NRL Fantasy 2022 Part 5 - RIP Shane Warne

King Assassin wrote:

Tariq is an origin edge... i doubt they leave him out unless hes got some sort of injury. guess we will find out tomorrow.

Calf might still be an issue.

But even if Hook doesn’t want him on the second row he’d be alright on the bench in the forward rotation. I can’t see him being out of the squad without an injury

One thing I learnt last year that you can never tempt fate in Fantasy. Had to play Leniu way too many times at MID for like 20 points because I thought EMG mid cover (at a bench forward at that) was good enough. Also, bringing in people who are a suspension risk or are filling in for a short-term injury/dropping is also tempting fate, and therefore due to Murphy's law it will indeed backfire (Hello Peachy and Starling). Finally, don't get tilted by the performance of zippy players in the wet (traded out Croker R1 and Avo R2, both technically disastrous moves because I traded Croker for Leniu and Avo for Davey who died in the first 4 mins, also necessitating I bring in Peachy to cover CTR who sucked).

Crichton's suspension risk is also why I want to start with iPap over him but money is tight. Cleary not risking his shoulder in R1 would free up some much needed cash to get solid cover.

Absolutely no way I'm risking starting off on the wrong foot off the bat because my team was unbalanced.

rectangle wrote:Is anyone looking at Hudson Young? Proven elite edge. Just a bit concerned with Ricky and forward rotation each game

Young is a great Edge, probably one of Mattnz sub-guns. 
At nearly $700k, do you select him over D. Fifi?
I can't see a team set-up where you could run both.
Fifita is the really scary prospect this year. I'd hate to watch Titans games without him in the Bludgers.

Mulvy wrote:Family guy S8E2 was just on the telly. My favourite episode.

Nice, season 7 and 8 of that show are my favorites

The Bludger#2 wrote:
Young is a great Edge, probably one of Mattnz sub-guns. 
At nearly $700k, do you select him over D. Fifi?
I can't see a team set-up where you could run both.
Fifita is the really scary prospect this year. I'd hate to watch Titans games without him in the Bludgers.

It’s a good point mate, I can see Hudson getting into the 58-62 average. Just the big name in Fifita, it is hard to look past

ytsb wrote:One thing I learnt last year that you can never tempt fate in Fantasy. Had to play Leniu way too many times at MID for like 20 points because I thought EMG mid cover (at a bench forward at that) was good enough. Also, bringing in people who are a suspension risk or are filling in for a short-term injury/dropping is also tempting fate, and therefore due to Murphy's law it will indeed backfire (Hello Peachy and Starling). Finally, don't get tilted by the performance of zippy players in the wet (traded out Croker R1 and Avo R2, both technically disastrous moves because I traded Croker for Leniu and Avo for Davey who died in the first 4 mins, also necessitating I bring in Peachy to cover CTR who sucked).

Crichton's suspension risk is also why I want to start with iPap over him but money is tight. Cleary not risking his shoulder in R1 would free up some much needed cash to get solid cover.

Absolutely no way I'm risking starting off on the wrong foot off the bat because my team was unbalanced.

I hear ya.
If Angus is a suspension risk - what's your view of Collins as a starting middle?
Priced at 51, only played 6 games in 2021. Or is the TB nerf going to hurt him more than others?

mattnz wrote:

Link?

https://twitter.com/BarryToohey/status/1500744779231277061?t=P9C9lzncU476pbAknRR_pA&s=19

I also added a link to my team tracker cause I'm a sheep

I don't have a new draft there for you to look at, but I've posted a couple of half baked thoughts about what rough team structure I wanna run in with. If anyone has anything to add there feel free, if you wanna drop by and call me a stupid dickhead who's shit at fantasy that's fine too (and probably accurate)

If I avoid Angus, go with Lolo (we do love a fallen gun), Tui on the bench can become Fermor and Nanai moves from the starting 13 to the bench. 
This does look more balanced, but Lolo's output is still up in the air.

Leaked team list Monday??? or just more accurate predictions than the journos???  

