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    NRL Fantasy 2020 Part 1 - Offseason Edition

    Ben Marlin
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    Post by Ben Marlin Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:21 pm

    James is great option imo
    The last 2 seasons James has started on the edge and then switched back to the middle after a few games (where he is a 50+ player)
    He is still underpriced playing on the edge and he has the bonus of playing Round 12
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    Post by my tv broke Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:21 pm

    I dunno if James really has the mobility to play edge. If I was the Titans I'd want him in the middle

    Cartwright or Peachey are possibles there, both very average.. but if either could fulfill potential/expectations under the new coach, then they are probably better options
    Welshy
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    Post by Welshy Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:27 pm

    Ben Marlin wrote:James is great option imo
    The last 2 seasons James has started on the edge and then switched back to the middle after a few games (where he is a 50+ player)
    He is still underpriced playing on the edge and he has the bonus of playing Round 12
    maybe a few points underpriced if he plays pure edge and 80 but can find the same predicted output for less $$ from edge fantasy edge rowers which come along fairly regular

    Like I said if he plays middle, good value

    Fotuaika is a shout, if he gets minutes kid is a fucking monster, might be 6-10 points underpriced
    wolfking
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    Post by wolfking Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:45 pm

    Mulvy wrote:

    Welcome back Wolfy!

    Thanks mate! cheer
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    Post by wolfking Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:46 pm

    Wasn't James' big breakout year when he was like 192K and playing on the edge for most the year?
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:52 pm

    wolfking wrote:Wasn't James' big breakout year when he was like 192K and playing on the edge for most the year?  

    From memory he made plenty of money (because started so cheap) but didn't score great. Didn't help that he gave up six penalties a game.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:52 pm

    my tv broke wrote:Fanhub would have no real control over the subjective pricing, that would be the guys from the NRL.

    I've said it before, but I really have no issue with it.


    No Worries wrote:How so ? I would have thought the NRL would have nothing to do other than cashing in the cheque for the naming rights.

    No Worries is correct. NRL don't do anything on the technical side of fantasy.

    Chris Kennedy has mentioned on Twitter he doesn't know the pricing formula

    Ben Marlin
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    Post by Ben Marlin Tue Jan 21, 2020 12:54 pm

    Welshy wrote:
    maybe a few points underpriced if he plays pure edge and 80 but can find the same predicted output for less $$ from edge fantasy edge rowers which come along fairly regular

    Like I said if he plays middle, good value

    Fotuaika is a shout, if he gets minutes kid is a fucking monster, might be 6-10 points underpriced
    I think James is 6-10 points underpriced on the edge let alone the middle

    I agree that there’s better value in the 2nd row but there isn’t as much value in the front row which is where you would most likely be playing James.
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    Post by wolfking Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:00 pm

    rhinoceroo wrote:

    From memory he made plenty of money (because started so cheap) but didn't score great. Didn't help that he gave up six penalties a game.

    Yeah, maybe I'm confusing his money making potential that year with fantasy scores.
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    Post by my tv broke Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:03 pm

    Milchy wrote:




    No Worries is correct. NRL don't do anything on the technical side of fantasy.

    Chris Kennedy has mentioned on Twitter he doesn't know the pricing formula


    CK would say that though, to keep the twitter masses off his back Batman Suspect
    Mulvy
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    Post by Mulvy Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:25 pm

    Ryan James

    2015 Avg 40.5 from 19 games at 2nd row (mostly 80 min, removing his one injury game) five tries
    2016 Zero games starting from 2nd row. Avg 60.6 at prop.
    2017 Zero games starting from 2nd row. Avg 47.8 at prop.
    2018 Avg 44 from 5 games starting 2nd row, one try (one game was reduced minutes though)
    2019 First two rounds starting 2nd row for scores 25 and 42. Pretty sure he was rotated through the middle before being subbed off at 60 and 71 minutes respectively.

    So if playing middle he's value, if edge only some value but maybe not enough.
    robelgordo
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    Post by robelgordo Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:42 pm

    Milchy wrote:




    No Worries is correct. NRL don't do anything on the technical side of fantasy.

    Chris Kennedy has mentioned on Twitter he doesn't know the pricing formula


    Yeah but are fanhub responsible for the input data?

