2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 4

Honey Badger wrote:

Same here.
The only way it would work for me is if morts is also named as 80 min hooker then i'll have him as one of my halves and king as my second hooker.
If king does bomb out i can move morts to hooker and bring in a cheap half.

I would prefer Ballin if going for a cheap hooker. Less injury history and has shown ability to actually produce fantasy scores in the past

Pookus McFly wrote:I felt disgusted with myself for finding a spot for Sironen in my team, so I decided to look at his stats for last year to convince myself out of him. It only made him seem more viable a choice! Somebody find me some older stats and tell me how wrong I am! The Sironen trap... it's so bright and wonderful... I can't unsee! Somebody help me!

I had a look at the stats yesterday. Averages of 37,34, 32 when playing 80 in the backrow the last 3 years

multiple.scoregasms wrote:
I had a look at the stats yesterday. Averages of 37,34, 32 when playing 80 in the backrow the last 3 years

But the problem is that he is priced at 27, so there is actually pretty good value if he hits close to those scores.

2016 stats:
Ignoring the linebreak and try in round 1.
Round 1: 42 points (71 mins)
Round 2: 3 points (10 mins- hamstring injury)
Round 6: 28 points (48 mins)
Round 7: 44 points (77 mins)
Round 8: 30 points (80 mins)
Round 9: 31 points (80 mins)
Round 10: 24 points (39 mins)
Round 25: 5 points (6 mins)

Priced at 27 points. Probably only needs 60 mins to be good value, will probably get 75-80.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:
I had a look at the stats yesterday. Averages of 37,34, 32 when playing 80 in the backrow the last 3 years

Looking at only 80 minute backrow performances will be misleading. Even if he starts he won't play 80 every week so you'll be copping the good with the bad.
Its OK to ignore obviously injury affected games, but discounting games where he plays 60 minutes will just paint a rosier picture than what is the likely reality.

His starting backrow average over the past 4 years is low to mid 30s.

Priced at just under 26, so if he starts and stays injury free you can expect a 6-8 point increase on base price.

Problem is that, unless he improves on recent years he won't score high enough to be in your 17, and isn't cheap enough to be terribly useful as a cashcow NPR.

The plus side is that Sironen has been performing well under potential the last couple of years (in reality as well as fantasy). There is certainly capacity to improve there if Manly figure out how to get the best out of him.

Going from 1 trap to another. With Robinson talking up watson for the utility role, thoughts on the black widow? What average is he priced at?

Showbags wrote:Going from 1 trap to another. With Robinson talking up watson for the utility role, thoughts on the black widow? What average is he priced at?

Aubo's priced at a 37.5 average. I'd still be a little weary of him because Watson is a bit too small to be playing centre reliably but he's filled in at fullback before so he could be the new man to slot in for backline injuries. I think Aubo's a good choice personally and I'd put him in if it wasn't for the fact Sione Mata'utia is much cheaper as a potential keeper centre.

Keep your eye on Ryan Matterson though. I don't think Robbo will run with 2 bench utilities but Matterson is a really good player, can and has played 80 in the back-row plus he did well filling in at centre so he's the new Aubo essentially. If he also makes the bench then you wouldn't need to worry because Matterson's the new Mr Fix It

Black Widow priced at 37.5

Starting 2nd row average 42.6

Like always he is a tempting prospect. With SST out for an extended period with ACL and Guerra not preferred last year, there is a good chance for Aubbs to nail down a 2nd row spot.

Just have to watch out as if Ferguson/other goes down with injury he could be straight back into the fantasy death of centreland

Lots of people with Norman or Gutherson in their teams. I think both have a good case for fantasy selection.

Anyone tempted to double up and get both of them?


Parra have good byes, and its not unprecedented for double halves to be a good fantasy move. I remember Aidan Sezer and Albert Kelly being a good double act back in 2013. Just checked stats and they averaged 43 and 52 respectively and were both available cheap to start the year. With Gutherson available in WFB it helps ease the risk of stacking halves too

Milchcow wrote:Lots of people with Norman or Gutherson in their teams. I think both have a good case for fantasy selection.

Anyone tempted to double up and get both of them?