Penrith Panthers
1. Dylan Edwards 2. Robert Jennings 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Izack Tago 5. Brian To’o 6. Jarome Luai 7. Sean O’Sullivan 8. Moses Leota 9. Apisai Koroisau 10. James Fisher-Harris 11. Viliame Kikau 12. Liam Martin 13. Isaah Yeo 14. Mitch Kenny 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Matt Eisenhuth 17. Scott Sorensen

Manly Sea Eagles
1. Tom Trbojevic 2. Reuben Garrick 3. Brad Parker 4. Morgan Harper 5. Jason Saab 6. Kieran Foran 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Martin Taupau 9. Lachlan Croker 10. Taniela Paseka 11. Ethan Bullemor 12. Karl Lawton 13. Jake Trbojevic 14. Dylan Walker 15. Sean Keppie 16. Toafofoa Sipley 17. Morgan Boyle

Canberra Raiders
1. Xavier Savage 2. Nick Cotric 3. Sebastian Kris 4. Matthew Timoko 5. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad 6. Jack Wighton 7. Brad Schneider 8. Josh Papalii 9. Josh Hodgson 10. Joe Tapine 11. Hudson Young 12. Adam Elliott 13. Elliott Whitehead 14. Tom Starling 15. Ryan Sutton 16. Corey Horsburgh 17. Corey Harawira-Naera

Cronulla Sharks
1. Will Kennedy 2. Matt Ikuvalu 3. Ronaldo Mulitalo 4. Jesse Ramien 5. Sione Katoa 6. Matt Moylan 7. Nicho Hynes 8. Toby Rudolf 9. Blayke Brailey 10. Braden Hamlin-Uele 11. Briton Nikora 12. Teig Wilton 13. Dale Finucane 14. Connor Tracey 15. Andrew Fifita 16. Aiden Tolman 17. Siosifa Talakai

Brisbane Broncos
1. Jamayne Isaako 2. Selwyn Cobbo 3. Kotoni Staggs 4. Herbie Farnworth 5. Corey Oates 6. Albert Kelly 7. Billy Walters 8. Payne Haas 9. Jake Turpin 10. Ryan James 11. Kurt Capewell 12. Jordan Riki 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Tyrone Roberts 15. Rhys Kennedy 16. TC Robati 17. Keenan Palasia

South Sydney Rabbitohs
1. Blake Taffe 2. Alex Johnston 3. Jaxson Paulo 4. Campbell Graham 5. Josh Mansour 6. Cody Walker 7. Lachlan Ilias 8. Tevita Tatola 9. Damien Cook 10. Mark Nichols 11. Keaon Koloamatangi 12. Jai Arrow 13. Cameron Murray 14. Siliva Havili 15. Thomas Burgess 16. Hame Sele 17. Jacob Host

Sydney Roosters
1. James Tedesco 2. Daniel Tupou 3. Paul Momirovski 4. Joseph Manu 5. Kevin Naiqama 6. Luke Keary 7. Sam Walker 8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves 9. Connor Watson 10. Siosiua Taukeiaho 11. Angus Crichton 12. Sitili Tupouniua 13. Victor Radley 14. Adam Keighran 15. Nat Butcher 16. Lindsay Collins 17. Naufahu Whyte

Newcastle Knights
1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Enari Tuala 3. Dane Gagai 4. Bradman Best 5. Edrick Lee 6. Jake Clifford 7. Adam Clune 8. David Klemmer 9. Chris Randall 10. Daniel Saifiti 11. Tyson Frizell 12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon 13. Kurt Mann 14. Phoenix Crossland 15. Mitch Barnett 16. Jacob Saifiti 17. Leo Thompson

New Zealand Warriors
1. Channel Harris-Tavita 2. Marcelo Montoya 3. Rocco Berry 4. Viliami Vailea 5. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak 6. Kodi Nikorima 7. Shaun Johnson 8. Addin Fonua-Blake 9. Wayde Egan 10. Bunty Afoa 11. Eliesa Katoa 12. Euan Aitken 13. Josh Curran 14. Jazz Tevaga 15. Ben Murdoch-Masila 16. Aaron Pene 17. Bailey Sironen

St George Illawarra Dragons
1. Tyrell Sloan 2. Cody Ramsey 3. Moses Suli 4. Zac Lomax 5. Mikaele Ravalawa 6. Talatau Amone 7. Ben Hunt 8. Aaron Woods 9. Andrew McCullough 10. Francis Molo 11. Jack Bird 12. Jaydn Su’A 13. Jack de Belin 14. Moses Mbye 15. Blake Lawrie 16. Josh Kerr 17. Jack Gosiewki

West Tigers
1. Daine Laurie 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Oliver Gildart 4. James Roberts 5. Ken Maumalo 6. Jackson Hastings 7. Luke Brooks 8. Stefano Utoikamanu 9. Jake Simpkin 10. Alex Twal 11. Kelma Tuilagi 12. Luciano Leilua 13. Tyrone Peachey 14. Joe Ofahengaue 15. Thomas Mikaele 16. Alex Sayfarth 17. Luke Garner

