HomeSoylentGreen wrote:Does Jack Williams benefit from BHU's absence?
A little, but not from his own inept nature
NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 42 - Did Someone Say Aubussson :heart:
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 42 - Did Someone Say Aubussson :heart:
by Revraiser Tue May 02, 2023 8:54 am
A little, but not from his own inept nature
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 42 - Did Someone Say Aubussson :heart:
by Guest Tue May 02, 2023 9:05 am
Revraiser wrote:
A little, but not from his own inept nature
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 42 - Did Someone Say Aubussson :heart:
by syn13 Tue May 02, 2023 9:07 am
Jumping Marlin wrote:Horsburgh is potentially the kind of player I miss every year. So, just checking to see what I am missing:
- What Minutes Will He Play and Who's Minutes Is He Getting :
In 2022, Elliot started lock in 13 games. With average of 54.9mins, not once did he play over 70. He played over 65mins only once.
If he is an Elliott replacement, does that mean he gets around 54 minutes too? Or is he different, and he gets more? Say 70, like last 3 weeks?
In 2023, Tapine (49.3mins), Papa (47.0 as starting prop) are about the same as 2022. If Horse gets 70mins, then that leaves only 73mins for 3 reserves (24 mins each). Is it that there is no strong fourth reserve this year, and that's why Horse gets the minutes?
- 2:
<30mins = 1.03ppm
30-40mins = 1.01
40-50mins = 1.00
50-60 mins = 0.93 (a marked drop here)
60+ = 0.90
He has only had 5 games over 60, so a small sample size too. If I calculated this before last weeks game, easily his highest ever fantasy score, the 60+ would be 0.85ppm. Personally, I think that's more realistic.
- 3:
> If he gets Elliot's minutes and keeps his historic ppm, he'll score 51. Not a keeper.
> If he gets 70 minutes (Elliot + 15), and keeps 0.9ppm, he'll score 63. A keeper.
> If he gets 70 mins at 0.85ppm (more likely imo), he'll score 60. A keeper.
Personally, I keep thinking best case is perhaps 65mins at 0.85ppm = 55.
TLDR: To be worthwhile, Horse seems to need 10 more minutes than Elliot got as starting lock without much drop off in ppm. Why will get this?
I think you’re overthinking it, It’s not like Horse is being looked at coming off an anomaly week minutes-wise, he has gotten 15 more minutes than Elliot in the last 3 games with no influencing injuries involved, that about as much of a consistent sample as you’re likely to get in this game if your intention is to buy underpriced, of course there’s a chance minutes change if the Raiders start dropping games, but that goes for nearly every forward in every team, I think there’s more chance JDB drops minutes before Horse does.
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 42 - Did Someone Say Aubussson :heart:
by syn13 Tue May 02, 2023 9:19 am
Will be interesting to see if clubs are taking Suncorp’s surface into account when naming teams today, could be a few scheduled to return this week with leg-related injuries that get held back a week for fears of re-aggravation on a rough track.
wolfking
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 42 - Did Someone Say Aubussson :heart:
by wolfking Tue May 02, 2023 9:21 am
syn13 wrote:
I think you’re overthinking it, It’s not like Horse is being looked at coming off an anomaly week minutes-wise, he has gotten 15 more minutes than Elliot in the last 3 games with no influencing injuries involved, that about as much of a consistent sample as you’re likely to get in this game if your intention is to buy underpriced, of course there’s a chance minutes change if the Raiders start dropping games, but that goes for nearly every forward in every team,I think there’s more chance JDB drops minutes before Horse does.
Based on what?
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 42 - Did Someone Say Aubussson :heart:
by Finch Tue May 02, 2023 9:24 am
syn13 wrote:Will be interesting to see if clubs are taking Suncorp’s surface into account when naming teams today, could be a few scheduled to return this week with leg-related injuries that get held back a week for fears of re-aggravation on a rough track.
Yeah, even after 40 minutes of 1 game its been looking trash lately
Very glad Warriors are playing third and the first on Saturday, get in and get out of there
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 42 - Did Someone Say Aubussson :heart:
by Liverpool_Bulldog Tue May 02, 2023 9:26 am
Being almost bottom of the table and losing every game JDB has started there?wolfking wrote:
Based on what?
It probably doesn’t happen but that seems to be the reasoning most forward packs change perhaps
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 42 - Did Someone Say Aubussson :heart:
by Shady2K Tue May 02, 2023 9:30 am
Reports Lomax to be dropped
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 42 - Did Someone Say Aubussson :heart:
by Revraiser Tue May 02, 2023 9:32 am
Shady2K wrote:Reports Lomax to be dropped
Lmao, really. Yep that will sort the Dragons form out.
