by wolfking Tue Feb 07, 2017 9:35 pm
Random wrote:
Quick breakdown
HOK: Outside of attacking stats I don't necessarily see Koro making a big amount of cash or stepping to the next level in terms of fantasy. He could end up averaging 5 or so points higher than what he is priced at but I think you are simply investing in a mid-tier guy at a mid-tier price. Just too much of a cost investment for essentially a small amount of a reward.
FRF: How many minutes is J. Wallace going to get. Last season when he played more than 40 minutes (Discounting the game he scored a try) he averaged a PPM of 0.75ppm. This means he will need 40 minutes on average to keep up his current price tag. However 60 minutes will see him push around 45 points a game, which is a decent upgrade. My problem is I don't see him getting 60 minutes. The Titans have 3 backrowers capable of playing a large amount of minutes. (Though Pulu will earn himself a spot in the 2RF rotation.) He will have Ryan James starting alongside him. The person he is replacing averaged 40 minutes last season (Luke Douglas). I think at best he averages 50 minutes and outside of scoring tries it should bump his score by around 7 points. It makes it a hard pick to justify for mine. Although if you think he will average 60 minutes then he is definitely a solid buy. Daniel Safiti is interesting, if he can push for more minutes this season he is capable of scoring well. He had a PPM of 0.9 last season and only went over 1ppm 3 times and only 1 try in the game. So the guy looks to have solid base stats to keep up the PPM. The only issue is he does seem to miss tackles now and then. Almost 2 per game, but that is something after a full year he may have improved on. With all the changes to the Knights forward pack (Sims brothers departing, Pauli Pauli injury, Robbie Rochow leaving. It opens the door for him to play 50-60 minutes which could result on a score of 40 - 55 point average. (Note: I did what I think is the absolute worst he would score on average under those minutes and what is the best he can look to achieve consistently.) I also think there is no risk as it is likely he will get at least 50 minutes and it is very unlikely his PPM drops below 0.75PPM from his stellar 0.9PPM. Which even with a significant drop wouldn't make him lose cash. Will Tetevano play? They have Carter, Liu, and Evans all presumably above him in the pecking order for a Bench spot and then if they decide to run with a Utility there may not be room on that bench. Also how long is Taukeiaho out for? Either way he is a rookie, if he is named round 1 he is worth a pick up.
2RF: Klemmer for mine isn't a workhorse 2RF and will be heavily relying on consistent amount of TB's. A bump in minutes could definitely be likely for him, just for mine I don't like the pick but I can see there is potential value in his selection.
HLF: Moses is an interesting pick. He can be really inconsistent but if he comes out firing to start the year you could see a similar run of form as Mbye had last year. Definitely a guy who could string together a couple 70+ games with a few other high scores to skyrocket his price, and make an easy stepping stone to some of the cheaper and more consistent guns. It is a risk, that has great potential to pay off for you. I am coming around to Lamb more and more. The bloke just likes to kick the ball. I don't believe Mullen's results are back as of yet, but if he is out of the competition and Hodkinson is still struggling with the injury as reported then Lamb becomes an exciting prospect. Very similar to someone like Norman who does like 90% of the kicking in his team. The only concern would be Hodkinson sticking around and taking some of those KM off of him. However that is a small risk considering he is priced below what his lowest score was last season.
CTR: Starting big with a big BJ. Nice.
WFB: Nothing really different than anyone else this season. Though you are opting for Uate and as am I. Hoping he strings together a handful of games to make a sizable profit.
Overall: You are talking about moving Moses out for Morts. Personally I would move out Koro for Morts. However I am guessing you are basing that off consistency in which case perhaps a different HLF as well could be a decent option for yourself. That is really the only things I would look at in your squad at changing at this stage. Also FWIW I will chuck up the G. Burgess write up to help you decide whether to grab him.
It was stated earlier during the preseason that George Burgess is over the niggling injury he carried throughout last season. However there have been conflicting reports on this, so trail games are essential to gauge where he is at with his injury. If he continues to carry the niggle throughout another season who could very well stay priced exactly where he is at. On the other hand this is a guy who is capable of scoring 60 points off the bench comfortably as he breaks tackles at will. Now he has always been an up and down, somewhat inconsistent player, however it would average out over the year. Last season he averaged 31 points with a niggling injury and before that he averaged 50 points (2015) 49 points (2014) and 48 points (2013). So there is every reason to believe last season was an outlier in a Rabbitohs outfit that had a poor season as a whole. If he is past his injury he should be able to score extremely well no matter the minutes he gets, starting or interchange.
Thanks Random. This writeup would have taken longer than I took picking this team haha. Interesting views on Koro that I really didn't think of. Was just thinking with Parcell gone, he could be an 80 minute hooker depending on LBrown. He can score tries and is a bit of a workhorse, but swapping to Morts and having that money to splash elsewhere is tempting.
Wasn't really keen on JWallace, as I don't think he'll get the minutes, not right away anyhow. I am warming to Gurgess after reading that article today too. Blake from Manly is another. Saifiti has the potential, but we'll see come round 1. Again, was lukewarm on the Klemmer pick, just for the reasons you mentioned. Was just an out of field option I was looking at.
Definitely looking at a gamble with Moses but not many halves really doing it for me, but might upgrade if I do get extra cash. I think Lamb is a good pick if I do say so myself. I think Elgey could be good enough to warrant a starting spot too.
Thumbs up too by the way.
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