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    NRL Fantasy 2023 Part 1 - Just open up already

    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Wed Jan 11, 2023 4:35 am

    GarethEllisismyDad wrote:1st draft - of many many revisions to come, but I'm happy to have things ive overlooked crowd sourced and to get the discussion going further

    Hooker - robson
    mid, cotter, b.smith, tapine
    edg, garner, gilbert.
    hlf, cleary, hynes
    ctr , HTF, Thompson (souths)
    wfb, T.Martin, walsh, ponga,

    Extended squad
    Howarth edg,
    katoa, hlf
    sloan, wfb
    s.luke, hok
    blore, edg
    mooney, mid
    naden, wfb/ctr
    alamoti, ctr

    61k$ burning a hole

    I know there are lots of written and unwritten rules I’ve almost certainly contravened so feel free to point them out

    These comments are structural rather than about the individual players (who may or may not make TLT), but you have far, far too many min-price players. You'll be spending the first two months working out how to get half of them out of your squad with minimal if any profits, which will both ruin your cash gen *and* hamstring your ability to get in the mid-price cows who reveal themselves over the first month. On top of that, you'll need to play at least four and (given byes/injuries/suspensions) probably five or six every week for god knows what score.

    This season I think your bench needs to be deeper not shallower. Build with four min-price cows, five at the outside, three if conservative, and a couple of them need to be near guarantee moneymakers like Schneider last year. You can always trade down in the early weeks to a $240k cow you've missed, trading out a failed cow is more difficult. Multiple failed ones is impossible. And you can't have dead spots.
    GarethEllisismyDad
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    Post by GarethEllisismyDad Wed Jan 11, 2023 4:59 am

    rhinoceroo wrote:

    These comments are structural rather than about the individual players (who may or may not make TLT), but you have far, far too many min-price players. You'll be spending the first two months working out how to get half of them out of your squad with minimal if any profits, which will both ruin your cash gen *and* hamstring your ability to get in the mid-price cows who reveal themselves over the first month. On top of that, you'll need to play at least four and (given byes/injuries/suspensions) probably five or six every week for god knows what score.

    This season I think your bench needs to be deeper not shallower. Build with four min-price cows, five at the outside, three if conservative, and a couple of them need to be near guarantee moneymakers like Schneider last year. You can always trade down in the early weeks to a $240k cow you've missed, trading out a failed cow is more difficult. Multiple failed ones is impossible. And you can't have dead spots.

    Danke! These are the things I forgotten 👍

    Squad depth is gonna be a very unique problem with all the byes


    Last edited by GarethEllisismyDad on Wed Jan 11, 2023 5:02 am; edited 1 time in total
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Wed Jan 11, 2023 5:01 am

    GarethEllisismyDad wrote:

    Danke! These are the things I forgotten 👍

    Also, this doesnt appear to be an issue in your squad, but it will be very hard to play with more than maybe 2 players from the same team, as having 3 or 4 from the same team in a bye week could really impact heavily, if you are unlucky with other injuries and suspensions at the same time.
    rhinoceroo
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    Post by rhinoceroo Wed Jan 11, 2023 5:30 am

    mattnz wrote:

    Also, this doesnt appear to be an issue in your squad, but it will be very hard to play with more than maybe 2 players from the same team, as having 3 or 4 from the same team in a bye week could really impact heavily, if you are unlucky with other injuries and suspensions at the same time.

    I agree with this, but think it's still ok to have for example three or four Newcastle players as long as you know that one or two of them are moneymakers who you're sure you'll have traded out before their first bye in Round 10. Same with Parra and Round 14.

    What you ideally don't want is more than two *keepers* from any team, and be particularly careful of starting with more than one or two eg. Panthers with the early bye.
    multiple.scoregasms
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    Post by multiple.scoregasms Wed Jan 11, 2023 6:52 am

    Honey Badger wrote:Thoughts on Burton this year? Can he go to the next level and match Cleary and Hynes?
    Bulldogs should be better this season and with Kikau now outside him you'd expect them to attack even more down his edge.
    Im not 100% convinced about Hastings yet. With Ponga at 6 does he take too much ball away from Hastings? Id be more keen on Hastings if Ponga stays at fullback.