Last edited by Revraiser on Tue May 02, 2023 9:35 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 42 - Did Someone Say Aubussson :heart:
by Guest Tue May 02, 2023 9:32 am
Shady2K wrote:Reports Lomax to be dropped
I brought him in this week so would be lucky if they don’t name him today rather than finding out on game day
Bird to centre Hunt and BMM the second row?
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 42 - Did Someone Say Aubussson :heart:
by robelgordo Tue May 02, 2023 9:33 am
Shady2K wrote:Reports Lomax to be dropped
Huge if true
It feels like he's lost his way a bit - goalkicking is erratic (gone from one of the best to one of the worst), some of his decision making in attack has been poor for 1.5 seasons now (wrong pass options and errors), and while I think his defence is normally solid Averillo and one-legged Burns smoked that side last week.
Hoping he can bounce back, still think he's a more talented player than Campbell Graham
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 42 - Did Someone Say Aubussson :heart:
by syn13 Tue May 02, 2023 9:34 am
wolfking wrote:
Based on what?
Nothing concrete, 80 minute locks are just very rare, I can only think of Yeo and early season Harris of the top of my head, when Su’A returns from injury, both he and Bird are usually full-game edges and I don’t think 11,12 and 13 all playing 80 minutes is likely. To be clear I have him, so selfishly I hope it continues, but I expect he’ll settle somewhere in the 60-70 minute range at some stage
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 42 - Did Someone Say Aubussson :heart:
by robelgordo Tue May 02, 2023 9:34 am
MF wrote:
I brought him in this week so would be lucky if they don’t name him today rather than finding out on game day
Bird to centre Hunt and BMM the second row?
Hunt and BMM would be the worst second row combo in recent memory. Like I'm sure the Chargers, late-stage Magpies, or after readmission Souths had worse, but it's been awhile.
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 42 - Did Someone Say Aubussson :heart:
by the_great_wobbler Tue May 02, 2023 9:34 am
Shady2K wrote:Reports Lomax to be dropped
Wonder how bad their second choice goal kicker is
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 42 - Did Someone Say Aubussson :heart:
by robelgordo Tue May 02, 2023 9:36 am
the_great_wobbler wrote:
Wonder how bad their second choice goal kicker is
Think it's Bird.
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 42 - Did Someone Say Aubussson :heart:
by wolfking Tue May 02, 2023 9:37 am
the_great_wobbler wrote:
Wonder how bad their second choice goal kicker is
Hunt or Bird.
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 42 - Did Someone Say Aubussson :heart:
by wolfking Tue May 02, 2023 9:38 am
syn13 wrote:
Nothing concrete, 80 minute locks are just very rare, I can only think of Yeo and early season Harris of the top of my head, when Su’A returns from injury, both he and Bird are usually full-game edges and I don’t think 11,12 and 13 all playing 80 minutes is likely. To be clear I have him, so selfishly I hope it continues, but I expect he’ll settle somewhere in the 60-70 minute range at some stage
That's fair enough. I'll be getting one this week. Leaning JDB just because of the ownership aspect.
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 42 - Did Someone Say Aubussson :heart:
by Camo123 Tue May 02, 2023 9:41 am
Welsh Mafia wrote:Thanks @camo123 for the origin clarity.
For players in camp, that don't make the 17 on game day, is there a chance they make it to play in rounds 13/16/19?
Doesn’t look like this was answered but 18th man won’t play bye round either, the remainder of reserves usually play bye
However, Freddy usually picks a player on the bye as the 18th man
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 42 - Did Someone Say Aubussson :heart:
by mattnz Tue May 02, 2023 9:44 am
the_great_wobbler wrote:
Wonder how bad their second choice goal kicker is
Hunt has kicked goals in NRL before, but not for a while.
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Re: NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 42 - Did Someone Say Aubussson :heart:
by B/L Tue May 02, 2023 9:48 am
I can't believe the depth of goal kicking at some clubs for professional players.
When I played despite not being a very good team, we would have 4 or 5 of us fighting over the kicking who could nail them from the sidelines.
Some clubs you get to the second choice kicker and they are flat out hiting a barn door.
Bizarre.
When I played despite not being a very good team, we would have 4 or 5 of us fighting over the kicking who could nail them from the sidelines.
Some clubs you get to the second choice kicker and they are flat out hiting a barn door.
Bizarre.
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