2018 NRL.com Fantasy Thread Part 31

Milchcow wrote:


Exactly right. I'd expect a 20-30 minute bench hooker to out PPM a 60 minute hooker most of the time

100% agree.

Just to clarify though, the calculations I did earlier on Rein were based on his PPM in previous years when playing big minutes. As pointed out, this may not necessarily translate to the current roll at the Titans, but on balance I think 0.6ppm for Rein is probably about right, perhaps a touch lower if he goes 80min, but probably about right in the 60-65 min range based on previous years. Also, let's be honest, if Rein goes 80min I highly doubt he will be scoring at a level which means the decision to bring him in was a poor one!!

StormTrooper96 wrote:

Only one I'm worried about there is the Storm game.
We all know you can't do much tackling when you're standing underneath your own goalposts every 5mins waiting for Cam to kick the goal.

filthridden wrote:


Only one I'm worried about there is the Storm game.
We all know you can't do much tackling when you're standing underneath your own goalposts every 5mins waiting for Cam to kick the goal.

We aren't scoring to convincingly this year. Only against, Cows Knights and Bulldogs have we scored more than 10

I'm bringing in both Gos and Rein this week,hoping they pay off. Needed to free up some cash too and TPJ can have 1 more chance to sway me otherwise he will become Surgess next week.
Anything else I should consider?
274k bank
Smith
Fifita TPJ
Murray Arrow RFM
DCE Mbye
Mitchell Isaako
Tedesco Ponga Thompson

Cook
Kikau
JFH
Rein

Rochow
Gosiewski
JMK
Fine

Have cover if both Fifita and Murray don't play

So does Rein get 80?

I’m thinking either could happen,

Elegy into Hooker and Carty 1/2s

Or I see Simpkins in the 21 could he come into the 17.

Gos worth bringing in over Rein? Will probably have to play him

THEGAME wrote:So does Rein get 80?

I’m thinking either could happen,

Elegy into Hooker and Carty 1/2s

Or I see Simpkins in the 21 could he come into the 17.

Rein will play big minutes. Maybe 80 maybe not. Biggest question for me is when Peats comes back. Could easily see Peats only missing 3 weeks and Rein not having enough time to make cash

Thought about it long hard, the cons outweigh the pros with Rein. I think I'll pass. Especially with my remaining trades. I did a road map on how I'll be introducing my final 17 and I'll need every bit of my trades. So wasting a trade for a CHANCE of making 150k odd isn't worth it to me.

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Gos worth bringing in over Rein? Will probably have to play him

Rein - News is Peats out 4-6. Coach seems to think he will be back within 3-4. Could go big and match his PPM. Coach has said he will play 80 depending on how the game is going. May make some money if he can go big over 3-4 games. Hookers don't naturally score tries too often so might be no chance of a pie.

Gosiewski - 80 minutes 2RF. Low PPM but could be getting into it now after a neat 36. BE of 8 so money to be made. Has a secure-ish spot and more chance of jagging a try here and there. Is way to good for reserves so once he brings that into NRL might be good news for owners. Cheaper than Rein

Liverpool_Bulldog wrote:Gos worth bringing in over Rein? Will probably have to play him

Not if you have to play him. Can't see him matching Rein's scores

Krump wrote:
Not if you have to play him. Can't see him matching Rein's scores

Or I play JMK, Maloney, Isaako.

I played 2 of those over Gosie last week (JMK and Isaako) and would play Maloney over him too based on ceiling.

Pleasantly surprised that Gosie managed a career high though.. Largely due to all the ball Tigers had, especially in the 1st half where Gosie made a lot of his 31 tackles.

I am giving Rein a miss. He may make some decent coin, but he isn't a keeper and not quite the kind of cash cow I am interested in. I want as much money as I can RIGHT NOW, to collect these falling guns before they go back up (Smith, Lolo, Fifi). So if I bring in a basement-priced cow for him and he makes 150k over the next 4 weeks, then Rein would need to make 300k just to match the amount I have in my kitty with the same amount of trades (and that is not going to happen). Got a feeling my logic on this just gave Milch a mild aneurysm, but I yam what i yam

Where my Sharkies fans at? I need the skinny on the three starting newbies at the club.
My logic on this is so terrible that I am even passing up Gosi and Su'a for someone like a Kurt Dillon because the extra 80k that provides is that important to me right now. Who can help my extremely short-sighted schemes by giving me the low down on Dillon, Sorenson and Uele? I have gone Dillon purely because he already made the side before the injuries, so job security seems a bit better.

