NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 5 - Assemble the base price players

wolfking wrote:Funny, each year when things kick off we all think teams are going to look drastically different yet as team lists come closer, you come to realise that more and more teams will actually end up quite similar.

The Hynes injury is annoying because Hynes/Cleary would have been a decent differentiator

A lot of the rest depends on how many cheapies get named. If there's plenty then teams will spread the love around, but if only a couple of viable ones turn up then everyone jumps on them

ynot wrote:

Points, it seems to spit out a pretty decent starting team. Key bit is the projections.

This is with constraints for having at least one cover for each position and no more than 3 per team.

e.g.

Code:

    player_id           player_name  points   positions     price
0      504120         Nathan Cleary   68.70       [HLF]  957000.0
1      505904           Harry Grant   63.00       [HOK]  857000.0
2      504300            Payne Haas   60.30       [MID]  809000.0
3      500555         Joseph Tapine   59.60       [MID]  790000.0
4      505811          Adam Doueihi   59.40       [HLF]  771000.0
5      509397           Matt Burton   55.50       [HLF]  718000.0
9      507648       J'maine Hopgood   53.80       [EDG]  453000.0
6      500128          Adam Elliott   52.50       [MID]  606000.0
7      504678          Egan Butcher   50.00       [EDG]  561000.0
8      506460            Tanah Boyd   48.40  [HLF, HOK]  479000.0
10  100001560          Trent Loiero   43.40       [EDG]  389000.0
14     504788           Shawn Blore   40.00       [EDG]  250000.0
11     501287        Izaac Thompson   39.70       [CTR]  319000.0
20  100010997         Will Warbrick   36.35       [WFB]  230000.0
12     501341      Makahesi Makatoa   36.00       [MID]  302000.0
13     505828          Hayze Perham   35.75       [WFB]  298000.0
18  100004042          Paul Alamoti   35.10       [CTR]  230000.0
16     505631           Matt Doorey   35.05       [EDG]  250000.0
19  100006258          Isaiya Katoa   35.00       [HLF]  230000.0
15     505478  Harley Smith-Shields   33.90       [CTR]  250000.0
17     505642           Tommy Talau   30.30  [CTR, WFB]  250000.0

There are a few optimisers/solvers in FPL, it's a mixed bag because it's often garbage in, garbage out and then people just making poor analytical decisions on top anyway.

For NRLFF I think you've got a few advantages
- more complex point structure with more inputs should make predictions a little easier (less overall variance between predicted and actual)
- there seem to be less popular dumb ideas in NRLFF to cloud a model.

I can't code for shit, but I love the idea.

Milchcow wrote:
Also, the Roosters are traditionally poor in round 1. In recent years they've lost to the Knights and the Tigers (and Panthers and Souths)

Wouldn't be surprised for Dolphins to at least be quite competitive

I would be incredibly surprised if they were in any way competitive! Even for the first half.

What is the lowest ever opening score in fantasy?

Quick plug for the Wicky free open leagues with $500 in prizes across fantasy & supercoach again. Link to join below. Will also have weekly punting and fantasy/sc analysis content as well as a google sheet with teams, predicted mins, left/right side etc

https://linktr.ee/wickyai

Got our draft tonight at 9pm too. This may be really random but had another one last weekend and if you cbb doing prep for your draft, going team by team or position by position to see what players are left rather than just looking at the generic rankings/ADP they offer or averages.

Found Bateman that way, was so bloody happy I picked him up like that. Although since then Hynes (got him at no.1 pick) and Bateman have been announced to be out and potentially for a few weeks ffs!

Boozecluez wrote:What is the lowest ever opening score in fantasy?

I’ll be able to tell you on Sunday afternoon

ynot wrote:I think selecting a starting team for me is, potential guns with value:
Cleary
Haas
Burton
Doueihi
maybe Grant
maybe Tapine
maybe Robson

Probably some more names.

Easy picks:
Hopgood, Boyd, Garner/Hosking

And then sorting out this pile of potential value:
B. Smith
E. Katoa
Elliott
Frizell
Butcher bros
Cartwright
Doorey
Loiero
I. Katoa
Miller
Thompson
Blore
Preston
Perham
Alamoti
HSS
Warbrick
Talau
AKP
Sloan

and whatever else TLT throws up.

Is Boyd an easy pick?

wolfking wrote:Funny, each year when things kick off we all think teams are going to look drastically different yet as team lists come closer, you come to realise that more and more teams will actually end up quite similar.

I haven't made a squad yet and I've been ignoring any teams posted just to avoid building up any bias.

Kind of interested to see whether I just end up with the same squad as everyone else (within reason, there's a bunch of guns to debate and a bunch of cheapies that are going to be hit or miss).

