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    2018 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 48

    Poll

    Who are the underdogs for Game 1 of SOO ?

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    Total Votes: 82
    Poll closed
    BroncHose
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    Post by BroncHose Thu May 31, 2018 1:35 am

    zorasdomain wrote:

    Good point. If Arrow could get himself dropped that would be great. Also potentially puts the brakes on any benefit of Latrell to Aitken. Though I was under the impression that Curtis Scott had a spot before he turned into an idiot. I don't know if he's blown his chance forever now.

    He punched Dalker in the face. No way that he's blown his chances forever. He'll probably captain the side in game 2.
    BroncHose
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    Post by BroncHose Thu May 31, 2018 1:42 am

    Hypothetical:

    Cook plays origin.
    Farah plays hooker during origin period. Farah plays well.

    Could Farah earn a bench spot for the rest of the season and Cook is no longer an 80min hooker?

    Fishing
    standard-issue
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    Post by standard-issue Thu May 31, 2018 1:54 am

    BroncHose wrote:
    zorasdomain wrote:

    Good point. If Arrow could get himself dropped that would be great. Also potentially puts the brakes on any benefit of Latrell to Aitken. Though I was under the impression that Curtis Scott had a spot before he turned into an idiot. I don't know if he's blown his chance forever now.

    He punched Dalker in the face. No way that he's blown his chances forever. He'll probably captain the side in game 2.

    cheer
    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin Thu May 31, 2018 3:29 am

    Welshy wrote:Apologies in advance for this long winder

    Was looking at my trade ins, team for R13 and team for R14 and had a thought of whether it's worth field a decent 13 this week if my team next round would be too mid range punt heavy (JFriend + WGraham with JFH also on the bench)

    R13 team after trades

    Cook - Surgess
    Capewell - JFriend
    Isaako - WGraham

    Friend
    Fifita, Surgess
    TLolo, Murray, Barnett
    ARey, TMM
    Dugan, Fonua
    Ponga

    WGraham
    Cogger

    (smith, kikau, martin, JFH, Mbye, Ted, RFM, Arrow)

    So I'm now considering only bringing in only one of Friend/Graham and getting in Doui instead as it generates an extra $207,000 minimum, then lobbing Barnett for Harris this week which would allow me to get in both McInnes and SJ next round for Murray and Cogger)

    theory behind that is not leaving so much money on the bench (Graham, JFH, RFM) and getting gun Top 17 keepers in quicker

    so R14 team would look like

    Smith
    Fifita, Arrow
    TLolo, Harris, Surgess
    ARey, SJ
    Dugan, Fonua
    Ponga, Tedesco, Mbye

    Friend/RFM
    McInnes
    Martin
    Kikau

    JFH, TMM, Doui, Friend/RFM

    Does that makes sense?
    sacrificing Barnetts score this week to allow me to get in 3 R17 and top 17 keepers in?

    If you have the time then obviously working out total score predictions between now and round 17 is the best way to figure out what the better option is. But my thinking all along is that a bye strategy (of bringing in mid-rangers) will likely be detrimental to the long game. Like you say, a few mid rangers will up your round 13 score, but more than likely it hurts in the long run as you have to carry those guys through round 14 , 15, and 16 at the expense of an extra gun or two.

    I don't like the Cook trade (but we've discussed our reasonings either way on that one), beyond that though I definitely prefer your second option but to be honest I'd be adding Taupau now too. The extra money you get from grabbing Doueihi should allow you to get Taupau too right? Then you have another set and forget for the season and a guy that looks like a top 5 player this season.

    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin Thu May 31, 2018 3:51 am

    zorasdomain wrote:Anyone care to have a look at my team and tell me what they would do with it this week?

