2017 NRL.com Fantasy thread part 40

for some reason, i feel intent on getting in Tyrell Fuimaono - is he seen as a geniune cash cow? i do have more pressing trades id rather should be doing with norman/tturbo/chn sitting there,

Chippy wrote:Anyone thinkng if picking up James Roberts for t turbo? Nice pod with 4.5% ownership....

Trbo's injury means Roberts a strong possibility for Origin?

No point running out 4 props 5 second rowers and 3 halves next week if you can't get them all into your 17

Stinkbug wrote:for some reason, i feel intent on getting in Tyrell Fuimaono - is he seen as a geniune cash cow? i do have more pressing trades id rather should be doing with norman/tturbo/chn sitting there,

CHN to Fui is a decent trade if you feel you have to have him

Archer wrote:I'm keeping Norman. Not going to accept an injury the very week i brought him in, nope, put him in the team he can run it out. Instead I'll trade out Tturbo since i was considering doing that anyway prior to the injury. I'm actually thinking i might as well go all in on the heart-breakers in green and bring in Croker, although it's not great for byes I could do with the money and now I'm outside the top 5k you gotta take some risks.

I'm thinking about sorta doing this but I think Norman gets traded to CWalker next week for bye pionts.
So definite on Tturbo to Croker.
And thinking Faufusi to Kaupau so I don't miss that bus.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:

CHN to Fui is a decent trade if you feel you have to have him

im not sure at all on him just have a gut feel (based on absolutely nothing at all) - but that is a decent trade. will wait to TLT to finalise i think.

SI wrote:

Whobis your other hooker? It's an interesting scenario but are you going to have no hookrrs in some bye rounds?

McInnes. Yeah that's what I was thinking,yes it would leave me short for the bye rounds but I could always bring in smith again later. I'm just not sure if it's worth it

Flipping Norman to Guth rather than Walker will allow me to get Gal for Yates next week (downgrading Smith for Friend until Round 20) and play the following Round 17. Guth playing 13 really helps as well.

Friend, Brailey
Graham, JWH
Surgess, Mannering, Gallen, Crichton, Whitehead
SJ, KNiko
Aubs, Fui
RTS, Guth, Cotric

If Rennings plays or I decide to dump Slater I'll have 17. Round 15 less good...

Welshy wrote:
Yea mate will swap Smith back in R19

Fark, i just had everything typed up and lost it. 
Ok short form version: You're options are to pick up someone from Bunnies (Cook i assume since Farah likely origin), Eels (Kaysa) or Storm (Brandon Smith maybe?) who will play both rd's or choose one of the high averaging hookers who only plays 1 rd and hope they score more in that one rd than the others would in two. 

- I had Kaysa scores typed up, but cbf doing that again so check yourself, however when guessing his total score for the two Rds I'd put his floor at ~60, most likely scoring 70-80 and if you get extra lucky maybe 100+. 

- Cook is a lot harder to tell, only one rd playing 80 (which if you pick him its because you hope he gets 80 with farah out) and he scored 50+, though that doesn't seem unreasonable when you look at his ppm in the games he plays around 50mins. So maybe you have his floor at 70-80, likely around 90-100 and 110+ if you get lucky. So to me that looks like a higher reward, but he comes at a higher risk. The other scary part about him is whether or not he would hold his value (considering he could have a week like this week with low mins) for the rd's in between.

- BSmith is the biggest risk of all and completely unknown. Doubt you'll go this path and it would require someoene to check his scores in the lower grades to get any feel (I assume he plays 80... but would he if only playing 2 weeks as a rookie?). The upside of him i guess is that if he was named, you would also likely make a little extra cash.

Looking at the three options above, it looks to me like picking someone who plays 2 rd's is the way to go, doubtful any of the guys playing one week will score much more than 60 that week, which is about the floor of the two week guys so you get more upside there. Personally (given where I am and how i like to play) i'd take the bigger Risk+Reward option and go for Cook, though I'd wait to see Farah named in NSW first.

Archer wrote:
Fark, i just had everything typed up and lost it. 
Ok short form version: You're options are to pick up someone from Bunnies (Cook i assume since Farah likely origin), Eels (Kaysa) or Storm (Brandon Smith maybe?) who will play both rd's or choose one of the high averaging hookers who only plays 1 rd and hope they score more in that one rd than the others would in two. 


