NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 25 - Take it to the betting thread you degenerates

Mulvy wrote:

Wait he can sing too???!!!

Seriously though, Hynes would be straight into my team if it were not for the R6 bye.

I am aiming to punt Carty to Hynes for R7.

This week I will bring in Cleary because I am sick and tired of my failed Capt roulette.

on the egan discussion i would be always nervous if i owned him because every game he either gets a hia or injured...he's a great fantasy player but risky imo

I was looking at I Katoa pre-TLT
I'm not likely to go that way this week (but probably will soon thereafter).

Anyway, here's a statistical breakdown on what to expect from five-eighth scoring, and whether Isaiya Katoa is still worth picking up (for the handful who don't have him);

I looked through all the main 6's from last year, and broke them down into approx PPM scoring (to adjust for a few lower minute players in the 60-70 min range; Gamble, C Harris, Amone).

The five-eighth fantasy tiers;

Tier 1 - Elite; 0.77 PPM
Munster - averaged 62, lower quartile average of 52, upper of 76, what can you say.


Tier 2 - Good; ~0.60 PPM
Burton - 50 avg
Wighton - 47 avg
AJ Brimson - 47 avg (at 6)
All have lower quartiles around 37, Burton a good upper of 63 compared to Wighton's & Brimsons around 55 (basically from a points point of view; the big games are why Burton averaged more)


Tier 3 - Meh; 0.47-0.53 PPM
T Dearden - 42
C Walker - 39
S Walker, L Keary - 38 (for both when named at 6)
J Luai - 37
J Clifford - 37


Tier 4 - Value if base price and playing 80; 0.38-0.43 PPM
A Milford - 36
E Mam - 35
D Asi - 34
T Amone - 32
M Moylan - 31
T Gamble - 31
K Foran - 30


Tier 5 - How did we end up here?; 0.33 PPM
Chanel Harris-Tavita - 24 (would've been 26 if he could've at least managed 80 minutes)


Isaiya Katoa is currently priced at 19, so any fantasy performance that is better than CHT and you're looking at 10+ points of value.

Halves in new spines are often a bit sluggish to start. If he plays the whole year, I'd be surprised if he doesn't make $150k-$200k from here - it's probably more a question around how quickly the cash gain is.

Loiero or Uto out for hosking?

Mulvy wrote:

Two worlds collided

lubedragon wrote:Loiero or Uto out for hosking?

utoi for me

lubedragon wrote:Loiero or Uto out for hosking?

I think you're probably better off not doing the trade if they are your best options.

Both are likely to make another $60k+
We know Hosking plays this week (hopefully makes $50-60k), but then it's a gamble beyond that.

So for you to net positive on the trade, it's all entirely risk (as you'd make that money from either of the two trade targets anyway), unless you feel so strongly that Hosking maintains a 50+ average AND a role in the team going forward

I'd look for a better option, or sit on my hands

Loomer wrote:

Two worlds collided

not really because 1 was a coward who killed himself & the other did not

easytiger wrote:I was looking at I Katoa pre-TLT
I'm not likely to go that way this week (but probably will soon thereafter).

Anyway, here's a statistical breakdown on what to expect from five-eighth scoring, and whether Isaiya Katoa is still worth picking up (for the handful who don't have him);

I looked through all the main 6's from last year, and broke them down into approx PPM scoring (to adjust for a few lower minute players in the 60-70 min range; Gamble, C Harris, Amone).

The five-eighth fantasy tiers;

Tier 1 - Elite; 0.77 PPM
Munster - averaged 62, lower quartile average of 52, upper of 76, what can you say.


