High Profile Players who will lose cash in round 1

With just 2 weeks till the comp starts, fantasy players are pulling their hair out trying to fit in enough guns under the salary cap.

  This years cap seems low in relation to the number of high priced players. The scenario is well positioned to have fantasy players crying after round 1 with many potential guns not making their break even scores. Fantasy players have no option but to search for cash cows  and mid range players, to fit under the cap.

So who are the  big name players who are going to lose value in round 1?

My top picks

1. Damien Cook 961k with a break even of 65.
  I have little doubt that cook will thrive under wayne's  coaching. But he is priced to perform at his peak for every game.  He will lose value in round 1.

2. Cameron Smith- how old is cam now? 45yo?  894k with a break even of 60. Another player who has to play to his peak in each game. Cam is a year older and with the golden trio now defunct . smith could do a  micro version of JT, playing 1 year too long.

3.Robbie Farrah- 826k- do I need to say any more?

4. Andrew Fifita- another year older, a huge frame  to carry after years of battering, and priced for peak performances @ 864k- will lose value in round 1.

5.Kalyn Ponga-784k with a break even of 53 is one of the most exposed to a value loss in round 1. Big positional changes  do not bode well initially and new combinations take a while to gel. I have no doubt Ponga  will end up as a star in the position due  to his talent. But he is priced based on his super year last year, at  fullback.

They are my top 5 value losers for round 1.Over to others for their thoughts.

In terms of players like these that should be guns for the whole season a minor price drop shouldn't really impact on your selection as the BE can still be toppled by a huge performance later on which then sparks a quick rise

I agree with above selections bar Fifita. He was hampered by injury throughout last year and will likely take a greater role on with Graham injured + Seumanufagai possibly leaving due to salary cap issues. With a BE of 58 on the site, it is only 0.3 above his 2018 average and against the Knights he will want to prove himself against their improved pack (especially Klemmer)

Post this in the main thread to generate discussion from others

While I like the concept, you've just listed the most expensive players. Only thing you do after the first round is "tip a cow". You aren't getting rid of a keeper because they didn't reach their BE round 1. A more constructive discussion would be who will lose money over the first 4 rounds then pick up, so you can pick up a keeper cheap. Heat early in the season and big forwards is a good example. So your 80 min guys or Fifita's might struggle

Ok no worries, so who are your picks to lose cash by round 4.?

BTW- kind of silly to state " you have just listed the most expensive players" is'nt that sort of the point?
These players are so highly priced they can do nothing but fall.

There is a case to be made for leaving out all 5 for the first couple of rounds . Pick 5 either potential cash cows or improvers in the mid range.

Ridge wrote:Ok no worries, so who are your picks to lose cash by round 4.?

BTW- kind of silly to state " you have just listed the most expensive players"   is'nt that sort of the point?
These players are  so highly priced they can do nothing but fall.

There is a case to be made for leaving out all 5 for the first couple of rounds . Pick 5 either  potential cash cows  or improvers in the mid range.

BTW- kind of silly to state " you have just listed the most expensive players"  

is'nt that sort of the point? BTW- kind of silly to state " you have just listed the most expensive players"   is'nt that sort of the point? Your thread not mine. If you are saying isn't it kind of silly to state the highest cost players will lose money then yes water is wet.


I think the likes of Fifita will lose money, but not enough to cause me to flick him over a cow that turned out to be a donkey.

Your thread not mine. If you are saying isn't it kind of silly to state the highest cost players will lose money then yes water is wet.




so no discussion , just pour water on the idea? Got it.

Ridge wrote:Your thread not mine. If you are saying isn't it kind of silly to state the highest cost players will lose money then yes water is wet.




so no discussion , just pour water on the idea? Got it.

No - saying that looking at 1 round is irrelevent for a keeper, that the first couple of rounds are spent expunging shit cows or long term injuries, so its 4 weeks before you start worrying about a keeper losing money

Essentially the discussion you are basing your initial question on is flawed

I like this idea for a conversation.
Cook. Ridiculously large season behind him and now has Noah for a coach, will lose money.
Smith. I'm not prepared to say he'll lose money just because of who he is, the pedigree is undeniable.
Farah. How'd he get to that price? He's losing money.
Fifita. Most forwards will lose money in the opening round but if there's one I'd bet on its Fifita, other tired forwards who are losing points are just targets for Fifita to run over.
Ponga like smith I won't be starting with but won't rule out.
If I had to add someone it'd be Taupau, new coach so minutes were not certain of plus a mammoth season that I doubt he can replicate

If you start with any of these players it is because you think they are season keepers and you thus don't give a shit if they loose money after round 1??
The only one I'm starting with is Fifi.