NRL Fantasy 2018 Thread Part 38

Yay vindication

Maloney to Surgess could cost 100k roughly next week, oh what a time to be alive!

pm888 wrote:
cricton is a bit a of a pod. even though it says he has 15% ownership my guess is its less than 5% in the top 1000. 

hasnt had the same 50 metre gallops this year though. not sure what has changed, maybe hes taken over georges vegan diet?

Yup, that's a good point!

Loomer wrote:Yay vindication

mate, the refs have no idea... have you even been watching? #refsfault

Milchcow wrote:

Moose, the *only* thing you concern yourself with is how other people feel about the Broncos.

Rather then concerning yourself with what I do maybe you should pay more attention to your VSDT draft team.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:Crichton is appealing in terms of his output but there's no value there. He's priced above his average with no obvious signs of that changing.

So to be a good buy, IMO, you either see something there which suggests his fantasy output will change and/or you can't find any better value elsewhere.

I'd argue Surgess and Lolo offer better value as round 13 players at this stage.

I mentioned Crichton as a poor man's Taumalolo, as in, can't afford Taumalolo

Burgers is a meathead and walking suspension, so I'll pass on him.

I think Crichton had something like 72 decoy runs this year, with the next highest being 52 or something a few weeks ago. Despite that, he's still scoring like a keeper and if players stop biting on his decoys, may see him crash over for a couple of meaties or linebreaks. Only takes 1 big play here or there and suddenly he's underpriced.

my tv broke wrote:Crichton will bust out an 85 sooner or later, probably tonight.. and everyone will wish they had him and make him prime trade target #1 next week

Yes, this is my fear. He's bound to do it, I would just like him to be in my team when it happens, especially as very few teams up the top own him. Though I don't generally agree with the whole POD thing.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:

Which part?

Burgess having the suspensions out of his system

WT Winfield wrote:I think Crichton had something like 72 decoy runs this year, with the next highest being 52 or something a few weeks ago. Despite that, he's still scoring like a keeper and if players stop biting on his decoys, may see him crash over for a couple of meaties or linebreaks. Only takes 1 big play here or there and suddenly he's underpriced.

reyno gonna hit him short all night long against the knights suspect edge defense. get a new banner ready

Krump wrote:
Burgess having the suspensions out of his system

Haha he's a changed man

Loomer wrote:Yay vindication

Hahaha asking a nswcup ref?

Mate you can’t complain about an nrl level ref making shit calls then seek justification from a nsw cup ref. Thats like arguing with a doctor about a diagnosis then taking the word of a nurse over the doctor because it suits your theory.

In saying all this, fuck the broncos.

Hoping Cogger has a big scoring night so I can get him next week and some price rises.

Surgess is a maniac & too risky to buy. He is so unpredictable & you never know when he's going to snap. In his latest suspension Souths had the game sewn up & there was no need for Surgess to throw a swinging arm but he did. Don't get me wrong I love how he plays & I'm a big fan because of his madman attitude but this is not good for fantasy.

zorasdomain wrote:
Yes, this is my fear. He's bound to do it, I would just like him to be in my team when it happens, especially as very few teams up the top own him. Though I don't generally agree with the whole POD thing.

This is 'Butters' Stacked deck theory to be honest. If you haven't seen his video don't bother but the idea is a player has had a bunch of low scores (relative to last year) somehow has a greater likelihood of busting out a big one. The logic, from a statistical stand point is flawed (its like saying that just because you've played and lost lotto heaps, you now have more chance to win) and even if you think about it from a 'rugby league' lens, most would probably argue the opposite is true due to things potentially not being 'all else equal' i.e game plan change (increase number of decoy runs), player form, opposition awareness of player etc).

That being said, fantasy is full of luck so you never know, the big one could be right around the corner.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

This is 'Butters' Stacked deck theory to be honest. If you haven't seen his video don't bother but the idea is a player has had a bunch of low scores (relative to last year) somehow has a greater likelihood of busting out a big one.

yeah its obviously flawed but its the kind of thing we like to tell ourselves when looking at guys like Rapana, and a couple of weeks ago, Taumalolo.

Rippin and Tearin wrote:

This is 'Butters' Stacked deck theory to be honest. If you haven't seen his video don't bother but the idea is a player has had a bunch of low scores (relative to last year) somehow has a greater likelihood of busting out a big one. The logic, from a statistical stand point is flawed (its like saying that just because you've played and lost lotto heaps, you now have more chance to win) and even if you think about it from a 'rugby league' lens, most would probably argue the opposite is true due to things potentially not being 'all else equal' i.e game plan change (increase number of decoy runs), player form, opposition awareness of player etc).

That being said, fantasy is full of luck so you never know, the big one could be right around the corner.

True that.

I guess it all depends on why the player is producing low scores. Positional change stacked pack etc.

If it’s because they are just playing garbage. Then I reckon this theory has more merit.

zorasdomain wrote:

Yeah, what the cow says. I'm not really convinced by anyone. The 2nd row is a wasteland of trash this year. But I've got to get someone. Murray is also an option if he improves but him hamstrings and minutes are a concern.
Is there anyone better you have in mind?

Yeah sorry, no solutions here.

I'm leaving my 2RF/FRF as they are for now.

Fifita, JFH, Kikau
Arrow, RFM, Murray (Gos who is injured but not a priority)

Matterson definitely worth a look if he's not already in your halves.

Payne Haas rolled ankle and will miss 2-4 weeks.

Broncos are trying to disguise Bird being hooked as "quad tightness".. lol.

WT Winfield wrote:

I mentioned Crichton as a poor man's Taumalolo, as in, can't afford Taumalolo

Burgers is a meathead and walking suspension, so I'll pass on him.

I think Crichton had something like 72 decoy runs this year, with the next highest being 52 or something a few weeks ago. Despite that, he's still scoring like a keeper and if players stop biting on his decoys, may see him crash over for a couple of meaties or linebreaks. Only takes 1 big play here or there and suddenly he's underpriced.

I reckon he's closer to fairly priced but is there more value in going guys like Brown or even Gallen? (When they are back ofc) Or even sticking with RFM/Muray.

As an example of a low 2RFs strat would be to have Arrow at Prop with a 2RF of JTurbo, ??? and ??? with a bench of Cook, Macca, Cleary and Matterson. I think JTurbo is a cut above the rest but any 2 of the remaining guys won't matter too much.

In saying that if you like Chricton I'd buy him now and get set for his big game. He's certainly passing the eye test even if his scores aren't reflecting that.

filthridden wrote:

Yeah sorry, no solutions here.

I'm leaving my 2RF/FRF as they are for now.

Fifita, JFH, Kikau
Arrow, RFM, Murray (Gos who is injured but not a priority)

Matterson definitely worth a look if he's not already in your halves.

I have all of those except Murray, who is another I am watching to see if he improves. Matterson is in my halves until Johnson and/or Cleary are less broken.
Or maybe I should just go DCE instead