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    The Betting Thread

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    Rippin and Tearin

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Mon Oct 02, 2017 8:06 am

    Honeysett wrote:Aaaaand that's a wrap folks. That's how you do the Grand Final weekend.

    $$ Smile

    Cheers mate - owe you one. Im not a huge leaguie, so when the commentators were all but saying Smith had won the award (at the end of the game) I was resound to that one not coming in, but wake up today to see it won, nice. Cant complain with a 40:1 shot can ya!!

    What a finish to an almost perfect weekend of betting. 3/3 with my main tips and then a 40:1 shot to finish.

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    Honeysett
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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Honeysett on Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:08 am

    Yeah look I wasn't confident towards the end of the game. The live market had Smith at $1.05 and Slater at $10 (still second favourite) the Clive Churchill is voted a bit differently than most awards I've found over the years so I still had hope. We were at a pub watching it out in the beer garden and when thy announced Slater we all went up stoked. Then the DJ dropped California Love. Just felt right.
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    Rippin and Tearin

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:12 pm

    Out of interest lads, all biases aside (if possible), who do you all like for NRL next year?
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    SI
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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by SI on Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:00 pm

    Rippin and Tearin wrote:Out of interest lads, all biases aside (if possible), who do you all like for NRL next year?
    Pamfus for me.
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    Honeysett
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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Honeysett on Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:02 pm

    Way too early to tell, so much can happen. I'd imagine Storm/Roosters/Cowboys will all be there again.
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    Rippin and Tearin

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:26 pm

    Is there a deadline for trades/ signings for next year? I know many have already been done, but do you usually expect more big ones?
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    No Worries
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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by No Worries on Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:55 pm

    Been away so trying to consolidate answers:

    @Honeysett - Clive Churchill is always a heart not head selection. Good earn. But saying that Smith didn't deserve it, he was feeding Cronk turds which he was polishing and regurgitating.


    @SI Moylan is more chance of playing with us than the Panfers. Without him struggle to make the 8

    @Rippin and Tearin - 30th June is the trade deadline - goes all the way through to juniors. There's plenty of negotiating left on the table.
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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by No Worries on Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:03 pm

    I too have cashed in this weekend I took the risk before they were bank interest favourites and it paid off.

    Oz Sport Mad

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Oz Sport Mad on Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:03 am

    Rippin and Tearin wrote:

    $$ Smile

    Cheers mate - owe you one. Im not a huge leaguie, so when the commentators were all but saying Smith had won the award (at the end of the game) I was resound to that one not coming in, but wake up today to see it won, nice. Cant complain with a 40:1 shot can ya!!

    What a finish to an almost perfect weekend of betting. 3/3 with my main tips and then a 40:1 shot to finish.


    How early did you blokes get on to get $40's? - well done.

    I normally tip my CC's prior to the semi's but my head (Storm players) was up against my heart (Broncos players) so I refrained this year.

    I did take Slater though pre game and like most others wasn't even watching the presso by that stage as (even with some of the funny calls over the years) I was almost certain it was Smithy.
    To be honest it really should have been.....I'll take it though.

    In terms of NRL 2018, obviously the Cows are going to be up there after what they did this year and then adding JT/Scott plus a few shrewd purchases (Maclean).
    I also like the Broncos after this season was derailed by a key injury to the FAC.....but I am heavily biased.
    Likely not to bet on these as they will both drift out to better odds (or stay similar) throughout the season and I'd rather the $$ in my hands than the TAB's.

    My other tip is a bit of a speculator and something I may dabble in early.
    I'm speculating that the Panfers may lure Cronk to the club with Moylan money.
    If this is the case, they are already up there but are slightly better value than what they are currently paying IMO.
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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Honeysett on Tue Oct 03, 2017 11:44 am

    Oz Sport Mad wrote:

    How early did you blokes get on to get $40's? - well done.

    I normally tip my CC's prior to the semi's but my head (Storm players) was up against my heart (Broncos players) so I refrained this year.

    I did take Slater though pre game and like most others wasn't even watching the presso by that stage as (even with some of the funny calls over the years) I was almost certain it was Smithy.
    To be honest it really should have been.....I'll take it though.

    In terms of NRL 2018, obviously the Cows are going to be up there after what they did this year and then adding JT/Scott plus a few shrewd purchases  (Maclean).
    I also like the Broncos after this season was derailed by a key injury to the FAC.....but I am heavily biased.
    Likely not to bet on these as they will both drift out to better odds (or stay similar) throughout the season and I'd rather the $$ in my hands than the TAB's.

    My other tip is a bit of a speculator and something I may dabble in early.
    I'm speculating that the Panfers may lure Cronk to the club with Moylan money.
    If this is the case, they are already up there but are slightly better value than what they are currently paying IMO.

    He's talking about the multi we got on. Dusty Martin + Billy Slater - 40/1
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    Rippin and Tearin

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Tue Oct 03, 2017 2:35 pm

    FWIW I've chucked down the profits from the 40:1 shot on some NFL bets including a couple of Div Win multi speculators.

    Here's what Im rolling with:

    AFC East Buffalo
    AFC South Houston (bet as a single too @ $2.5).
    AFC West KC (bet as a single too @ $2.5).
    NFC East Philly (bet as a single too @ $1.Cool.
    NFC West Rams (bet as a single too @ $6).
    NFC South Atlanta & Carolina (each bet as a singles too @ $1.8/$4.5).
    NFC North Detroit

    Odds of 3300:1 and 8200:1 respectively Smile

    Obviously some pretty big long shots there but NE just doesn't look right on D (although more than likely they'll get things sorted) hence rolling with Buffalo who are at worst a much improved team. The Rams are just really fun to watch, and are my team, so gotta back them, and Im not convinced by GB, so switching from the Vikings to upset them in that Div to Detroit. Outside of that I quite like KC, Houston, Philly, and Atlanta or Carolina.