Tier 2 - Good; ~0.60 PPM
Burton - 50 avg
Wighton - 47 avg
AJ Brimson - 47 avg (at 6)
All have lower quartiles around 37, Burton a good upper of 63 compared to Wighton's & Brimsons around 55 (basically from a points point of view; the big games are why Burton averaged more)


Tier 3 - Meh; 0.47-0.53 PPM
T Dearden - 42
C Walker - 39
S Walker, L Keary - 38 (for both when named at 6)
J Luai - 37
J Clifford - 37


Tier 4 - Value if base price and playing 80; 0.38-0.43 PPM
A Milford - 36
E Mam - 35
D Asi - 34
T Amone - 32
M Moylan - 31
T Gamble - 31
K Foran - 30


Tier 5 - How did we end up here?; 0.33 PPM
Chanel Harris-Tavita - 24 (would've been 26 if he could've at least managed 80 minutes)


Isaiya Katoa is currently priced at 19, so any fantasy performance that is better than CHT and you're looking at 10+ points of value.

Halves in new spines are often a bit sluggish to start. If he plays the whole year, I'd be surprised if he doesn't make $150k-$200k from here - it's probably more a question around how quickly the cash gain is.

Wait and see, but I suspect that whatever numbers they're wearing, Katoa will be playing more as a 7 and Milford more as a 6, which will hopefully move him up a tier or two simply by virtue of doing more kicking than the bottom part of your list.

rhinoceroo wrote:

Wait and see, but I suspect that whatever numbers they're wearing, Katoa will be playing more as a 7 and Milford more as a 6, which will hopefully move him up a tier or two simply by virtue of doing more kicking than the bottom part of your list.

I completely agree - it certainly shouldn't harm his scoring potential. That being said, Milford has been a very dominant kicker before (and under WB).

Strangely, I still find myself drawn to a guy with far less JS and who will probably make less cash in the long run.

Fast cash and keeper scoring is clearly my weak point

rhinoceroo wrote:

Wait and see, but I suspect that whatever numbers they're wearing, Katoa will be playing more as a 7 and Milford more as a 6, which will hopefully move him up a tier or two simply by virtue of doing more kicking than the bottom part of your list.

What makes people think Katoa will automatically pick up a crap more load of kick metres? I'm hoping he does but I personally don't see a massive upturn.

The guy in first traded Trindall into his team in week 3, and then traded him out last week.

There are people still very high in the rankings purely on luck who are making big errors. Trust the process folks.

easytiger wrote:

I completely agree - it certainly shouldn't harm his scoring potential. That being said, Milford has been a very dominant kicker before (and under WB).

Strangely, I still find myself drawn to a guy with far less JS and who will probably make less cash in the long run.

Fast cash and keeper scoring is clearly my weak point

I am having to play I Katoa at the 17 spot this week, so I am hoping as WB mentioned, he is the dominant half, but Milf will do Milf...so not going to hold my breath.

I can certainly see that the Dolphins go backward under that half combo...but maybe WB can orchestrate a miracle..I will be happy with 30+ from Katoa this week.

I should add, I have Warbrick at 18, I will possibly give him a run in the 17, but I feel he has more risk of a v low score, at least Katoa should be 24+.

wolfking wrote:

What makes people think Katoa will automatically pick up a crap more load of kick metres?  I'm hoping he does but I personally don't see a massive upturn.

My thoughts exactly especially with Milford being a well known ball hog

wolfking wrote:

What makes people think Katoa will automatically pick up a crap more load of kick metres?  I'm hoping he does but I personally don't see a massive upturn.

Ownership?

White Lightning wrote:

not really because 1 was a coward who killed himself & the other did not

I'd probably top myself if I couldn't taste or smell. Don't forget he had brain damage as well

MF wrote:

My thoughts exactly especially with Milford being a well known ball hog

I think it's the fact he got moved to the 7 rather than milf coming in at 7 and leaving him where he was coupled with the fact all his junior football was at half not 5/8 with milf being on the outer to begin with its not that crazy to believe wayne has told him it's your team guide us around the park.

WTF do I do with Talau ?
$110K in bank
Teddy - Walsh or Miller frees up another $100K

So somewhere around $400K
Or do I go Teddy - Warbick and have $600 to play with ?

Milford will kick 400-500m per game. He's the senior player and has the better boot.

The kid will keep doing what he's doing, learning NRL football. Hopefully some attacking chances come his way.

I would forum bet the shit out of this.