Parra have good byes, and its not unprecedented for double halves to be a good fantasy move. I remember Aidan Sezer and Albert Kelly being a good double act back in 2013. Just checked stats and they averaged 43 and 52 respectively and were both available cheap to start the year. With Gutherson available in WFB it helps ease the risk of stacking halves too

Sutton and ARyn use to knock about with high scores when they played in the halves together too

Milchcow wrote:Lots of people with Norman or Gutherson in their teams. I think both have a good case for fantasy selection.

Anyone tempted to double up and get both of them?


Parra have good byes, and its not unprecedented for double halves to be a good fantasy move. I remember Aidan Sezer and Albert Kelly being a good double act back in 2013. Just checked stats and they averaged 43 and 52 respectively and were both available cheap to start the year. With Gutherson available in WFB it helps ease the risk of stacking halves too

I have thought about and will see if I can fit both in. I ran with Sezer and Kelly and it really paid off.

halves usually fire up when there are big scores and parras backline looks nice this year. plenty of speed

also who kicks now gordon is gone? nice if norman does, but maybe takarangi?

How many points above a players priced average must they score in order to make say 100k?

pm888 wrote:halves usually fire up when there are big scores and parras backline looks nice this year. plenty of speed

also who kicks now gordon is gone? nice if norman does, but maybe takarangi?

All signs point to Gutherson getting first crack.

Spectre wrote:How many points above a players priced average must they score in order to make say 100k?

1 point  = $9475

So 10 points above priced average will be just shy of $100k

Milch can you find NSW cup stats anywhere from last year? I can find them but Cam King is worth checking out as BA wanted to play him last year but due to salary cap and being on 2nd teir contract he couldnt select him, thats why King was re-signed.

If he played most of the NSW cup season then thats at least trending up on the injury front

Milchcow wrote:

1 point  = $9475

So 10 points above priced average will be just shy of $100k

Alright sweet good to know.

Thank you good sir.

Shanbon wrote:Milch can you find NSW cup stats anywhere from last year? I can find them but Cam King is worth checking out as BA wanted to play him last year but due to salary cap and being on 2nd teir contract he couldnt select him, thats why King was re-signed.

If he played most of the NSW cup season then thats at least trending up on the injury front

Found this from 2015 but not sure if they published anything in 2016.

http://www.nswrl.com.au/content/dam/nswrl/documents/Round%2023_Leader%20Board.pdf


Initial google-fu can't see anything

Johnny B Goode wrote:

Aubo's priced at a 37.5 average. I'd still be a little weary of him because Watson is a bit too small to be playing centre reliably but he's filled in at fullback before so he could be the new man to slot in for backline injuries. I think Aubo's a good choice personally and I'd put him in if it wasn't for the fact Sione Mata'utia is much cheaper as a potential keeper centre.

Keep your eye on Ryan Matterson though. I don't think Robbo will run with 2 bench utilities but Matterson is a really good player, can and has played 80 in the back-row plus he did well filling in at centre so he's the new Aubo essentially. If he also makes the bench then you wouldn't need to worry because Matterson's the new Mr Fix It

I would love Matterson to nail down a spot in the team, be it centre or backrow. Don't think he is a shot at round 1 but probably first man up for injuries suspension. Probably line up like this round 1

8.JWH
9.Friend
10.Napa
11.Cordner
12.Aubbo
13.Carter
14.Watson
15.Liu
16.Evans
17.Guerra

By the end of the year I would like to see:

1.Mitchell
2.SKD
3.Fergo
4.Matterson
5.Gordon
6.Watson
7.Pearce
8.JWH
9.Friend
10.Napa
11.Cordner
12.Aubbo
13.Tauk
14.Carter
15.Evans
16.Liu
17.Guerra

Milchcow wrote:Lots of people with Norman or Gutherson in their teams. I think both have a good case for fantasy selection.

Anyone tempted to double up and get both of them?


Parra have good byes, and its not unprecedented for double halves to be a good fantasy move. I remember Aidan Sezer and Albert Kelly being a good double act back in 2013. Just checked stats and they averaged 43 and 52 respectively and were both available cheap to start the year. With Gutherson available in WFB it helps ease the risk of stacking halves too

I currently have Norman in the halves as Gutherson as 3rd WFB. Keep swapping between Gutherson, Slater and Vidot for that last WFB spot