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    Rippin and Tearin

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Tue Oct 03, 2017 2:47 pm

    OMG - BETTORS DREAM!! It feels like this usually this works against you but did anyone see the end of the KC v Washington game?

    I had KC -6.5, can't believe my luck Smile
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    Honeysett
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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Honeysett on Tue Oct 03, 2017 3:26 pm

    Rippin and Tearin wrote:OMG - BETTORS DREAM!! It feels like this usually this works against you but did anyone see the end of the KC v Washington game?

    I had KC -6.5, can't believe my luck Smile

    That's absolutely mental! Awesome feeling

    I had them to win live bet $2.20 when they were 10-0 down.

    I've also got $50 on them to take out the Superbowl
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    Revraiser

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Revraiser on Tue Oct 03, 2017 4:33 pm

    Well I needed KC's kicker to bang one more FG over for a h2h win in our Nfl fantasy league !

    Worth a shot R&T. Not many of the divisions are a closed shop, if the Bills play it out like they are at the moment they will go close. And my team Green Bay as u said dont look like they have enough across the oark after Rodgers.

    KC my preseason pick as well for the Bowl.
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    Rippin and Tearin

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:01 am

    Honeysett wrote:

    That's absolutely mental! Awesome feeling

    I had them to win live bet $2.20 when they were 10-0 down.

    I've also got $50 on them to take out the Superbowl

    Nice.

    I have to say I feel like KC got pretty lucky in that game. Im not sure they win if it weren't for the numerous injuries to the Washing D, the least of which Norman, who I understand now is likely out a few games.

    BUT hey, you take the goods with the bads don't ya!!

    I've not got a team to win yet but with some of the winnings from yesterday I'm taking the following who are all overvalued on the NZTAB compared to the US bookies (one of my betting criterion on US bets):

    Superbowl Winner:
    Steelers @ $10
    KC @ $10
    Houston @ $31

    AFC:
    Steelers @ $5.5
    KC @ $5.5
    Houston @ $17

    NFC:
    Rams @ $21
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    Rippin and Tearin

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Wed Oct 04, 2017 7:01 am

    By the way, what did you guys get on KC pre-season?
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    Rippin and Tearin

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Wed Oct 04, 2017 9:15 am

    All right guys, time for this weeks Rugby. As always its bloody hard to get a good read on things until teams are named, but perhaps that's where the value lies - seems to be working so far anyway.

    But first here's a trend worth noting:

    Since week 3 (5 rounds so far) there have been 10 teams who have played Wednesday night and then had a short turn around to a Sunday game that same week. Of those 10 games only 1 team (who played on Wednesday) has gone on to win on Sunday, and that was Counties who beat the bottom placed HB.

    Included in those other games was:
    Canterbury's shock thrashing at the hands of Wellington (that paid $7.5 for 13+ and $36 for 29+)
    North Harbour's Thrashing of Auckland (by 47 points)

    So I'd take a close look at the odds on Auckland over Tasman this Sunday as well as Waikato (points start) over North Harbour although I note that North Harbour have rested several players for tonights game presumably in preparation for Sunday. Odds not yet up for either of those two though.

    For the games that are up I like:
    Tasman tonight - need to get on fast as the line is drifting: Tasman -3.5 Both teams with a lot of changes but Im liking Tasman here as I think they actually went pretty well last week v Taranaki playing most of the game with 14 players (or less). North Harbour seem to be going into this game with an eye to Sunday, resting a number of their players including captain Parsons and both inside backs. Id bebig here but for some injuries to Tasman too, so medium stakes.

    Counties +6.5 over Manawatu I like Counties to at least keep this one close. I'll wait for the team naming here, but perhaps even H2H Counties could be the bet. Just need to make sure key guys like Pulu, TNW, Manu and Kerr and to a lesser extent Royal, Lokatui, Tupou. If these guys are named I think Counties medium stakes looking good.

    Canterbury 13+ - don't really need to say much with this one. Canterbury RS matches have had the following margins this year: 6, 58, 73, & 20. Taranaki is the best side Canterbury will face this year at home, but I saw cracks in their game last week and I think Canterbury 13+ is solid. High stakes as these odds will shorten!

    Outside of those three nothing really appeals at this stage although team naming will change things and as I mention above I am quite keen on Auckland to upset Tasman on Sunday.
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    Honeysett
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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Honeysett on Wed Oct 04, 2017 11:20 am

    Rippin and Tearin wrote:By the way, what did you guys get on KC pre-season?

    I got them @ 11

    My pre season tip was Steelers but I don't like their chances
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    Rippin and Tearin

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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Rippin and Tearin on Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:57 pm

    Anyone on Tasman with me tonight? Looking good so far, they've put 21 points on them within 19 minutes!!
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    Mighty Fishes
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    Re: The Betting Thread

    Post by Mighty Fishes on Wed Oct 04, 2017 6:56 pm

    Rippin and Tearin wrote:Anyone on Tasman with me tonight? Looking good so far, they've put 21 points on them within 19 minutes!!

    Yeah mate. I only did $5 at -6.5 looking alright

      Current date/time is Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:24 pm