    Burton loses a lot of his appeal for me now that he has lost DPP. Was a very up and down scorer so should be able to catch a few lower ones and get him at a discount.

    I think whoever the Knights pair with Hastings won't be doing a lot of kicking. Will probably operate similar to Hunt at the Dragons, although I expect less missed tackles. I think I'd prefer Ponga at fullback for Hasting's scoring potential but shouldn't change a lot with Ponga at 6
    The Dolphin Conspiracies
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    Post by The Dolphin Conspiracies Wed Jan 11, 2023 7:47 am

    mattnz wrote:

    Both Cleary and Hynes looks like overkill. There are cheaper options that could get gun / near gun level scoring, which should provide value, like Douehi and Hastings.

    & Milf
    ShadowSabre
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    Post by ShadowSabre Wed Jan 11, 2023 7:51 am

    Condolences Rab!

    Anyone else taking the Dolphins as their second team this year? Always loved Bennett and love me something new and shiny, so think I'll try catch as many of their games as I can
    Honey Badger
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    Post by Honey Badger Wed Jan 11, 2023 8:10 am

    mattnz wrote:

    He will be first to move into the back line for any injuries as well. Really screwed up Mann's scoring last year.

    Also its not like the Warriors have any world class ctrs in their squad. On paper the team looks stronger with Niukore at ctr and Barnett starting on an edge
    Honey Badger
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    Post by Honey Badger Wed Jan 11, 2023 8:19 am

    GarethEllisismyDad wrote:anyone doing TPJ this year?

    Ha ha there is always the off chance he gets his shit together and becomes a fantasy gun. He doesnt need 80 mins to do this.
    If you start with him and he does play to his potential then you've got him and not chasing points. There would be nothing worse than using a trade on him to chase points and then trading him out again after he turns to mud after a couple of weeks.
    If you start with him and he turns out to be the same old TPJ then its an easy downgrade to a missed cash cow.
    White Lightning
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    Post by White Lightning Wed Jan 11, 2023 11:43 am

    GarethEllisismyDad wrote:1st draft - of many many revisions to come, but I'm happy to have things ive overlooked crowd sourced and to get the discussion going further

    Hooker - robson
    mid, cotter, b.smith, tapine
    edg, garner, gilbert.
    hlf, cleary, hynes
    ctr , HTF, Thompson (souths)
    wfb, T.Martin, walsh, ponga,

    Extended squad
    Howarth edg,
    katoa, hlf
    sloan, wfb
    s.luke, hok
    blore, edg
    mooney, mid
    naden, wfb/ctr
    alamoti, ctr

    61k$ burning a hole

    I know there are lots of written and unwritten rules I’ve almost certainly contravened so feel free to point them out

    as mattnz said having both cleary & hynes means your extended bench is made up of bottom dollar options.
    Holzman
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    Post by Holzman Wed Jan 11, 2023 11:43 am

    running with this at the moment

    Grant
    Haas Cotter Elliot
    D.Fifi Hopgood
    I.Thompson Alamoti/Skelton
    Miller CNK T.Martin

    Hoskin
    B.Smith
    AKP
    Stone

    Howarth
    VTW
    Blore
    Sloan

    considering just running Smith at Hooker with no cover though and turning Grant and a 220k guy into 2 500k mid pricers to balance it out. Or 3 400k mid pricers.
    White Lightning
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    Post by White Lightning Wed Jan 11, 2023 11:53 am

    obviously ponga will get dpp hlf/wfb so i'm trying him in the hlf position cause he's cheaper than hastings & gives an extra 113k to play with & i have turbo at wfb & when turbo has his bye rd 2 i'll play ponga at wfb now i just need another half to fill in for ponga.
    L-Jimmy
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    Post by L-Jimmy Wed Jan 11, 2023 11:59 am

    Camo123 wrote:

    MID is the position with the most depth this year, there’s 10-15 conceivable options

    Guns: Murray, Haas, Tapine, Cotter
    Mid Price: Carrigan, Tohu (if return to 2020/21 levels), Barnett, Elliot, Horsburgh, Gilbert, Nelson (if EDG), TPJ/Sutton, BSmith (if not picked at HOK)
    Cheaper: JWallace, Hopgood (if DPP on TLT), Makatoa

    This didn't get the love it deserved, good post.

    There are many slightly undervalued buys in mid - not least because there's lots of new mid positions from a new club.

