2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 7

Welshy wrote:

I'll take the (heavily in your favour) bet

I should hope so, I'm suprised to hear you say its in my favour, sounded to me like most people feel Teddy was a better draft choice... but I'll take it. So whats the bet? All off season avatar? Name change? Do we include finals or not?

I hope Kaufusi gets DPP before rd 1. It helps with my structure to pick him in the second row, easy swap out for KBrom (and gives 120k). I've got Kennedy in at 2RF for now coz he's 207k.

On DSaifiti - I've been considering him too. I don't see him as a LAM 2.0 since he's got a lot of work cut out for him, whereas LAM had people around him that I thought could take away minutes/work. Saifiti has a nice 45.8 average for his last 5 which is encouraging. I've got 3 mid price forwards atm, Saifiti isn't one of them but he could make my team come rd 1. I'm not completely sold with JWH.

Also another pick I've got... Gutherson. I'm wondering if he has no value at all. I mean he is playing in the halves now, but he did last year too without Norman. You could argue he's correctly priced or even inflated a bit. His byes are great and so is his DPP, but at 345k I might be better off trying to get Teddy in; or perhaps run with Holmes who may become elite.

Another player I'm ruminating over is Konrad Hurrell. Injury prone, inconsistent, variable fitness... yes those concerns are real. But his point scoring ability is tempting, had a decent run home after starting the season with 12, 6, 8 and 20. I'm not so sure I can run 4 cheap centres; so I've been thinking of back up plans there. I could move Mata'utia from 2RF to centre, but if not I might have to look at Hurrell. Or Whare.

Bren wrote:Whats everyone going to do if Hayne doesnt play round 1?

I think it's safe to play Phythlan or Ponga. Both should be relatively popular picks. And I don't think many are starting without Hayne.

Archer wrote:
I should hope so, I'm suprised to hear you say its in my favour, sounded to me like most people feel Teddy was a better draft choice... but I'll take it. So whats the bet? All off season avatar? Name change? Do we include finals or not?

Don't try and twist it or I will revoke the bet

Tedesco only misses 1 extra match so no real advantage to me actually

Highest points total at Round 26.

You decide the losing consequence.

Welshy wrote:

Don't try and twist it or I will revoke the bet

Tedesco only misses 1 extra match so no real advantage to me actually

Highest points total at Round 26.

You decide the losing consequence.

Alright, I'll let you keep the name (Although the thoughts of "Pom" or something were very tempting) as I want people to easily recognise who lost the bet. What about an avatar bet from the end of Rd 26 till the GF, with the addition that the loser also has to say something about why Archer/Welshy is better than Archer/Welshy each of those weeks?

edited. what you think?

@Archer

check out the edited post? Does that take to your betting fancy?

Hah! Ok done.

 I really should get more creative like putting a draft priority (giving it up if you end up ahead of the other guy) on the line, or getting one of those fancy tags that we use for fantasy winners and such with "Lost to Archer" but the season is just getting started i guess.

Welshy wrote:

agree could become a keeper mate plus DPP definate plus this year

My point in this debate was that you were discounting some picks without backing them up with stats or basic theory

DSaifiti is in a lot of teams and was blagged for struggling his way to 40. Yet in the second half of the season he hit over 50 twice without a try last year with a 52 in 56 minutes and a 58 in 46 minutes so well capable and only priced at 36 points

Had no idea that was your point. Bit harsh!

I've done a pre season spreadsheet for pricing value for nearly all of the 10 or 11 seasons I've been playing this game so disappointing the first year I have a 5week old baby and don't bring stats to the table I'm called out.

Everyone on here is working off the same sheets these days anyway so I don't think there's any harm from the occasional person just calling it as they see it from watching matches

Only have to ask ST or Si or DK or any old head about the sort of shit smart elephant and I used to play around with to suggest some past performances were backed up by more than guesses!

You do get the last laugh in that my recent form since moving to the Isle of Man 5years ago has been horrendous so cue massive season for D Saifiti and mediocrity from McGuire

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Ditched Hodgson and picked up Luke.

reasoning?


because I am lovin hodgson

Is it already mentioned that Simona might be banned from NRL? sport betting

sets wrote:Is it already mentioned that Simona might be banned from NRL? sport betting

Rumour has it he was betting on his opposite markers to score trys.

Tsk tsk tsk

How motivated is Gallen going to be to play hard for an entire season given that hes in the twilight years of his career and he now has his premiership. Id rather him or JDB(whos priced at a premium) instead of Surgess but yeah i just don't know.

Scouter wrote:How motivated is Gallen going to be to play hard for an entire season given that hes in the twilight years of his career and he now has his premiership. Id rather him or JDB(whos priced at a premium) instead of Surgess but yeah i just don't know.

Toughnone. I was all over an originless gallen but now wandering if should hedge/spread cover, if already owning fifita.

Surgess and Gallen losing their DPP this year is a bit of a bummer

I'd love to own JDB. Looks a modern day monster but playing a double gun hooker team at the moment so can't afford. I feel I've always been burnt when I try play a cheap backup hooker

Feline wrote:

See the last comment about Ponga / Phythian.

As for Elgey I am not convinced Elgey is even close to a must have.

Hampton as a bench hooker may make a small amount of cash, but his real value is when Origin kicks in and he plays 4 or 5 games starting. No need to waste a trade as he is already in the team. Don't really need him before then.

Hampton as a bench hooker will probably lose cash.

He is overpriced in that regard due to some full games at centre.

His fantasy scores as bench utility are terrible

superbucks wrote:

I think it's safe to play Phythlan or Ponga. Both should be relatively popular picks. And I don't think many are starting without Hayne.

Winterstein is due back round 2 last I read.

How long before Ponga gets game 2 (if he even starts ahead of Javid Bowen round 1)

Milchcow wrote:

Winterstein is due back round 2 last I read.

How long before Ponga gets game 2 (if he even starts ahead of Javid Bowen round 1)

Or GGM

superbucks wrote:
Also another pick I've got... Gutherson. I'm wondering if he has no value at all. I mean he is playing in the halves now, but he did last year too without Norman. You could argue he's correctly priced or even inflated a bit. His byes are great and so is his DPP, but at 345k I might be better off trying to get Teddy in; or perhaps run with Holmes who may become elite.

Gutherson was talked about a fair bit a few weeks ago.

He is priced at 36.5. His average in the halves is 43. That was paired with Jeff Robson though, its yet to be seen how playing with Norman will effect him. 
Corey Norman is a big kicker of the ball so Gutherson may lose some of his 6 kick metre points a game. On the plus side he has goal kicking duties so will gain a few points there.

So basically as long as he does some general play kicking, he looks a pretty good bet.

rhinoceroo wrote:A) Norman + Gutherson (wfb) + Elgey

or

B) Tedesco + Sezer + Sironen

B