    I looked at your team last night and presumed you'd be making at least 2 trades:

    1) JFH out
    2) JMK ou

    and then perhaps 1 or 2 more:

    3) Gosi out
    4) Mbye out

    I personally would go for the first three. Not sure of your cash position though so don't know what your trade in potential is but looking at your team I would be aiming to get as any points as I can and at the same time as many keepers as I can. Assuming you can only do two upgrades perhaps something along the lines of:

    Douiehi + 2 of Surgess/Fitzgibbon/Gallen or similar.

    I think the above is probably the safest play.

    Milch said it in a previous post, and I 100% agree, round 13 is the round to go hard trading in to up your points over the byes. There are very few round 17 playing keepers so I don't think many people will be able to make big moves there and if they do it may well be at the expense of the long game. A handful of people might have the trades to bring in round 17 guys and then trade them out again in 18, but Id be hugely surprised if those teams are in contention for a top 10.

    My strategy post round 13 will be to bring in keepers only. If they play 17 then great (Harris, SJ, RTS Mannering maybe?) but otherwise guys like Cleary, TTurbo despite not playing 17 will still probably be good long term buys.

    Best of luck mate!
    Rippin and Tearin
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    Post by Rippin and Tearin Thu May 31, 2018 4:03 am

    Pacey's Best wrote:

    Zoras mate, here's an idea that I thought I'd share. At the moment you have round 13 (10 players), round 17 (5 players) and Origin (6 players).
    Leaving the 10 round 13 players and coming in to round 17, being the leader, you don't want to have only 6-8 players, as many teams just behind you will certainly have 5 or 6 more and your lead will be gone, so I wouldn't touch those 5 players either and build on your round 17 team. So that just leaves the 6 Origin players to play with. Personally, I don't like the idea of trading out obvious guns, only to have to bring them back (unless you have plenty of trades left) and it's impossible to predict an injury or even if players will back up or not, so the definite keepers I would want in my final 17 is, Cook, Arrow, J.Trbojevic and Tedesco. the other 2 players, Crichton and Mitchell, I think, have a lot of players similar in averages, for eg, would it matter if your final 17 had E.Aitken instead of L.Mitchell. Once you get through this round, I can imagine you will have a lot of round 13 players you won't want to keep so depending on how many trades you have left to see how many of the 12 trades you will use before round 17.
    If you have plenty of trades left, then I would trade one or both Crichton and Mitchell to round 13 players. If not enough trades, then probably sit tight till this round's over.

    What do you guys think? I think it's sound advice but what the hell would I know as I'm one of the ones who's kept Rochow all this time, and I don't want to give Zoras a bum steer.

    I think the Crichton / Mitchel trade idea has merit - agree, I wouldn't be touching the other Origin guys though.

    My strategy (if i was in Zoras position) would be hugely dependent on how many trades left. I'd be aiming for 2 maybe 3 trades left by end of round 18. So id be working backwards from there. if that permits an extra trade like u suggest, id do it.

    As above though, there is way more certainty (and options) in trading into round 13 players. id be largely forgetting 17 for now. Worst thing that could happen is you trade for 17 and then someone goes down injured - you waste the trade and the points. on the other hand round 13 is basically risk free.

    Welshy
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    Post by Welshy Thu May 31, 2018 4:47 am

    Rippin and Tearin wrote:

    If you have the time then obviously working out total score predictions between now and round 17 is the best way to figure out what the better option is. But my thinking all along is that a bye strategy (of bringing in mid-rangers) will likely be detrimental to the long game. Like you say, a few mid rangers will up your round 13 score, but more than likely it hurts in the long run as you have to carry those guys through round 14 , 15, and 16 at the expense of an extra gun or two.

    I don't like the Cook trade (but we've discussed our reasonings either way on that one), beyond that though I definitely prefer your second option but to be honest I'd be adding Taupau now too. The extra money you get from grabbing Doueihi should allow you to get Taupau too right? Then you have another set and forget for the season and a guy that looks like a top 5 player this season.