I do have some ideas around who I will pick, a couple which are a little off the radar (but these aren't guys I expect to suddenly be 'guns', just provide solid scores until upgraded). Will see what happens at 4pm. I really need to make sure i keep some bank this year to make week 1 jumps from failed cheapie to someone who jumped 50k in a week much easier. Hopefully not tinkering forever trying to eek out 'value' will help with this.

I mainly want to pick a team that's fun to watch.

If people want to have a try at a team optimiser, this is what I have using excel's solver add-on

https://www.mediafire.com/file/ctfba3eahmhnk00/2023+Solver.xlsm/file

Plug in the projected scores and it will come up with the optimal combination for you (purely on a points per dollar basis, doesn't cater for byes or anything like that)

You have to actually come up with the projections yourself though (or ask ynot nicely for what his are)

The Pascoe Fiasco wrote:
Is Boyd an easy pick?

He's priced at 33 and averaged 47 from halfback (6 games, 1 try, bunch of goalkicking)

I think he can maintain a good base of kick metres next to Foran. I don't think the Titans are particularly a lot worse or better than last year so scores are a good chance of being maintainable

Always a risk of getting dropped if they have a few poor games which is the biggest concern

the_great_wobbler wrote:

Garner made about 10 tackles a game more than Kikau did in 2RF starts last year in similar minutes. They're different players but a good chunk of that is the panthers dominance up the middle compared to the tigers. You'd need him to make ground in attacking stats.

Don't get me wrong I do think Garner presents good value but it's not always better team = better fantasy scores. He was definitely plodding in the WCC game.

Garner’s big problem is his defense. He may have made 10 extra, but how many more did he miss?

my tv broke wrote:

I haven't made a squad yet and I've been ignoring any teams posted just to avoid building up any bias.

Kind of interested to see whether I just end up with the same squad as everyone else (within reason, there's a bunch of guns to debate and a bunch of cheapies that are going to be hit or miss).

I do have some ideas around who I will pick, a couple which are a little off the radar (but these aren't guys I expect to suddenly be 'guns', just provide solid scores until upgraded). Will see what happens at 4pm. I really need to make sure i keep some bank this year to make week 1 jumps from failed cheapie to someone who jumped 50k in a week much easier. Hopefully not tinkering forever trying to eek out 'value' will help with this.

I mainly want to pick a team that's fun to watch.

Is it still 4pm for us or will it be 3pm? Yeah, I've been put of the loop but kind of on purpose too for the same reasons. I'm not really up for it this year and the thought of not playing at all did actually cross my mind, but I want to try and have more 'fun' with it this year.

wolfking wrote:

Is it still 4pm for us or will it be 3pm?  Yeah, I've been put of the loop but kind of on purpose too for the same reasons.  I'm not really up for it this year and the thought of not playing at all did actually cross my mind, but I want to try and have more 'fun' with it this year.

Yeah, teamlists at 3pm BNE time. I figure I should have a team locked in by 4pm

on Facebook there are pictures of Luke Thompson being carried off at training

No word on what the injury is

mintotheimmortal wrote:

Sucks to be in NSW. Us QLDers get to see the team lists before you. we will warn you of any selection bombshells so you can prepare yourselves

Remember though, it’s 2023 in NSW!

Milchcow wrote:

The Hynes injury is annoying because Hynes/Cleary would have been a decent differentiator

A lot of the rest depends on how many cheapies get named. If there's plenty then teams will spread the love around, but if only a couple of viable ones turn up then everyone jumps on them

Yep, the Hynes thing was the big kicker and even the Angus news too. Things just fall into place then makes certain players almost too good to leave out while minimising choices across the board too, leaving teams more similar then they would have been. Really annoying as it was looking the most open it's been since I can remember. Now, not so much.

Milchcow wrote:

He's priced at 33 and averaged 47 from halfback (6 games, 1 try, bunch of goalkicking)

I think he can maintain a good base of kick metres next to Foran. I don't think the Titans are particularly a lot worse or better than last year so scores are a good chance of being maintainable

Always a risk of getting dropped if they have a few poor games which is the biggest concern

The HOK dual is the real kicker. Other than Smith, HOK doesn't have many value options. HLF is similar. Getting both positions with value in 1 player is too attractive to pass up.

my tv broke wrote:

Yeah, teamlists at 3pm BNE time. I figure I should have a team locked in by 4pm

I'll be at work but love this thinking. I'd like to have a team locked in relatively quick too. Don't want to stress 2 days over it.

Milchcow wrote:
on Facebook there are pictures of Luke Thompson being carried off at training

No word on what the injury is

Might grab both Pele and Preston then.

When I get home from work tonight it’ll be time too…..



I’ll be up late probs til after 3am catching up on podcasts and making a few drafts!