The Betting Thread

Here's a bit of a long shot but one with which I reckon $20 might be worth a nudge.

Wes Goosen to score 3 tries for the Hurricanes v Lions Paying $126.

I'd also hedge that with Goosen to score 2 @18

Also if you wanna have a crack with another guy who can cross the line:

Same bets on Aso @ $61 and $11

And finally something a bit more realistic - a multi on Crusaders -6.5 and Total over 53.5 in (Lions Canes)

The later game is being played at altitude, in perfect track and weather conditions. Should be a crazy high score game I reckon!

Rippin and Tearin wrote:Here's a bit of a long shot but one with which I reckon $20 might be worth a nudge.

Wes Goosen to score 3 tries for the Hurricanes v Lions Paying $126.

I'd also hedge that with Goosen to score 2 @18

Also if you wanna have a crack with another guy who can cross the line:

Same bets on Aso @ $61 and $11

And finally something a bit more realistic - a multi on Crusaders -6.5 and Total over 53.5 in (Lions Canes)

The later game is being played at altitude, in perfect track and weather conditions. Should be a crazy high score game I reckon!

@Rippin and Tearin

Would that high scoring game suit the Canes or the Lions you reckon?

Oz Sport Mad wrote:

@Rippin and Tearin

Would that high scoring game suit the Canes or the Lions you reckon?

the hurricanes but I'm a little nervous about the fact that apparently to save money SANZAR chose to not have a neutral referee trio and instead went with three SA refs. Otherwise I for sure would pick the Canes.

@Oz Sport Mad

By the way mate, had to write that quick from my phone last night. The massive unknown in this game is actually just how good are the Lions? This year they haven't had to play one NZ side the whole season. Don't ask why - this tournament is an absolute disaster in terms of the way its structured. So given that outside of the Lions all would probably agree that the Crusaders, Hurricanes, Chiefs, and Highlanders are the top 4 sides (in that order), it really is hard to get a gauge on the Lions given they haven't played a good team all year!

That plus home ground, home ref advantage would make me stay away from betting on the Hurricanes: Too many unknowns.

Crusaders won by 14 and the total of the other game went well over 53, with a final score of 44-29. So the double came through pretty comfortably really at ~$4

Goosen scored a try after 10 min, but that was it.

As for the game, I haven't watched the whole thing, just the highlights and some commentary around it, but it does seem the Hurricanes were very much on the wrong end of some massive calls. Two "tries" which were suspect (both from the Lions) got awarded without going to the TMO, linesmen very quick to say they were tries, both should have at least been reviewed. And a pretty sketchy yellow card to Barret which was pretty massive in the context of the game.

Anyway, good on the Lions, the final should be pretty good. I just really hope they get neutral referees. Its pretty farcical that at this level they decide to go with home refs in such big matches. A cynic might think this is all about trying to give a leg up to SA rugby.

As an early line I'd be all over the Crusades to win the Cup at $1.75. Ill watch the full Canes Lions game first, but by all accounts Canes probably should have been up by 30 at the half. If thats the case, and with the rough calls it looks like they got, Crusaders will win.

All in on the Crusaders. I think they win this one comfortably. Too good value to resist. Also think alternative points starts, up to around -19.5 could be worth a shot too.

-1.5 paying $1.9, -6.5 @ $2.4, -11.5 @ $3.5, and -16.5 @ $5.25. Heck even -21.5 might be worth a punt if you have access to live betting and can hedge in game @ $8.25.

Long and the short if it is, the Hurricanes should have won last week. They both butchered the game with bad tactics and poor fitness, and got a really rough end of the stick from some extremely biassed refereeing. The Crusaders are a better team than the Canes so thats basically my logic.

The BIG caveat to all this is that again 3 of 4 refs are SAs. My biggest concern of the four is the video ref though. Piper is a good ref, he has NZer Jackson on one sideline. So those two should keep things in check.

Also, for value betters, and those with access to the NZ Tab. The dumb bastards there are again miles behind the times.

NYY @ $8 to win the AL is crazy value. They are more like half that on most bookies after making several big moves before the trade deadline. KC @ $26 is also fantastic value.

I had a $200 bet on the Knights not getting the spoon with another member here. Was a little torn watching the Tigers on Sunday.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:All in on the Crusaders. I think they win this one comfortably. Too good value to resist. Also think alternative points starts, up to around -19.5 could be worth a shot too.

-1.5 paying $1.9, -6.5 @ $2.4, -11.5 @ $3.5, and -16.5 @ $5.25. Heck even -21.5 might be worth a punt if you have access to live betting and can hedge in game @ $8.25.

Long and the short if it is, the Hurricanes should have won last week. They both butchered the game with bad tactics and poor fitness, and got a really rough end of the stick from some extremely biassed refereeing. The Crusaders are a better team than the Canes so thats basically my logic.

The BIG caveat to all this is that again 3 of 4 refs are SAs. My biggest concern of the four is the video ref though. Piper is a good ref, he has NZer Jackson on one sideline. So those two should keep things in check.