- BSmith is the biggest risk of all and completely unknown. Doubt you'll go this path and it would require someoene to check his scores in the lower grades to get any feel (I assume he plays 80... but would he if only playing 2 weeks as a rookie?). The upside of him i guess is that if he was named, you would also likely make a little extra cash.

Brandon Smith is not a good choice, even if he is guaranteed 80 minutes in rounds 15 and 18

Because he will be getting approx 0 minutes in the other weeks around origin, and you'd lose a valuable hooking spot for the week you are carrying him without him playing

I'm after a bit of advice.

I've got Norman and TTurbo sidelined. My league doesn't appear to play during the Bye weeks so that's not a concern for me. I'm just wondering who I should swap them for? I was thinking C.Walker for Norman and either Gutherson or Hopoate for TTurbo - does that sound good? It's my first season doing fantasy so any help would be much appreciated!

Archer wrote:
Fark, i just had everything typed up and lost it. 
Ok short form version: You're options are to pick up someone from Bunnies (Cook i assume since Farah likely origin), Eels (Kaysa) or Storm (Brandon Smith maybe?) who will play both rd's or choose one of the high averaging hookers who only plays 1 rd and hope they score more in that one rd than the others would in two. 

- I had Kaysa scores typed up, but cbf doing that again so check yourself, however when guessing his total score for the two Rds I'd put his floor at ~60, most likely scoring 70-80 and if you get extra lucky maybe 100+. 

- Cook is a lot harder to tell, only one rd playing 80 (which if you pick him its because you hope he gets 80 with farah out) and he scored 50+, though that doesn't seem unreasonable when you look at his ppm in the games he plays around 50mins. So maybe you have his floor at 70-80, likely around 90-100 and 110+ if you get lucky. So to me that looks like a higher reward, but he comes at a higher risk. The other scary part about him is whether or not he would hold his value (considering he could have a week like this week with low mins) for the rd's in between.

- BSmith is the biggest risk of all and completely unknown. Doubt you'll go this path and it would require someoene to check his scores in the lower grades to get any feel (I assume he plays 80... but would he if only playing 2 weeks as a rookie?). The upside of him i guess is that if he was named, you would also likely make a little extra cash.

Looking at the three options above, it looks to me like picking someone who plays 2 rd's is the way to go, doubtful any of the guys playing one week will score much more than 60 that week, which is about the floor of the two week guys so you get more upside there. Personally (given where I am and how i like to play) i'd take the bigger Risk+Reward option and go for Cook, though I'd wait to see Farah named in NSW first.

Cheers for the detailed response mate, I was going Cook but the loss of value in the interim rounds with Farah back and potentially back to 80 worries me, Plus I alread have Surgess, Crichton and Walker 3 decent scorers missing R13 so losing a hooking spot with Cook would hurt me

Pritchard is the guy I'm most likely to go with...I think...I might even dump Macca after R12 is KNiko starts appearing on the interchange

Kaufusi - JGraham this week I think, not getting Gallen for same reason above with lack of decent scoring R13 players

If Field is named to start against the Warriors would you start him over Lamb. The Warriors defense always has holes in it & Field with his pace could really utilise that. Even against the Sharks he nearly broke the line a couple of times & his acceleration off the mark is impressive.

nrl360 basically saying Moses to the Eels this week & he might play but weren't certain but you'd imagine with Norman out he'll play.

wolfking wrote:Fucking hell!  Can't even fucking do advanced trades on the fucking PC because the fucking army ad is in the fucking way blocking the little fucking cross thingy!!!!  Fucks sake!!  I respect and admire the army and everything they and the good people involved do for us and our country but fucking hell!  I wonder if I decide to join that would make the ad fuck off?

Have you got ad blocker @wolfking?

Thought I'd ask the Kelly question gain? Worth holding for later in the bye rounds?? Not really worth the trade out I don't think.

