner of the ball and his game suffered. And the last point I will reiterate is that if Milford is kicking in the trials, then most coaches will jump off Croft. I think we will see the plan for their season unfold pretty evidently in the preseason