QLD State of Origin 2019 Thread

Oz Sport Mad wrote:

I was just pointing out something I found funny to be honest.....

Anyway, a lot of talking about betting markets, purely based on a throwaway shit-stirring comment by you which was basically a standard tactic to try and downplay any chance of your team winning.

So back to Pieman being a weirdo......the strangest thing in this whole discussion is his claim that he has bet on QLD for the last 5/6 years.
   
Now I love a punt but I can tell you there is fuck all chancce I'll bet on NSW regardless of their chances.

I never downplay the chance of my team winning, I give a logical and reasoned response and opinion always. What I've said about the two teams are the cold hard facts that are undisputed.

I've got absolutely no issue with him taking the value on a contest. It's actually very smart. Being able to seperate your hearts desire for victory and your desire to take the overs on a pretty sure thing. His bet doesn't make the result any more likely one way or the other. It's why I've actually won a few tipping comps over the last few years, living in Canberra and supporting Parra, I'm prepared to tip against both more often than not as opposed to other supporters of those clubs.

betting against your side is a smart move. You lose, you win cash. You win, the loss doesnt hurt as much.

Especially when QLD winning was one of the few things in sport you could guarantee for the last 10 years or so. Almost as much of a guarantee as OSM screaming incidental head contact when someone shoulder charges someone in the head.

IMO they were even more likely to win when NSW were favs.

1. Billy Slater
2. Valentine Holmes
3. Greg Inglis (c)
4. Will Chambers
5. Dane Gagai
6. Cameron Munster
7. Ben Hunt
8. Dylan Napa
9. Andrew McCullough
10. Jarrod Wallace
11. Gavin Cooper
12. Felise Kaufusi
13. Josh McGuire

Interchange:
14. Michael Morgan
15. Josh Papalii
16. Coen Hess
17. Jai Arrow

good call not picking scott and boyd, some will mimic the loyalty thing. but there is being loyal and then there is being stupid. Scott & boyd have struggled and the guys picked over them are playing good footy

QLD's spine still looks better imo

Mcguire a big in for the battle up front


Goal kicking issue can't be underestimated, NSW have in the past learnt that the hardway when JT has nailed them from the sideline and QLD have won games by 1-4 points on back of it, a few of those guys have attempted kicks but career rates are:

hunt: 69%
Munster 56%
Holmes 72%


and none have had to do to much of it

Very happy with the side.

Scott and Boyd have been immense for us over the years but they just aren't back to full fitness as yet.
I certainly wouldn't say their Origin careers are over but they need to get over their previous injuries and start playing good footy again before they can be considered.

Only contentious selections I can see are:

1. Gagai over Oates: Oates has been amazing the last few weeks but just simply left his run too late IMO, plus Gagai was the player of the series last year so I can live with this one.

2. Josh McGuire: Given the NSW selections, I don't think we can carry anyone. Hoping he is fully match fit but I have my doubts.

3. BHunt over DCE: Again I can see the justification if they went for DCE but personally I'm glad they went for BHunt as I rate him far more highly than DCE.

OZ, tbh, I thought Hunt's good form had been going on longer than DCE's little purple patch. Given the negative bank account DCE seems to have with the selectors, I reckon he would have to have a flawless season, win a premiership, and then get picked the year AFTER for QLD. Maybe.

QLD loyalty hahahahaha
HAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHHAHAHHAHHAHAHAHHAHAH

I said it last year too - never ever, everrrrrrrrrrrrrr spruke QLD "loyalty" ever again.

Its easy as fuck to pick the same side when you are winning, fuck

QLD loyalty... hahahaha fucking SMD

Slater out!

Who comes in? 18th man Mbye? I hope it's him not Ponga, or do they call out for Boyd, or does GI go to FB, gagai centre and either Boyd or Oates on to wing.

Ponga straight to FB, and no other backline change is worst case scenario for NSW.best case is Mbye straight in at FB

Ice wrote:Slater out!

Who comes in? 18th man Mbye? I hope it's him not Ponga, or do they call out for Boyd, or does GI go to FB, gagai centre and either Boyd or Oates on to wing.

Ponga straight to FB, and no other backline change is worst case scenario for NSW.best case is Mbye straight in at FB

Ponga has a stomach bug, Boyd has diarohea, Mbye suffering dehydration and Oates rolled his ankle opening the fridge. Pretty sure their bringing in that young kid who plays FB for Redcliffe.

No Worries wrote:

Ponga has a stomach bug, Boyd has diarohea, Mbye suffering dehydration and Oates rolled his ankle opening the fridge. Pretty sure their bringing in that young kid who plays FB for Redcliffe.

We'll give it our best shot obviously but hard to see a QLD victory against these sort of odds.....

I think Morgan will defs start


Any of ponga, milf or mbye on the bench. Mbye probably the most versatile but least threatening, milf has had some big games under his belt so that a + for him over ponga but maybe a bench role is a good Segway for ponga’s origin career

yeah surely morgan starts and milf comes onto the bench

I mean, boyd should just come straight back in but QLD loyalty is a fucking myth so they wont bring him back

code delta wrote:Anything wrong with Munster to FB?

This is my biggest fear as a NSW supporter.

Why on gods green earth would they do anything other than a straight swap in the FB position? To switch Munster, or Inglis or Morgan means you have to replace them. I hope they do mix it up, but the logical and least disruptive option is Boyd straight in, the brave new world, freak the shit out of NSW option is Ponga, the we don't really want to win option is Mbye.

Ice wrote:Why on gods green earth would they do anything other than a straight swap in the FB position? To switch Munster, or Inglis or Morgan means you have to replace them. I hope they do mix it up, but the logical and least disruptive option is Boyd straight in, the brave new world, freak the shit out of NSW option is Ponga, the we don't really want to win option is Mbye.

Even I'll admit, Boyd is clearly not back to full fitness mate and regardless of QLD remaining loyal where possible, you just can't carry blokes at this level.

I imagine it was always the plan to bring Ponga into camp post the weekend's game, so on that basis I'll assume Milf is the man to slot in.

Based on that assumption, my preference would be Munster to FB (plays both positions equally as well IMO, if not better at FB), with Milf and Hunt to combine in the halves (GF combination).

I hope they bring in Milf, lock in game 1 for NSW if they do.

I agree Boyd is not at his best, but if he ever was as good as some would have us believe, it really should be a no brainer to play him in the 1 at this level.

Ice wrote:I hope they bring in Milf, lock in game 1 for NSW if they do.

I agree Boyd is not at his best, but if he ever was as good as some would have us believe, it really should be a no brainer to play him in the 1 at this level.

Nice try Ice.

Obviously Boyd's current condition and associated form has no relevance to how good he was a year or so ago.....

Similarly we wouldn't expect your lover boy Jarryd's current condition and associated form to have any relevance to how good he was when he was last playing well, in 2009.

Fair enough, Personally I always thought Boyd was poo anyway and never has a player been more blessed to play in the era he has with the people he has. But it does blow up the myth that Qld is more loyal than NSW, that seriously is a massive myth. It's a LOT easier to be loyal when you are winning constantly but nobody north of the border seems to have acknowledged this. Just look at the changes Qld made to their Origin sides when there were getting beaten.......if anyone can remember that far back........

QLD trying to save face and still play the loyaty card by suggesting the only reason they didn't pick Boyd is that he's holidaying with the missus in Queenstown. Oh but he said he would cancel and blah blah blah. If you get to see the timeline of Kevvie trying to cover up the Slater injury it's pure futon bed gold.