2018 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 28

pm888 wrote:murray hamstring may be 2 -4 weeks as @nrlphysio suggests. but he has confirmed he will miss this weeks game

Bah. Will hold. Makes Surgess very attractive next week if Murray still out.

Pookus McFly wrote:

Already done Douihi to JFH this week, which leaves 181k.
Could do Griffin to Koro or Matterson but I am worried about both of their minutes. Any less than 80 and they arn't keepers.
At least Mbye is a keeper if i move him back to WFB :/

Yup, I agree with that logic. I personally think that Matterson will be good for it this year and am looking at bringing him in, gamble i know but I like what I see. I dunno if I'll keep him tho either, am thinking I'll just use him as a points grab until I can upgrade him to a Jurbo or gun 2RF.

Thought about Gutho or Walker? Lower ownership than Mbye, cheaper and both also potential keepers for the same sort of numbers Mbye puts out. If you can wait a week to see how King Guth goes this week may give you a better idea.

Anthony Seibold has an article on NRL.com basically saying Reynolds played crap, and Doueihi outplayed him in 10 minutes of footy. If Reynolds doesn't lift he will have to do something.

Mearcats wrote:

See, this is the exact sort of open discussion I want to create. Why Wolfie? What is it that makes you think Arrow is a season keeper? Off an obviously small sample size so far we cannot realistically say it's because his form warrants it so we must be basing some of our thoughts about this on his play style and what we have seen from him thus far.

Hence my former question, what do we want to see from a player before we start labeling them as guns and keepers?

I look for consistency and potential. Want to know that my guys have a good base (fantasy wise), look involved/active/dangerous (more important for backs) and have a high ceiling (chance for big scores) or with no ceiling a promise towards high level consistency at keeper scores (i.e. general base stats (incl. -ves) support a min score of 45-50). Obviously the benchmarks change depending on the position and type of player but thats where I go.

As examples early in this season I see Arrow, Murray and JFH as guys I'm examining in this cut price potential keeper mould.

For me Arrow is shaping to be a keeper based on the following:

60 ish minutes per game
35 tackles / game
150m / game

Puts him at an easy 50 pts a game base which is a keeper to me in the FRF spot (probably not as a 2RF though)

The upside and what cements him as a keeper is his hard running which is good for TBs and his offload capability (Almost 2 each / game discrediting the TBs he got when scoring) . Not banking on tries but theres always a chance.

Will miss a few tackles (2/game) and maybe concede some penalties(1/game) but thats part of the game.

See him in a bad game at 40ish and his big games are Fifita esque. Good FRF Keeper and a borderline 2RF keeper.

JFH

65 mins a game at lock (Griffin makes me question this)
40 tackles / game
80m / game

Puts him at 48 pts base.

Really high tackle count in 2 previous games (50,41) compared to his first 3 (32, 26, 34) with an avg of 65 mins vs 52 mins.
Loves a missed tackle (3,7,2,3,3) - No Maloney but still not ideal
Doesn't give away penalties (0.4/game)
Not as strong a runner (1 OL and 1TB / game)
Don't see the attacking stats improving a lot (upside is limited)

So I see JFH as more of a 42-45 point player mainly due to the missed tackles and feel he's had some bigger games (i.e high tackle counts) that I don't think he'll keep up for a season. Add that Griffin is his coach and his rotation/s will never be as secure as you'd like as well as being a less attacking player (lower ceiling) in a higher scoring 2RF position I just see him being a 2nd tier option.

See him in a bad game at 25ish (see rd 2) and his big games are max 55 unless he bags a lucky try. He's not in the FRF where he'd be a "maybe but probably not" borderline Keeper and a mid tier 2RF guy.

He's making good cash though. 45 would put him at ~ 661k so hes a good cow and short term may belt out closer to 50 ~735k. If he proves me wrong over a few more weeks (while we ride his price rises) and I see some good consistency towards higher base stats (45 tackles + 100m) he'd be worth a closer look as someone I'd want in my 2RF at years end. Just don't see him there now but will pick him up

Murray

60 mins a game at lock
40 tackles / game
100m / game

50 points base

Less missed tackles (under 2/game) with strong TB (2+/game) potential. Always super involved.

See him more as a guy with a floor around 45-50 points a game with the chance to bust out 70s in the right gamescript. Maybe not a top tier keeper but close enough in the 2RF and was available for 500k to consider as a cheap keeper (Solid floor with moderate upside for a big game).

Sorry for the length but loved the topic idea

Edit: Need to thank MTB properly for his awesome site which lets me analyse any player I want like I did here. Great site

WT2K wrote:Was considering brining Hampton in for Doueihi, might still go it. Other options ive consider are terepo and goisk

Id like to see Terepo maintain the highs that make people watch him. He's started well and tapered off before.
I almost started the season with Gosiewski, to avoid a need to trade him in. At the minute though he doesnt look very productive, but he is cheap and may yet improve on the field.

@mearcats thanks for that mate. Yeah I was tossing up between Fifi and Jurbo at the start of the year so happy with that choice so far. Haven't really worked out a trade plan as yet but I have a bit of a wish list that includes SJ,Harris,Guth etc ideally RFM and Lodge can help me get SJ so I can move Mbye to my WFB. Thompson can hopefully keep up his form thus far and then after round 13 he will be gone(unless he starts going backwards before that) Hopefully JFH,Rochow and Kikau can kick on as they will be vital for cash building for the run home

Smith
Kikau, Lodge
Arrow, RFM, Rochow
DCE, Walker
Aitken, Hiku
Ponga, Teddy, Thompson

Cook, Griffin, Havili, Maloney
JMK, Kennar, Isaako, Murray

Might use my bank and try get a jump on.