Now who wants to join the queue to tell me how bad of an idea this is? Take ticket and get in line!

StormTrooper96 wrote:

Rein - News is Peats out 4-6. Coach seems to think he will be back within 3-4. Could go big and match his PPM. Coach has said he will play 80 depending on how the game is going. May make some money if he can go big over 3-4 games. Hookers don't naturally score tries too often so might be no chance of a pie.

Gosiewski - 80 minutes 2RF. Low PPM but could be getting into it now after a neat 36. BE of 8 so money to be made. Has a secure-ish spot and more chance of jagging a try here and there. Is way to good for reserves so once he brings that into NRL might be good news for owners. Cheaper than Rein

Gosie will make about the same amount of $$$ as Rein in 3-4 weeks ..

Rein would score ok to be in your 17
I think Gosie would be good for the EMG bench as a good back-up and a cash cow

I'm gonna miss Rein, Gos and Matterson in this week.

Chewie wrote:

Gosie will make about the same amount of $$$ as Rein in 3-4 weeks ..

Rein would score ok to be in your 17
I think Gosie would be good for the EMG bench as a good back-up and a cash cow

Gossie will be in my EMG, and if Murray plays Rein will be EMG also so I think I will pass on Rein

When it Reins it pours

Mearcats wrote:Ok, to be clear, I am not advising against bringing Rein in. I am simply trying to look at it from a tactical viewpoint. I only have 27 trades remaining. I have Inglis, Lodge and Doughy in my side that need to go A$AP Rocky.

On first looks, a switch straight from Doughy to Rein makes perfect sense. But looking further, there is every chance in three weeks that he goes back to the bench. We all know Peats is a tough bugger and he is going to want to get back as soon as he can. He's got a Blues jersey to fight to retain and he well and truly has a fight on his hands.

IF, and I intentionally caps'd that, Rein could go at 60 for three weeks he'd make 198k. Good money. Worth two trades in three weeks though? In my instance I may be better of bringing in someone like Su'a or Gos who has better security. Will be a slower earner and still need to be traded out but if they get 8-10 weeks they should earn more overall.

It's purely a time frame thing for me. And that one week is becoming somewhat of a stumbling block for my liking. If Peats was 8-10 weeks or even 6-8 weeks outside it'd be a different story. With the information that it's 4-6 weeks MAXIMUM and potential return after two to three out I'm struggling to see how I can make that work.

Keep in mind, I'm the conservative type. And my team value in comparison to a lot of you guys reflects that. Fortune favours the brave but not a risk I think I'm willing to take.

Good analysis Mearcats, but I think you're underestimating the effect of faster cash generation. If he generates the cash sooner, you can upgrade to a gun sooner and get the extra points from that upgrade sooner. Also as Rippin alluded to, I think you're double counting the trade to call it 2 trades. It's one trade to bring in Rein and 1 trade to bring in a gun or another cow (when we trade out Rein). That second trade is required regardless of whether it Rein or Gosi that you're bringing in unless you think Gosi is a keeper.

Your response inspired me to actually compare expectations and this is what I estimate:

Assume Rein for 3 weeks averaging around 50 gets me the following:
50 points per week for my team. This is probably a 10 point upgrade over my lowest interchange, so 30 extra points over three weeks.
Then I get $150k of extra cash. That can be used to upgrade someone else for an extra 10 points per week for the remaining 17 weeks. So an extra 170 points from the extra cash made.
Total 200 extra points over the season. (note, I have assume Rein is traded out prior to bye rounds so there's no benefit for bye scoring here).

Assume Gosi until Rd 14 averaging 35:
Takes a place in my emergencies rather than interchange, so I don't get his points.
Helps me fill a position in Rd13, so I get his 35 points there.
Makes approximately $230k which allows me to upgrade to a keeper Gun in Rd 14. That give me an extra 15 points per week over the final 9 weeks of the year. So an extra 135 points from the cash made.
Total of 170 points.

So even if Rein only gets 3 weeks and averages 50, he's the better choice to me.