Atm thinking Normz and Turbo to Walker and Guth

With so much talk of trading out Smith over origin I thought I would bring this back again

**All data correct as of 17/04/2017**
The Bye Period Hooker Conundrum feat Cameron Smith
As we all know Smith has consistently been the top dog of fantasy. For short periods of time other hookers have come close or even exceeded his scoring in the short term but it always comes back to Smith at the top of the food chain. Yesterday I touched out the merits of trading him out for Cook but this will be much more detailed so if you don't want to read a wall of numbers look away now.
Between round 12 and 19 Smith plays 4 games. Round 13, 14, 16 and 17. Round 13 and 16 will be backing up from origin so his past stats during this time will have an impact on his keep-ability over this period. Lets dig into the stats.
2012: Smith averaged 67.73 in 78 minutes. Round 12 backing up from Origin 1 Smith scored 48 points in 58 minutes. Round 15 backing up from Origin 2 Smith managed to score 78 points in 80 minutes.
2013: Smith averaged 70.81 in 80.14 minutes. Round 13 backing up from Origin 1 Smith posted 66 points in 80 minutes. This was his only post Origin performance due to Storm byes.
2014: Smith averaged 65.7 in 78.7 minutes. Round 12 backing up from Origin 1 Smith scored 67 points in 80 minutes. Round 15 backing up from Origin 2 Smith scored 53 points in 71 minutes. Round 18 backing up from Origin 3 Smith scored 54 points in 80 minutes.
2015: Smith averaged 61.3 and 79.7 minutes. Round 12 backing up from Origin Smith scored 49 in 73 minutes. Round 15 backing up from Origin 2 Smith scored 72 in 80 minutes. Round 18 backing up from Origin 3 Smith scored 42 points in 80 minutes.
2016: Smith averaged 66.6 points in 79.4 minutes. Round 13 backing up from Origin 1 Smith scored 58 points in 80 minutes. Round 16 backing up from Origin 2 Smith scored 60 in 80 minutes. Round 19 backing up from Origin 3 Smith scored 54 in 80 minutes.
Looking at all this Smith has averaged 58.4 points in 76.83 minutes. He has only missed meaningful minutes in 1 game. We will use this number as his "post origin average" from here on out.
This year Smith is averaging 63 points. we can reasonable assume he will continue to score this in non bye games.
Round 13, a round where many solid bye planners may be short on numbers Smith is going to give us 58.4 points. Round 14 Smith is going to give us 63 points. Round 16 where most players will be fielding atleast 17 players Smith will give us 58.4 points. Round 17 Smith will give us his usual 63 points. This gives us a total of 243 points from Smith between round 12 and 19. Let's look at some other options during this period.
Damien Cook: Currently averaging 34.1 points per game. If Farah is selected for Origin we can reasonably assume Cook scores 45-50 in bye rounds. Round 12 Cook gives us a 50. Round 13 Cook has the bye. Round 14 with Farah back Cook manages to post his season average of 34 points this gives us 84 points between 12 and 14 which is easily outscored by Smith's 121 this suggests it may not be worth making this trade in round 12. Over the rest of the bye period Cook plays 4 games to Smith 2 in some very difficult bye rounds, where Smith plays in easily coverable rounds. Cook will give us 50 in round 15, 34 points in round 17 giving us 84 points between 15 and 18. In this period Smith will score 121. However Cook misses an easily coverable Round 16 where only Rabbitohs and Eels have the bye so it can be reasonable assumed Cook will be covered by another 40 point scorer giving a total of 124 points, 3 more than Smith. Cook then plays both 18 and 19 which are very difficult to cover and most won't have 17 in both. Cook gives 50 and 34 during these games that Smith would not. Between round 15 and 19 Smith scored 121 with Cook(and round 16 replacement) score 208 points. Is this worth 2 trades? You be the judge.
Jake Friend: Currently averaging 42 points per game. If Pearce is selected for Origin, Watson should move to the halves. With Cordner/Guerra/Napa likely to play Origin Carter will be required to fill in the pack and with Matterson injured there is no one left to cover hooker leaving Friend to play 80. In games of atleast 70 minutes last year Jake Friend averaged 62.3 points per game. In round 12 Friend gives us 62 points. In round 13 Friend gives us 42. In round 13 Friend gives us 42 for a total of 146. In this time Smith will score 121. Advantage Friend. Friend then has a bye in round 15 before giving us 42 in round 16 and 17 for a total of 84. Smith in this time scores 121 taking a huge chunk out of the advantage Friend gained in the early bye rounds. Friend then plays round 17 for 62 points where Smith does not before also missing round 19. This gives Friend a total advantage of 50 points over the byes. Worth 2 trades?
Cameron McInnes: Currenly averaging 55.7. Misses round 12 so not worth trading until atleast round 15. From round 15-19 McInnes only misses one game in round 18. Round 15 McInnes will give us 55. Round 16 McInnes will give us 55. Round 17 McInnes will give us 55. Round 18 McInnes and Smith both have the bye. Round 19 McInnes will give us 55. McInnes total between 15 and 19 is 220. Smith total is 121. Worth the trades?