    I assumed they are relying on footy people for variables, or adjustment factors, for stuff like “Isaako is likely to change position and score more points”. Basically my assumption would be they are programmers/methodologists, but not subject matter expert enough to be tweaking prices. Although I guess they’d only need to contract one RL person on a PT basis to do that part as well.
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:47 pm

    Mulvy wrote:Ryan James

    2015 Avg 40.5 from 19 games at 2nd row (mostly 80 min, removing his one injury game) five tries
    2016 Zero games starting from 2nd row. Avg 60.6 at prop.
    2017 Zero games starting from 2nd row. Avg 47.8 at prop.
    2018 Avg 44 from 5 games starting 2nd row, one try (one game was reduced minutes though)
    2019 First two rounds starting 2nd row for scores 25 and 42. Pretty sure he was rotated through the middle before being subbed off at 60 and 71 minutes respectively.

    So if playing middle he's value, if edge only some value but maybe not enough.

    Sounds too risky to me to be starting with James.

    I've got Haas & Knight pencilled in as FRF with Carrigan on the bench (hopefully he starts at Lock for the Broncos and gets DPP)... that's more than enough money spent on the Front Row Cool
    No Worries
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    Post by No Worries Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:53 pm

    robelgordo wrote:

    Yeah but are fanhub responsible for the input data?

    I assumed they are relying on footy people for variables, or adjustment factors, for stuff like “Isaako is likely to change position and score more points”. Basically my assumption would be they are programmers/methodologists, but not subject matter expert enough to be tweaking prices. Although I guess they’d only need to contract one RL person on a PT basis to do that part as well.

    It's all data and stat driven. There's no NRL tragic on the books who works as a SME. Input likely team / average fullback Vs Average winger, up Isaako by the difference (among all the other variables). It's all formulaic
    KingTeddy
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    Post by KingTeddy Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:55 pm

    Who is everyone's 3 back rowers?
    StormTrooper96
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:55 pm

    Chewie wrote:

    Sounds too risky to me to be starting with James.

    I've got Haas & Knight pencilled in as FRF with Carrigan on the bench (hopefully he starts at Lock for the Broncos and gets DPP)... that's more than enough money spent on the Front Row Cool

    If Arrow stays in the GC this year that sounds like a very juicy FRF pack. Carrigan has had all the wraps this off season "Future Captain", "Great Leader" along with being bumped into the senior squad. The man is bound for more minutes.
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    Post by SandroTilocca Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:56 pm

    Lone Scout's comments RE the altering of player prices:

    "In reference to questions about price bumps for some players (eg B.Brailey), a few of the most obvious cash cows have had their prices increased based on their expected larger roles this season to encourage more variety among teams.

    It will make picking a starting squad more of a challenge, but nobody is really disadvantaged (the prices are the same for all Fantasy coaches after all).

    Brailey is still a bargain with a break even of about 27, he just won't be in 100% of Fantasy teams now "
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Tue Jan 21, 2020 1:59 pm

    KingTeddy wrote:Who is everyone's 3 back rowers?

    Too spoilt for choice to pick just three right now..

    So much value around;
    Garner
    D.Fifita
    Williams
    Stimson
    Lowe
    Su'a
    Tapine
    Crichton

    Then you have your usual suspects
    N.Brown
    Harris
    Murray
    RyMatt
    Tolo
    Bateman
    JFH
    Taupau

    I physically cannot pick 3 right now
    Chewie
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    Post by Chewie Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:01 pm

    StormTrooper96 wrote:

    If Arrow stays in the GC this year that sounds like a very juicy FRF pack. Carrigan has had all the wraps this off season "Future Captain", "Great Leader" along with being bumped into the senior squad. The man is bound for more minutes.

    Yeah I expect Carrigan to become one of the Fantasy must haves at the start of this season.
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    Post by StormTrooper96 Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:01 pm

    SandroTilocca wrote:Lone Scout's comments RE the altering of player prices:

    "In reference to questions about price bumps for some players (eg B.Brailey), a few of the most obvious cash cows have had their prices increased based on their expected larger roles this season to encourage more variety among teams.

    It will make picking a starting squad more of a challenge, but nobody is really disadvantaged (the prices are the same for all Fantasy coaches after all).

    Brailey is still a bargain with a break even of about 27, he just won't be in 100% of Fantasy teams now "

    I LOVE THIS! Means our starting squads will have maybe 4,5 even 6 different players instead of just 1 or 2 like most years. Love the variety and decision coaches will be now forced to make.

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