Murray > JFH
Lodge > Fifita

Both straight into the 13 and Rochow moves down to take Maloneys place in 17.

Don't want to trade Murray but could be an opportunity.

Thoughts chaps?

wolfking wrote:

Bah.  Will hold.  Makes Surgess very attractive next week if Murray still out.

And Nichols who is redeeming himself slowly in most peoples emergencies

also word is that waqa blake will require surgery so out for at least 8 weeks. which is good for CHN's prospects

https://www.penrithpanthers.com.au/news/2018/04/11/injury-update-waqa-blake/

SI wrote:

I am playing with no fear this year! He can fuck right off and Cam can come right the fuck back





Please come back Cam, I'm sorry, you know you want the C!

Really, gone ? ... Curray right out the back door ?

Now I'm tempted to ditch Murray and hold Brown. Already holding Kodi until further notice.

I could handle having to bring JMK in to cover 1 injury, but now left with 1 of Isaako, Gosie or Croker for final bench spot.

I guess Isaako since someone keeps saying he's due and it's bound to be right eventually.

SI wrote:



Here's hoping, but more tgan likely AReyn comes out swinging for the next month.

But then we can all pick up Doueihi again at close to base price and ride good scores to more cash all over again.

Or just for the 1st time if you were like me and got scared cause of the lack of security and lack of clarity on Areyns return. Will be a good pickup with another game or 3 on the bench before a rabbits shakeup just in time for the first bye

Cap'n Ranta wrote:

I look for consistency and potential. Want to know that my guys have a good base (fantasy wise), look involved/active/dangerous (more important for backs) and have a high ceiling (chance for big scores) or with no ceiling a promise towards high level consistency at keeper scores (i.e. general base stats (incl. -ves) support a min score of 45-50). Obviously the benchmarks change depending on the position and type of player but thats where I go.

As examples early in this season I see Arrow, Murray and JFH as guys I'm examining in this cut price potential keeper mould.

For me Arrow is shaping to be a keeper based on the following:

60 ish minutes per game
35 tackles / game
150m / game

Puts him at an easy 50 pts a game base which is a keeper to me in the FRF spot (probably not as a 2RF though)

The upside and what cements him as a keeper is his hard running which is good for TBs and his offload capability (Almost 2 each / game discrediting the TBs he got when scoring) . Not banking on tries but theres always a chance.

Will miss a few tackles (2/game) and maybe concede some penalties(1/game) but thats part of the game.

See him in a bad game at 40ish and his big games are Fifita esque. Good FRF Keeper and a borderline 2RF keeper.

JFH

65 mins a game at lock (Griffin makes me question this)
40 tackles / game
80m / game

Puts him at 48 pts base.

Really high tackle count in 2 previous games (50,41) compared to his first 3 (32, 26, 34) with an avg of 65 mins vs 52 mins.
Loves a missed tackle (3,7,2,3,3) - No Maloney but still not ideal
Doesn't give away penalties (0.4/game)
Not as strong a runner (1 OL and 1TB / game)
Don't see the attacking stats improving a lot (upside is limited)

So I see JFH as more of a 42-45 point player mainly due to the missed tackles and feel he's had some bigger games (i.e high tackle counts) that I don't think he'll keep up for a season. Add that Griffin is his coach and his rotation/s will never be as secure as you'd like as well as being a less attacking player (lower ceiling) in a higher scoring 2RF position I just see him being a 2nd tier option.

See him in a bad game at 25ish (see rd 2) and his big games are max 55 unless he bags a lucky try. He's not in the FRF where he'd be a "maybe but probably not" borderline Keeper and a mid tier 2RF guy.

He's making good cash though. 45 would put him at ~ 661k so hes a good cow and short term may belt out closer to 50 ~735k. If he proves me wrong over a few more weeks (while we ride his price rises) and I see some good consistency towards higher base stats (45 tackles + 100m) he'd be worth a closer look as someone I'd want in my 2RF at years end. Just don't see him there now but will pick him up

Murray

60 mins a game at lock
40 tackles / game
100m / game

50 points base

Less missed tackles (under 2/game) with strong TB (2+/game) potential. Always super involved.

See him more as a guy with a floor around 45-50 points a game with the chance to bust out 70s in the right gamescript. Maybe not a top tier keeper but close enough in the 2RF and was available for 500k to consider as a cheap keeper (Solid floor with moderate upside for a big game).

Sorry for the length but loved the topic idea

Great piece mate! Never really thought to look at it like this

Since I have no patience both Brown & Murray can leave my team. They can come back before round 13 depending on how well they come back after their injuries.

I think selling Murray now is selling low.
NRL.com still has him maybe playing this week, and it's totally reasonable to think he'll be back next week.

I'm definitely holding.

SI wrote:

When I traded Carty I felt I should have held; same feeling with Doohickey and too many other fires to put out at the moment, haha.

Holding Douehi is super tempting but it could backfire.

Its really hard to decide who to turf in my side.. haha

I could actually trade Isaako and Havili to Tedesco and Gosie.. holding Douehy in the process..