    Gone Cook - Surgess mate I don’t want Kapow at his price going to bypass him this year, McInnes and SJ in next week then Harris and Cleary the following week
    GreenMachine
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    Post by GreenMachine Thu May 31, 2018 5:20 am

    Pacey's Best wrote:

    Zoras mate, here's an idea that I thought I'd share. At the moment you have round 13 (10 players), round 17 (5 players) and Origin (6 players).
    Leaving the 10 round 13 players and coming in to round 17, being the leader, you don't want to have only 6-8 players, as many teams just behind you will certainly have 5 or 6 more and your lead will be gone, so I wouldn't touch those 5 players either and build on your round 17 team. So that just leaves the 6 Origin players to play with. Personally, I don't like the idea of trading out obvious guns, only to have to bring them back (unless you have plenty of trades left) and it's impossible to predict an injury or even if players will back up or not, so the definite keepers I would want in my final 17 is, Cook, Arrow, J.Trbojevic and Tedesco. the other 2 players, Crichton and Mitchell, I think, have a lot of players similar in averages, for eg, would it matter if your final 17 had E.Aitken instead of L.Mitchell. Once you get through this round, I can imagine you will have a lot of round 13 players you won't want to keep so depending on how many trades you have left to see how many of the 12 trades you will use before round 17.
    If you have plenty of trades left, then I would trade one or both Crichton and Mitchell to round 13 players. If not enough trades, then probably sit tight till this round's over.

    What do you guys think? I think it's sound advice but what the hell would I know as I'm one of the ones who's kept Rochow all this time, and I don't want to give Zoras a bum steer.

    Great advice really. Well done.

    And no interest from my end trying to catch a team as strong as yours that far ahead with already a stronger team than most of us! Know it’s only one match but Both players you’ve mentioned I completely lost interest in once named for origin. I can’t see how you could even consider Cook for the axe, he’s been the only closest thing we’ve had to a set-and-forget captain.
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    Post by Honey Badger Thu May 31, 2018 5:53 am

    BroncHose wrote:Hypothetical:

    Cook plays origin.
    Farah plays hooker during origin period. Farah plays well.

    Could Farah earn a bench spot for the rest of the season and Cook is no longer an 80min hooker?

    Fishing

    Depends if Souths like being in the top 4 RE: farah
    THEGAME
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    Post by THEGAME Thu May 31, 2018 6:06 am

    mulvy wrote:

    I mean fair call to the Terepo owners, but you guys must admit being lucky as fuck with the Brown thing and enjoying our misery!

    Yep and Terepo becomes CS9 next week with a bit of extra coin.
    Blain
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    Post by Blain Thu May 31, 2018 6:18 am

    Next week I'll have 2 strong players in my EMG (probably Friend & Martin), the thought of downgrading Thompson to a non playing reserve scares me a little, considering I can only afford 1 trade a week from then on. Injuries are always on the cards, I'm thinking of getting Olive for back cover/cash out, and banking on the fact I can loop injured players if I get them.

    What are peoples thoughts on NPR's? Leaves you short on numbers, but could potentially boost your score each week if you dice roll well. A big if I've found. Perfect NPR would be a round 17/origin fill in player I guess, easier said than done though! That Panthers half would have to be the most logical ATM.

    Still thinking Dugan over Aitken BTW.
    GreenMachine
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    Post by GreenMachine Thu May 31, 2018 6:29 am

    Blain wrote:Next week I'll have 2 strong players in my EMG (probably Friend & Martin), the thought of downgrading Thompson to a non playing reserve scares me a little, considering I can only afford 1 trade a week from then on. Injuries are always on the cards, I'm thinking of getting Olive for back cover/cash out, and banking on the fact I can loop injured players if I get them.

    What are peoples thoughts on NPR's? Leaves you short on numbers, but could potentially boost your score each week if you dice roll well. A big if I've found. Perfect NPR would be a round 17/origin fill in player I guess, easier said than done though! That Panthers half would have to be the most logical ATM.

    Still thinking Dugan over Aitken BTW.