Melbourne Storm
1. Ryan Papenhuyzen 2. George Jennings 3. Reimis Smith 4. Justin Olam 5. Xavier Coates 6. Nick Meaney 7. Jahrome Hughes 8. Jesse Bromwich 9. Tyran Wishart 10. Christian Welch 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Kenneath Bromwich 13. Brandon Smith 14. Nelson Asofa-Solomona 15. Tom Eisenhuth 16. Josh King 17. Trent Loiero

Parramatta Eels
1. Clint Gutherson 2. Sean Russell 3. Will Penisini 4. Waqa Blake 5. Bailey Simonsson 6. Dylan Brown 7. Mitchell Moses 8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Junior Paulo 11. Shaun Lane 12. Isaiah Papali’i 13. Ryan Matterson 14. Ray Stone 15. Nathan Brown 16. Makahesi Makatoa 17. Jake Arthur

Gold Coast Titans
1. Jayden Campbell 2. Phillip Sami 3. Brian Kelly 4. Patrick Herbert 5. Corey Thompson 6. AJ Brimson 7. Toby Sexton 8. Isaac Liu 9. Erin Clark 10. Moeaki Fotuaika 11. David Fifita 12. Beau Fermor 13. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 14. Tanah Boyd 15. Sam Lisone 16. Jarrod Wallace 17. Will Smith

North Queensland Cowboys
1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 2. Kyle Feldt 3. Valentine Holmes 4. Peta Hiku 5. Murray Taulagi 6. Tom Dearden 7. Chad Townsend 8. Coen Hess 9. Reece Robson 10. Jamayne Taunua-Brown 11. Tom Gilbert 12. Heilum Luki 13. Jason Taumalolo 14. Reuben Cotter 15. Jordan McLean 16. Mitchell Dunn 17. Jeremiah Nanai

Canterbury Bulldogs
1. Matt Dufty 2. Josh Addo-Carr 3. Brent Naden 4. Aaron Schoupp 5. Jayden Okunbor 6. Matt Burton 7. Jake Averillo 8. Paul Vaughan 9. Jeremy Marshall-King 10. Luke Thompson 11. Jack Hetherington 12. Tevita Pangai Jr 13. Josh Jackson 14. Bailey Biondi-Odo 15. Corey Waddell 16. Ava Seumanufagai 17. Max King

The Bludger#2 wrote:
I hear ya.
If Angus is a suspension risk - what's your view of Collins as a starting middle?
Priced at 51, only played 6 games in 2021. Or is the TB nerf going to hurt him more than others?

I looked really hard at Collins and SST this year.

I think our best 13 initially is JWH and SST to begin the game. I really don't think JWH can maintain big mins like he was forced to at some stages last year. He is only getting older. From memory SST is around 30 and JWH 33? I anticipate around 52.345475 minutes for SST and the same for JWH. I reckon Collins can get through 60 minutes easily. There are so many question marks around our forward rotation in my opinion which is why I can't start with SST or Collins at the moment.

In saying that, if Collins is starting and JWH is on the bench, I'll be starting with Collins for sure. That will indicate to me that JWH is passing on the torch, he has amazing value as an impact player and bringing so much energy to the team. Last year Collins was on track for his breakout year and I reckon this year he will solidify himself as a top prop. It's a matter of when he takes over from JWH, not if. My money's on some time in the first 10 rounds

NVM

rhinoceroo wrote:Can someone who is good at Maths work out whether it is worse to start with no player cover for one position (HOK) or one player cover for three positions (MID)?

Of the 272 players that take the field each week, on average 31 of them (or 11%) don't take the field the next week.

This wouldn't be an even distribution amongst players, some players are much more likely to play every week than others.
But assuming that the 11% chance of missing a game applies equally across all players.

With 1 hooker and no subs you have an 11% chance of needing to trade to field a team

With 3 MIDs and 1 sub you have an approx 3.4% chance of need a trade to field a team

So, unless you are confident your 1 hooker will play every week, its safer to have 1 MID cover than 0 hookers.

Mulvy wrote:Family guy S8E2 was just on the telly. My favourite episode.

But family guy sucks...

The Bludger#2 wrote:
I hear ya.
If Angus is a suspension risk - what's your view of Collins as a starting middle?
Priced at 51, only played 6 games in 2021. Or is the TB nerf going to hurt him more than others?

Robinson gives 0 fucks about your fantasy team. He will rest all of his middles during the season. If you pick Collins, SST or JWH, be prepared for 20 minute efforts, especially if the Roosters have a game won by half time. You have to play for the average, not the week to week scores.