2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 15

@Warriors not overpriced if they play above their avg from last year but A LOT of sense In that write up, well said mate

I know it has been asked a few times but its the only real trade i need to do this week besides phythian to suli.

Going cash grab on the basis of while it will cost me 2 trades in jbrom to get him back later, the cash it produces plus the extra cow will save me at least 2 trades later. So realistically trade wise i am no worse off and might be better.

So question is. Matagi or Frankenstein for jbrom

Welshy wrote:@Warriors not overpriced if they play above their avg from last year but A LOT of sense In that write up, well said mate

Yeah I understand mate, JDB was priced at 59 average but now at 62 which is probably about where he will average, so unless you don't have faith in smith and Fifita to score around the same as captaincy options I don't see the added benefit of trading him in for guys making money unless you think he will average a lot more than the 62 he is priced at now for the rest of the year. He will have some quiet games (head knocks, injuries also come into play) and he will have some huge games too, but he won't have many more 27 point plays this season. Maybe 1 or 2 more

Showbags wrote:I know it has been asked a few times but its the only real trade i need to do this week besides phythian to suli.

Going cash grab on the basis of while it will cost me 2 trades in jbrom to get him back later, the cash it produces plus the extra cow will save me at least 2 trades later. So realistically trade wise i am no worse off and might be better.

So question is. Matagi or Frankenstein for jbrom

I'd be very surprised if either of these guys scored 35+ for the rest of the season. Would probably go matagi just but surely there are better options?

Welshy wrote:Interesting

Updated Roosters team list have Issac Liu dropping off bench....

15. Kane Evans
16. Ryan Matterson
17. Conor Watson
18. Chris Smith
19. Jo Manu
23. Zane Tetevano

I mentioned to a mate yesterday that I thought Tetevano would get a crack this week after his blinder on the weekend. Thought he would come in for Watson not Liu

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

I mentioned to a mate yesterday that I thought Tetevano would get a crack this week after his blinder on the weekend. Thought he would come in for Watson not Liu

Smith is a wide forward ain't he? I'd pick Tetevano to stick on that bench surely with only Evans there! If it's Smith surely that means 60 mins min from JWH

Gents,
Great site. Just keeps getting better . Keep it up.
Need trade advice? Team is -
Smith, Brailey(r)
Fifita, DSaf, IPap,Yates
Surgess, JDB, KBrom, Siro (r) ,Smat (r), FKaufusi(r)
Norman, Lamb, Elgey, Field
Talakai, Moga , Kelly, Idris
RTS, Hayne, TTurbo, Cotric, Python.
807 last round. 8k itb. Question is do I trade? Feel I am missing a trick, obvious choice is to can DSaf for Walkace or Musgrave maybe or any suggestions ? Should I get Field out ? May trade Python next week or should he go? Comments very welcome.

With Phythian replaced by Elliot I'm hoping Lamb's kicking metres will be back to "normal" this week.

Last year (albeit only played 3 games) Lamb averaged 40% of his points from Kick Metres - in Round 1 with Phythian taking on some of the kicking he had to rely on attacking stats to get a decent score..

Here's hoping he can keep those attacking stats up and add the KMs!

So I decided to look into the merits of why it's not worth jumping on a mid ranger after a huge score to ride them to a gun.

Lets start with Joel Thompson. On the back of a 3 try 92 point performance he jumped 44k on starting price. Safe to say that isn't happening again. But what happens if he averages 30? His historical average of 40? A 10 point jump to 50?

Here are some numbers:

5 weeks at 30 points- 21k jump week 1 then slow decline to less than starting price week 5 at 370k. Will be less than current purchase price of 420k by week 4 where he will hit 400k.

5 weeks at 40 points- 29k jump week 1, 11k jump week 2, slow decline to 430k by week 5.

5 weeks at 50 points- 37k jump week 1, 23k jump week 2, 12k jump week 3, peak week 4 at 494k, decline starts week 5

Now lets look at Keary. 2 try 72 point performance last week. Historical average is 32

5 weeks at 22 points- 12k jump week 1 then slow decline to less than starting price week 5

5 weeks at 32 points- 20k jump week 1, 7k jump week 2, slow decline to 340k week 5 which is 4k above current price

5 weeks at 42 points- 28k jump week 1, 19k jump week 2, 12k jump week 3, peak week 4 at 401k, decline starts week 5


TL;DR you have already missed their big price jump that came with scoring tries. Unless you think they have become significantly better scorers this year(even 10 points doesn't seem worth it) it isn't worth the double trade

Welshy wrote:
Smith is a wide forward ain't he? I'd pick Tetevano to stick on that bench surely with only Evans there! If it's Smith surely that means 60 mins min from JWH