    With the value in JWall, Hopgood, Gilbert, Sutton, BSmith, Horse there is little argument for gunning-up in the mids.

    Best case you go Haas/Murray/Trapine/RubenTheGorgeous and gain a 10-15 more points with sod all price growth (because these folks are not your daily C). But even then you're missing out on the still-good points from Gilbert&Collins&co, who will rise in value. And you've missed out on a gun elsewhere (halves? wfb?) where the value is lesser.

    It's sad because I wanted to roll with the mulleted energiser bunny from Townsville. But splurging elsewhere (Bird? Teddy?) is the way to go.
    Milchcow
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    Post by Milchcow Wed Jan 11, 2023 12:00 pm

    White Lightning wrote:obviously ponga will get dpp hlf/wfb so i'm trying him in the hlf position cause he's cheaper than hastings  & gives an extra 113k to play with & i have turbo at wfb & when turbo has his bye rd 2 i'll play ponga at wfb now i just need another half to fill in for ponga.

    Do you think Ponga will score well at half?

    If Hastings does all the kicking, where will Ponga get his points from? Are the Knights going to be an attacking powerhouse this year with plenty of TAs and TBs for Ponga?
    mattnz
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    Post by mattnz Wed Jan 11, 2023 12:08 pm

    Holzman wrote:running with this at the moment

    Grant
    Haas Cotter Elliot
    D.Fifi Hopgood
    I.Thompson Alamoti/Skelton
    Miller CNK T.Martin

    Hoskin
    B.Smith
    AKP
    Stone

    Howarth
    VTW
    Blore
    Sloan

    considering just running Smith at Hooker with no cover though and turning Grant and a 220k guy into 2 500k mid pricers to balance it out. Or 3 400k mid pricers.

    I wanted to do that as well, but Roosters have the bye in round 3, so you need some HOK cover.
    White Lightning
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    Post by White Lightning Wed Jan 11, 2023 12:12 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    Do you think Ponga will score well at half?

    If Hastings does all the kicking, where will Ponga get his points from? Are the Knights going to be an attacking powerhouse this year with plenty of TAs and TBs for Ponga?

    you make a great point
    my tv broke
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    Post by my tv broke Wed Jan 11, 2023 12:14 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    Do you think Ponga will score well at half?

    If Hastings does all the kicking, where will Ponga get his points from? Are the Knights going to be an attacking powerhouse this year with plenty of TAs and TBs for Ponga?

    I don't think Hastings will do all the kicking tbh.
    Camo123
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    Post by Camo123 Wed Jan 11, 2023 12:18 pm

    L-Jimmy wrote:

    This didn't get the love it deserved, good post.

    There are many slightly undervalued buys in mid - not least because there's lots of new mid positions from a new club.

    With the value in JWall, Hopgood, Gilbert, Sutton, BSmith, Horse there is little argument for gunning-up in the mids.

    Best case you go Haas/Murray/Trapine/RubenTheGorgeous and gain a 10-15 more points with sod all price growth (because these folks are not your daily C). But even then you're missing out on the still-good points from Gilbert&Collins&co, who will rise in value. And you've missed out on a gun elsewhere (halves? wfb?) where the value is lesser.

    It's sad because I wanted to roll with the mulleted energiser bunny from Townsville. But splurging elsewhere (Bird? Teddy?) is the way to go.

    With Cleary having an early bye gun MID are probably best captain options (unless you somehow have Cleary + Hynes and a deep squad) so you at least get value out of captaining in R3
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Wed Jan 11, 2023 12:57 pm

    Camo123 wrote:

    With Cleary having an early bye gun MID are probably best captain options (unless you somehow have Cleary + Hynes and a deep squad) so you at least get value out of captaining in R3

    Doueihi wouldn’t be a bad POD shout as a captain round 3 too.
    Rabbits21
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    Post by Rabbits21 Wed Jan 11, 2023 12:59 pm

    Milchcow wrote:

    Do you think Ponga will score well at half?

    If Hastings does all the kicking, where will Ponga get his points from? Are the Knights going to be an attacking powerhouse this year with plenty of TAs and TBs for Ponga?
    If you look at Knights draw early I think they’ll be in lots of high scoring games with lots of attacking opportunities.

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