Kaysa Pritchard: Scores look on the way up so I'll use his 3 game average of 45. Pritchard plays 12/13/14/15/18. Assuming 45 in each. Pritchard gives 135 between 12 and 15 which is about 24 points over Smith. Gives another 45 over Smith in round 15 taking the total to 69. Misses the easy to cover round 16 where you will have another 40 scorer slot in so only lose 22 to Smith there taking us to 47. Scores another 45 in 17 where Smith scores 63 taking the advantage to 29. Scores another 45 in 18 where smith is unavailable bringing the total advantage over Smith to 74 points which is slightly better than Friend but still less than Cook and McInnes. The upside is that his scores are improving weekly and he doesn't require anyone to be selected for Origin to post these scores(like Friend and Cook do)
TL;DR Trading Smith to McInnes in round 15 looks like the best option over the byes as McInnes isn't relying on others being selected for origin to be a good option. It is yet to be seen whether it is worth the 2 trades to bank 100 points over the byes.

White Lightning wrote:nrl360 basically saying Moses to the Eels this week & he might play but weren't certain but you'd imagine with Norman out he'll play.

I've heard this a lot but really I think until there's concrete proof he's going it's not going to happen for a reason or two. First of all the Tigers aren't going to let somebody under contract go to another team and benefit them unless they get something in return. A few fringe players or whatever, they're not going to give him up for free especially since the Warriors knocked back an early release for Lolohea.

Ah actually that's the only reason I can think of. The Tigers can demote Moses to reserve grade if they want, there's no sense in giving him up to another team though if they get no compensation for it.

multiple.scoregasms wrote:With so much talk of trading out Smith over origin I thought I would bring this back again