Primarily plays second row centre but has spent time at lock in juniors aswell. I think our pack loses some go forward without Liu so would almost definitely be Tetevano

websterpa67 wrote:Gents,
Great site. Just keeps getting better . Keep it up.
Need trade advice? Team is -
Smith, Brailey(r)
Fifita, DSaf, IPap,Yates
Surgess, JDB, KBrom,  Siro (r) ,Smat (r), FKaufusi(r)
Norman, Lamb, Elgey, Field
Talakai, Moga , Kelly, Idris
RTS, Hayne, TTurbo, Cotric, Python.  
807 last round. 8k itb. Question is do I trade? Feel I am missing a trick, obvious choice is to can DSaf for Walkace or Musgrave maybe or any suggestions ? Should I get Field out ? May trade Python next week or should he go? Comments very welcome.

Well done. Good looking squad and most of the players you have covered
Looks a logical move Saifiti and Python to Wallace and Suli

Welshy wrote:
Fair enough

Just you said you were getting rid because he scored 19 and it couldn't be overlooked, If Wallace scores 25 this week will you trade him out next week?

Why are you making me want to possibly give Saifiti another week?

I'm looking at the Saifiti->Wallace trade also. Wallace played big minutes, but looks like it will continue. Saifiti I think will only be a 40 point player and his brother was lightyears better on the field. The other thing that makes me want to do the trade is the bench. Both benches scream that Wallace will be getting more minutes over Saifiti. Too much competition for Saifiti compared to Wallace at them moment.

B

wolfking wrote:

Why are you making me want to possibly give Saifiti another week?

I'm looking at the Saifiti->Wallace trade also.  Wallace played big minutes, but looks like it will continue.  Saifiti I think will only be a 40 point player and his brother was lightyears better on the field.  The other thing that makes me want to do the trade is the bench.  Both benches scream that Wallace will be getting more minutes over Saifiti.  Too much competition for Saifiti compared to Wallace at them moment.

Stay true to ya guns wolfking, it just makes sense.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

Primarily plays second row centre but has spent time at lock in juniors aswell. I think our pack loses some go forward without Liu so would almost definitely be Tetevano

Could still mean big minutes for JWH then he has played 60 a fair few times and would help the transition to JBrom. I'm surprised Liu has dropped off mind

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:B

Stay true to ya guns wolfking, it just makes sense.

In giving him another crack or trading him?

wolfking wrote:

Why are you making me want to possibly give Saifiti another week?

I'm looking at the Saifiti->Wallace trade also.  Wallace played big minutes, but looks like it will continue.  Saifiti I think will only be a 40 point player and his brother was lightyears better on the field.  The other thing that makes me want to do the trade is the bench.  Both benches scream that Wallace will be getting more minutes over Saifiti.  Too much competition for Saifiti compared to Wallace at them moment.

Don't get me wrong I'm all for trading him if the reason is right and there is a good alternative. I'm dumping him for Musgrove, it nets me $90,000 and I think he can score similarly, Musgrove also has quality byes.

Welshy wrote:
Don't get me wrong I'm all for trading him if the reason is right and there is a good alternative. I'm dumping him for Musgrove, it nets me $90,000 and I think he can score similarly, Musgrove also has quality byes.

Already have Musgrove, but he's a great pickup for Saifiti If there was a rookie front rower, I'd probably get them instead, but I also think that Wallace could become a handy 18th man for the year if he keeps going well. Looking at Matagi also, but don't really trust him.

websterpa67 wrote:Gents,
Great site. Just keeps getting better . Keep it up.
Need trade advice? Team is -
Smith, Brailey(r)
Fifita, DSaf, IPap,Yates
Surgess, JDB, KBrom,  Siro (r) ,Smat (r), FKaufusi(r)
Norman, Lamb, Elgey, Field
Talakai, Moga , Kelly, Idris
RTS, Hayne, TTurbo, Cotric, Python.  
807 last round. 8k itb. Question is do I trade? Feel I am missing a trick, obvious choice is to can DSaf for Walkace or Musgrave maybe or any suggestions ? Should I get Field out ? May trade Python next week or should he go? Comments very welcome.

First trade would be dsaif for Wallace then pick one of field to jacks or Pythian to suli. Not sure if you have enough cash but maybe

Welshy wrote:
Could still mean big minutes for JWH then he has played 60 a fair few times and would help the transition to JBrom. I'm surprised Liu has dropped off mind

This bench has surprised me a bit too. And it has somewhat helped my brain start leaning away from going JWH - Gubb....

wolfking wrote:

In giving him another crack or trading him?

Sell him