    This year a small point scoring 18-21 reserve is better than an NPR unless you want them to play loop-de-loop with your back 5 or something.

    Although he’s shite, Matt Wright for example is fine to own at number 21 so long as you have someone of Fonua/Isaako standard above him, so always go for a playing reserve over a non playing nuffy in this format
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    Post by Chapper Thu May 31, 2018 7:17 am

    Kikau to Guerra, to sideways? for R13 and then a 14-17.
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    Post by zorasdomain Thu May 31, 2018 7:27 am

    GreenMachine wrote:

    Great advice really. Well done.

    And no interest from my end trying to catch a team as strong as yours that far ahead with already a stronger team than most of us! Know it’s only one match but Both players you’ve mentioned I completely lost interest in once named for origin. I can’t see how you could even consider Cook for the axe, he’s been the only closest thing we’ve had to a set-and-forget captain.
    The problem with Cook is he won't be a set-and-forget captain for 4 of the next 6 weeks. There's no way I would captain him backing up after Origin.
    I completely understand why people would trade him out, as long as you are sure you can get him back in round 19 (which is the biggest thing that makes trading him questionable). I'm not going to do it (might change my mind if he's not named next week :p) but I can see it working well for those that do it and plan it well.
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    Post by zorasdomain Thu May 31, 2018 7:29 am

    Thanks everyone for even more great advice. You're all fantastic. This place is the greatest Beating Heart
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Thu May 31, 2018 7:32 am

    BroncHose wrote:Hypothetical:

    Cook plays origin.
    Farah plays hooker during origin period. Farah plays well.

    Could Farah earn a bench spot for the rest of the season and Cook is no longer an 80min hooker?

    Fishing

    This is why I don't think Cook will rest. He has just locked down the starting spot no way he risks that. Not to mention he is probably the fittest player in the comp
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    Post by zorasdomain Thu May 31, 2018 7:40 am

    GreenMachine wrote:

    Great advice really. Well done.

    And no interest from my end trying to catch a team as strong as yours that far ahead with already a stronger team than most of us! Know it’s only one match but Both players you’ve mentioned I completely lost interest in once named for origin. I can’t see how you could even consider Cook for the axe, he’s been the only closest thing we’ve had to a set-and-forget captain.
    The problem with Cook is he won't be a set-and-forget captain for 4 of the next 6 weeks. There's no way I would captain him backing up after Origin.
    I completely understand why people would trade him out, as long as you are sure you can get him back in round 19 (which is the biggest thing that makes trading him questionable). I'm not going to do it (might change my mind if he's not named next week :p) but I can see it working well for those that do it and plan it well.
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Thu May 31, 2018 7:42 am

    I think with everyone shying away from round 17 bye that will be the one to target. With only 7 rounds to go afterwards if you trade in a player who can grab a 50 in round 17 they only need to get with in a 7 point average of the player you trade out in the final rounds to make it worth it. Someone like a Ryan James averaging 46.5(by that point we would know if he is in Origin) or a Milford averaging 47.8 will be firmly on the radar. I'll also be looking at Issac Luke as he seems to have solid stats in games without injury.
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Thu May 31, 2018 7:46 am

    Further on round 17 lining up something like this will rocket you up the rankings without compromising your final 17 too much

    Smith
    James
    Harris, Su'a, RFM
    SJ, Milford
    Hiku, Croker/Aitken
    Dufty, Mbye, RTS

    McInnes, Martin, Luke, Brimson
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    Post by Liverpool_Bulldog Thu May 31, 2018 7:56 am

    multiple.scoregasms wrote:Further on round 17 lining up something like this will rocket you up the rankings without compromising your final 17 too much

    Smith
    James
    Harris, Su'a, RFM
    SJ, Milford
    Hiku, Croker/Aitken
    Dufty, Mbye, RTS

    McInnes, Martin, Luke, Brimson

    I'm pretty sure there is no one that could get close to a team like that?
    And if they can then they are cooked for this bye.

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