**All data correct as of 17/04/2017**
The Bye Period Hooker Conundrum feat Cameron Smith
As we all know Smith has consistently been the top dog of fantasy. For short periods of time other hookers have come close or even exceeded his scoring in the short term but it always comes back to Smith at the top of the food chain. Yesterday I touched out the merits of trading him out for Cook but this will be much more detailed so if you don't want to read a wall of numbers look away now.
Between round 12 and 19 Smith plays 4 games. Round 13, 14, 16 and 17. Round 13 and 16 will be backing up from origin so his past stats during this time will have an impact on his keep-ability over this period. Lets dig into the stats.
2012: Smith averaged 67.73 in 78 minutes. Round 12 backing up from Origin 1 Smith scored 48 points in 58 minutes. Round 15 backing up from Origin 2 Smith managed to score 78 points in 80 minutes.
2013: Smith averaged 70.81 in 80.14 minutes. Round 13 backing up from Origin 1 Smith posted 66 points in 80 minutes. This was his only post Origin performance due to Storm byes.
2014: Smith averaged 65.7 in 78.7 minutes. Round 12 backing up from Origin 1 Smith scored 67 points in 80 minutes. Round 15 backing up from Origin 2 Smith scored 53 points in 71 minutes. Round 18 backing up from Origin 3 Smith scored 54 points in 80 minutes.
2015: Smith averaged 61.3 and 79.7 minutes. Round 12 backing up from Origin Smith scored 49 in 73 minutes. Round 15 backing up from Origin 2 Smith scored 72 in 80 minutes. Round 18 backing up from Origin 3 Smith scored 42 points in 80 minutes.
2016: Smith averaged 66.6 points in 79.4 minutes. Round 13 backing up from Origin 1 Smith scored 58 points in 80 minutes. Round 16 backing up from Origin 2 Smith scored 60 in 80 minutes. Round 19 backing up from Origin 3 Smith scored 54 in 80 minutes.
Looking at all this Smith has averaged 58.4 points in 76.83 minutes. He has only missed meaningful minutes in 1 game. We will use this number as his "post origin average" from here on out.
This year Smith is averaging 63 points. we can reasonable assume he will continue to score this in non bye games.
Round 13, a round where many solid bye planners may be short on numbers Smith is going to give us 58.4 points. Round 14 Smith is going to give us 63 points. Round 16 where most players will be fielding atleast 17 players Smith will give us 58.4 points. Round 17 Smith will give us his usual 63 points. This gives us a total of 243 points from Smith between round 12 and 19. Let's look at some other options during this period.
Damien Cook: Currently averaging 34.1 points per game. If Farah is selected for Origin we can reasonably assume Cook scores 45-50 in bye rounds. Round 12 Cook gives us a 50. Round 13 Cook has the bye. Round 14 with Farah back Cook manages to post his season average of 34 points this gives us 84 points between 12 and 14 which is easily outscored by Smith's 121 this suggests it may not be worth making this trade in round 12. Over the rest of the bye period Cook plays 4 games to Smith 2 in some very difficult bye rounds, where Smith plays in easily coverable rounds. Cook will give us 50 in round 15, 34 points in round 17 giving us 84 points between 15 and 18. In this period Smith will score 121. However Cook misses an easily coverable Round 16 where only Rabbitohs and Eels have the bye so it can be reasonable assumed Cook will be covered by another 40 point scorer giving a total of 124 points, 3 more than Smith. Cook then plays both 18 and 19 which are very difficult to cover and most won't have 17 in both. Cook gives 50 and 34 during these games that Smith would not. Between round 15 and 19 Smith scored 121 with Cook(and round 16 replacement) score 208 points. Is this worth 2 trades? You be the judge.
Jake Friend: Currently averaging 42 points per game. If Pearce is selected for Origin, Watson should move to the halves. With Cordner/Guerra/Napa likely to play Origin Carter will be required to fill in the pack and with Matterson injured there is no one left to cover hooker leaving Friend to play 80. In games of atleast 70 minutes last year Jake Friend averaged 62.3 points per game. In round 12 Friend gives us 62 points. In round 13 Friend gives us 42. In round 13 Friend gives us 42 for a total of 146. In this time Smith will score 121. Advantage Friend. Friend then has a bye in round 15 before giving us 42 in round 16 and 17 for a total of 84. Smith in this time scores 121 taking a huge chunk out of the advantage Friend gained in the early bye rounds. Friend then plays round 17 for 62 points where Smith does not before also missing round 19. This gives Friend a total advantage of 50 points over the byes. Worth 2 trades?
Cameron McInnes: Currenly averaging 55.7. Misses round 12 so not worth trading until atleast round 15. From round 15-19 McInnes only misses one game in round 18. Round 15 McInnes will give us 55. Round 16 McInnes will give us 55. Round 17 McInnes will give us 55. Round 18 McInnes and Smith both have the bye. Round 19 McInnes will give us 55. McInnes total between 15 and 19 is 220. Smith total is 121. Worth the trades?

Kaysa Pritchard: Scores look on the way up so I'll use his 3 game average of 45. Pritchard plays 12/13/14/15/18. Assuming 45 in each. Pritchard gives 135 between 12 and 15 which is about 24 points over Smith. Gives another 45 over Smith in round 15 taking the total to 69. Misses the easy to cover round 16 where you will have another 40 scorer slot in so only lose 22 to Smith there taking us to 47. Scores another 45 in 17 where Smith scores 63 taking the advantage to 29. Scores another 45 in 18 where smith is unavailable bringing the total advantage over Smith to 74 points which is slightly better than Friend but still less than Cook and McInnes. The upside is that his scores are improving weekly and he doesn't require anyone to be selected for Origin to post these scores(like Friend and Cook do)
TL;DR Trading Smith to McInnes in round 15 looks like the best option over the byes as McInnes isn't relying on others being selected for origin to be a good option. It is yet to be seen whether it is worth the 2 trades to bank 100 points over the byes.

The way I see it if you're other hooker isn't a gun (like me with Cook), trading Smith isn't two extra trades, it's one. I mean I will eventually be trading Cook unless Farah does his ACL. Trading Smith to say McInnes and then Cook to Smith is only one more trade than I will have to do anyway. Make sense.