2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 45

Milchcow wrote:
Judging by all these Eels forwards trade ins, I take it people have given up on Brown ever returning

You’d think it would take a while until he is back to 70+ mins. Even so, looks like Ma’u and Terepo are favoured by Arthur over others. Mannah back after his eye socket fracture heals (another 3-4 weeks?)

Can't wait until Brown is back playing. I'll likely grab him over Jurbo for my bench because he plays with so much heart I feel like taking the next hit up when I'm watching him! haha He'll be cheap as chips 2-3 weeks after coming back too

Been looking at point differences in keeping my tier 2 2RF forwards like Kikau/JFH/RFM over getting in the tier 1s like JTurbo and getting my best team in now over more planning for the byes

using JTurbo as an example as he is the highest averaging 2RF

R12 - 56.6
R13 - Origin
R14 - 56.6
R15 - 56.6 
R16 - 56.6
R17 - Origin/Bye

Total - 226.4

Using JFH/Murray as an example as the lowest averaging out of the 3 mentioned above (JFH avg when playing his lock role is 46.6 vs Murray current avg 46.4) I'll use JFH as Murray avg minus R1 playing low minutes is 49.

R12 - 46.6
R13 - Bye
R14 - 46.6
R15 - 46.6
R16 - 46.6
R17 - 46.6

Total - 233

so even the lowest averaging upgrade targets will get more points than the highest averaging 2RF, so I can probably afford to wait until R18 to make that trade

The point does turn however, if I pick a 2RF target who is guarenteed to play one of the byes like Crichton, Taupau, Matterson

I'm just not sure I want Taupau because he has a habit of stringing huge scores then reverting back to around 52 come seasons end

Taupau scoring at current avg will go at the following

R12 - 56.5
R13 - 56.5
R14 - 56.5
R15 - 56.5
R16 - 56.5
R17 - BYE

Total - 282.5
plus Taupau is currently priced at 62 points (877,000/ 14,000 MN)

Crichton will go at 264.5
Matterson will go at 267.5

I reckon I would back Crichton to potentially improve on his current season average rather than Kapow maintaining

Further to the above

My main target for 2RF is THarris

season avg discounting his 1 injury affected game is 53.5 

making him the joint 4rd highest averaging 2RF tied with TLolo, Matterson and under only JTurbo, Kapow and Arrow

his current price is 659,000 for an average of 47, which is 6.5 points below his adjusted avg above

Total points total for R12-R17 is 267.5 following his adjusted average. 

Getting Tohu will be saving me $218,000 over Kapow for 15 less points... $113,000 over Crichton $121,000 over Matterson for the same points during this period.

This is all based on the above following there current of adjusted averages, over a 5 game period, could all come down to whoever bags a try or two and skyrocketing above their current averages over these next 6 weeks

my tv broke wrote:The problem with not owning Taupau is his ability to bust out another 100+ score.

He's been playing around 60 mins per game for the last month which is more than usual and his scores dont seem to be suffering..

That is my only worry for Taupau and the lack of forward options forcing him to stay playing the big minutes. 

He doesn't need them because he can go large at will but the extra 10 is always nice to avoid a low score which has produced plenty of times in the past when he doesn't get his offloads away early in the game.

I've just been burnt by Kapow twice paying overs on him

Very good welshy. Nice to see

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/nrl/teams/broncos/brisbane-close-to-dumping-wayne-bennett-and-signing-melbournes-craig-bellamy-on-a-fouryear-deal/news-story/7adb81c07160b29f306ec6e30733f414

I think I'm gonna pass out.

Welshy wrote:Been looking at point differences in keeping my tier 2 2RF forwards like Kikau/JFH/RFM over getting in the tier 1s like JTurbo and getting my best team in now over more planning for the byes

using JTurbo as an example as he is the highest averaging 2RF

Total - 226.4

Using JFH/Murray as an example as the lowest averaging out of the 3 mentioned above (JFH avg when playing his lock role is 46.6 vs Murray current avg 46.4) I'll use JFH as Murray avg minus R1 playing low minutes is 49.

Total - 233

so even the lowest averaging upgrade targets will get more points than the highest averaging 2RF, so I can probably afford to wait until R18 to make that trade

The point does turn however, if I pick a 2RF target who is guarenteed to play one of the byes like Crichton, Taupau, Matterson

I'm just not sure I want Taupau because he has a habit of stringing huge scores then reverting back to around 52 come seasons end

Taupau scoring at current avg will go at the following

Total - 282.5
plus Taupau is currently priced at 62 points (877,000/ 14,000 MN)

Crichton will go at 264.5
Matterson will go at 267.5

I reckon I would back Crichton to potentially improve on his current season average rather than Kapow maintaining

This is super helpful. Pain in the ass with Origin tbh. They need to do a stand alone series. 3 weeks straight SOO, with a four nation comp played at the same time culminating in an Aus vs top team in the 4th week... that way we know who's injured and who to pick up for fantasy haha

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Very good welshy. Nice to see

Had a bit of time to properly look at some bye planning this morning in work 

Due to the lack of bye friendly cheapies this week, I might just do the one trade of Lamb/Soro > Fonua.

Then downgrade the other next week.

I'm doing Soro to fonua @ LB and getting rid of lamb next week

SI wrote:My points are back to normal now so hopefully they have sorted the whole problem.

Boo! Thats no fun

Welshy wrote:Been looking at point differences in keeping my tier 2 2RF forwards like Kikau/JFH/RFM over getting in the tier 1s like JTurbo and getting my best team in now over more planning for the byes

using JTurbo as an example as he is the highest averaging 2RF

R12 - 56.6
R13 - Origin
R14 - 56.6
R15 - 56.6 
R16 - 56.6
R17 - Origin/Bye

Total - 226.4

Using JFH/Murray as an example as the lowest averaging out of the 3 mentioned above (JFH avg when playing his lock role is 46.6 vs Murray current avg 46.4) I'll use JFH as Murray avg minus R1 playing low minutes is 49.

R12 - 46.6
R13 - Bye
R14 - 46.6
R15 - 46.6
R16 - 46.6
R17 - 46.6

Total - 233

so even the lowest averaging upgrade targets will get more points than the highest averaging 2RF, so I can probably afford to wait until R18 to make that trade

The point does turn however, if I pick a 2RF target who is guarenteed to play one of the byes like Crichton, Taupau, Matterson

I'm just not sure I want Taupau because he has a habit of stringing huge scores then reverting back to around 52 come seasons end

Taupau scoring at current avg will go at the following

R12 - 56.5
R13 - 56.5
R14 - 56.5
R15 - 56.5
R16 - 56.5
R17 - BYE

Total - 282.5
plus Taupau is currently priced at 62 points (877,000/ 14,000 MN)

Crichton will go at 264.5
Matterson will go at 267.5

I reckon I would back Crichton to potentially improve on his current season average rather than Kapow maintaining

That all changes after Round 13 for Murray (but not JFH/Kikau) where he plays the same number of games as Jurbo and is a clear trade. Also, expecting him to average 46 off the bench is... optimistic. He got it last week but Sam got injured and they had a three forward bench - four this week and will be lucky to get 40 minutes without injuries.

I've had Harris from the start but the other massively underpriced 2nd bye player is Issac Luke. Averaging over 50 in games other than the two he got injured in but priced at under 40.

My points & rank are correct now.

Why am I so hesitant on Fonua, damn centres.

Surely he doesn't increase over 500k

Was nice being back inside the 100 now back out with the scores being fixed haha.