Thanks for the analysis last week R&T, pretty bloody spot on with all your tips.

Wasn't really punting related, I just have a 1 game lead in my tipping comp and was also worried about the Lions vs Canes game.....but all good as 2nd went the same (that or they tipped against the Crusaders).

So going into the GF it now comes down to matchplay as 2nd has a large enough lead on 3rd to safely tip the Lions and hope for the upset.

C'mon Crusaders!

P.S. Following on from your previous point about the Lions not having to play an NZ side......is this the most farcical comp in the world by a long margin?
It has got to worse levels than the National Soccer League in Australia before it was revamped into the A-League and I honestly don't think it is salvageable.
Start again I say.

Oz Sport Mad wrote:

Thanks for the analysis last week R&T, pretty bloody spot on with all your tips.

Wasn't really punting related, I just have a 1 game lead in my tipping comp and was also worried about the Lions vs Canes game.....but all good as 2nd went the same (that or they tipped against the Crusaders).

So going into the GF it now comes down to matchplay as 2nd has a large enough lead on 3rd to safely tip the Lions and hope for the upset.

C'mon Crusaders!

P.S. Following on from your previous point about the Lions not having to play an NZ side......is this the most farcical comp in the world by a long margin?
It has got to worse levels than the National Soccer League in Australia before it was revamped into the A-League and I honestly don't think it is salvageable.
Start again I say.

Yup its an absolute disaster. Politics and $ have completely got in the way of common sense.

Good luck for your tipping comp. I would definitely go the Crusaders in your position. But anything could happen (as you know in sport). It is a big ask for any NZ team to win in SA, but Im not convinced that the Lions, even with that advantage, will be able to beat the Crusaders, who are a very good team, very well coached, and basically have an All Black forward pack.

I hope Im right cause I've got a bit of $ on it

I posted in the fantasy thread when they were having a discussion on top 4 prospects that I thought Para, then @ $3.75 on the NZTAB were good value. Wondering what your guys thoughts are on the top 4? I looked briefly at the schedules and thought Para looked to have a good run home and then compared that against NQ and the Broncos. But to be honest I took this bet on gut feeling and mostly on it being good value compared to other bookies.

Interested to hear what you guys think cause I ended up putting quite a sizeable amount down on them so will look to hedge at some point. Would appreciate some thoughts of those in the know.

Cheers

Rippin and Tearin wrote:All in on the Crusaders. I think they win this one comfortably. Too good value to resist. Also think alternative points starts, up to around -19.5 could be worth a shot too.

-1.5 paying $1.9, -6.5 @ $2.4, -11.5 @ $3.5, and -16.5 @ $5.25. Heck even -21.5 might be worth a punt if you have access to live betting and can hedge in game @ $8.25.

Wow, pretty much played out exactly how I had said.

Crusaders got out to a 22 point lead mid way through the second half, the line blew out to 29.5 live betting. Hedged twice at 29.5 and then again at 21.5.  End score Crusaders won by 8 and I got a 3-fold return on investment. Some of the easiest money all season to be had in these finals!!

If only the Sharks had won too - had a multi on Crusaders, Eels, Storm, Newcastle, & Sharks @ $11.6 - Only silver lining is that it means my Eels top 4 bet is looking better with the Sharks now battling for top 4 too!

I love the Eels for a top 4 spot, I don't think they drop a game heading into the finals.

Honeysett wrote:I love the Eels for a top 4 spot, I don't think they drop a game heading into the finals.

Broncos @ Suncorp?

Honeysett wrote:I love the Eels for a top 4 spot, I don't think they drop a game heading into the finals.

That's bloody good to hear!! I don't know a huge amount about the NRL, but the value on that bet was way too good. Was $3.75 before this last round and now basically halved into $2.

Eels have a bit of a dream run in with the Knights and Titans at home over the next two, then Broncos away before finishing against the Rabbits at home. You'd hope they win all three home games but even if they lose to the Broncos I think they have a good shot at the top 4.

I may well hedge before the Broncos game depending on how all the teams are tracking.

I've run a few permutations on the ladder predictor and Manly could well be the dark horse at the moment. The Sharks have some tough games coming up, Manly's run is actually pretty cruise. So if they win out, and the Eels go down to the Broncos then Manly could well sneak in. Their toughest game looks to be their last one against the Panthers, but they do have three away games first, albeit against the Tigers, Dogs, and Warriors. Hoping they slip up against the Tigers this week!!

ryno_ wrote:

Broncos @ Suncorp?

Yep. Will be a tough game but I think they're capable. Beat them recently.

Honeysett wrote:

Yep. Will be a tough game but I think they're capable. Beat them recently.

Different beast at suncorp - #penaltybroncos.

#refsintheirpocket

ryno_ wrote:

Different beast at suncorp - #penaltybroncos.

I'm still willing to back them. Norman MOM.

Hold all bets. Bevan French gone for the season.